I’ve had a few people send information about when the end of December/beginning of January list was actually issued. It seems most people were matched on the 4th, but that the list was actually issued on the 29th or 30th. I’ve heard from a few people matched off of it before our New Year holiday, so I’ve made a change to the chart showing 12/30 instead of 1/4.

This list was small, and it seems the WC community is expecting another. But, it also seems most of them do consider this either “the list” or “the first of a series”, and that it should be counted. So, I’m counting it.

Looking at the numbers: The shortest time frame is 23 days, the longest is 40. The average is 33, the median is 34, and we see 34 twice.

This means the soonest we would expect to see the next list (or series of lists) would be Thursday, June 25 and the latest would be Monday, July 13.

The most likely day for matches to be announced from the next shared list would be Monday, July 6.

A little look at the history. I’ve done this twice, the first time was March 28th when I said: “This means the outside windows should be something along the lines of Thursday, April 9th and Monday, May 11. The most likely time frame would be between Friday, April 24 and Wednesday, April 29 (inclusive).”

The next list arrived May 3rd, two business days after the most likely dates, and well within the window.

On May 4th I said “…the outside windows should be something along the lines of Thursday, May 21 and Wednesday, June 17th and the inside windows Monday, June 1st and Wednesday, June 10. The most likely days for release of the next new list would be Friday, June 5th and Monday, June 8th (all dates inclusive).”

And this list arrived June 2nd, three business days before the most likely and within the inside window.

I’ll say the same thing about these When posts as I do the NSN When posts – they are about trying to manage expectations, not so much about pinpointing the exact date.

The CCAA is not consistent enough for the exact date to be pinpointed, but it looks like we’re going to be able to pinpoint the window with some accuracy.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, June 3rd, 2009 at 12:08 pm and is filed under Analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.