Projections
The first chart (below) shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember that each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison.
Next we’ll take a look at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections.
This was a small month when you look at the poll numbers. Last month there were 1.6 months between referral batches (4/3 to 5/20), but it seemed they only sent what had already been matched before they held them back due to H1N1, as the cut off date was what had been the rumored cut off before they held onto them. I had hoped that would mean that we would see a batch that was 1.6 times the size of a batch from the first column. Based on the “missing time”, so to speak, I had hoped for a cut off closer to the 22nd or 23rd. That wasn’t rumored, it was just what I theorized should have been possible, because if they have a certain amount of babies’ files coming in to them on a weekly basis, then they should have had an extra couple of weeks of babies’ files to match.
It does appear that there were some expedited referrals in this batch, and I don’t have a handle yet on whether there were a few expedited referrals or a lot of them. If there were a lot, then that could explain things. It was a really small month though, and they don’t usually refer that many expedited families at once.
Okay, enough of analyzing what happened, let’s look forward. Here are my projections:
At this point I’m using mostly the old poll for projections. Probably 85% the old poll and 15% the new poll. As the new poll gets more history that will go to 50/50 for a little while and then the new poll will be primarily used.
You can always find your way back to the Projections and When posts by clicking on the Analysis category in the lower right hand column.
I’ll end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.
June 22nd, 2009 at 11:38 am
it’s been over two years since we’ve had a 2006 good case…
June 22nd, 2009 at 11:41 am
Oooo…bring on Horrid….or better!!
Conservatively optimistic with a 3/23/06 LID but still fraily convinced that August it will be.
Catherine
June 22nd, 2009 at 12:37 pm
It’s been over a year since they have done winter ’08 (horrid). RQ, how do you feel about the categories at this point? Really it is only the first two that seem to apply anymore. Are you holding out hope the others may be relevant some day, or is it just to maintain consistency (which I suspect). It just seems pointless to have the other categories, as they very well may never matter again.
June 22nd, 2009 at 12:40 pm
Congrates to everyone who recieved referals!!!! We are so happy for you. We are keeping our fingures crossed that we will be in next months batch of referals. Our LID is 3/27/06. I know it is a long shot, but I have more faith than a musterd seed! I can’t believe we are finaly this close!!!
http://www.ourchinaangel.com
June 22nd, 2009 at 12:51 pm
Scrapping in Ontario… I totally feel your pain and understand your angst. We are LID 3/22/06 and were so hoping for a 3/21 cut-off this month. Not only for the sake of those 3/21 families, but because it would have made us feel that much more confident about reaching 3/22 next month. Looks like 3/21 is a pretty good sized group. So is 3/22. But will the CCAA be able to get both of these LID’s in next month’s batch? I’m not sure, but I’m praying for it. (I just can’t take too many more sleepless nights over this!!)
How about we all pray just a little harder so we can knock out 3/21 (if it doesn’t make this month’s cut-off), 3/22 and 3/23 (and maybe a few more) with next month’s batch. We can all hope, right?
Congratulations to everyone who just got their referrals. And congrats to everyone who’s next!! (Hope that’s us!!!)
Phew. I never thought these last couple of months would have been the toughest to get through.
PS. Anyone else out there with a 3/22 cut-off? When do you think we’ll get our referrals? (yes… looking for a bit of encouragement, here :))
June 22nd, 2009 at 12:59 pm
emily’s mom – i think part of the reason that this month was small was because they couldn’t get through all of 3/21, but perhaps they did match some of it. maybe it was close to being included???
next month is one of those cut-offs where one day would be a very small month, whereas two would be on the large side.
i just can’t wait until they freaking finish march!
June 22nd, 2009 at 1:25 pm
Someone posted in my yahoo group that their agency told them that they believed that part of 3/21 had been matched. I have no idea what agency or if this agency is ever right or even what country it is in.
With a 3/27/06 LID the best case I think I can expect is August and the most realistic is September. Even so, that seems so close now!!
June 22nd, 2009 at 1:31 pm
Noendinsight… You couldn’t have summed it up any better with your last line! :) But you’re right. Doing 3/21 only next month would be kind of small… but also kind of large if they did both. Oh, I’m so hoping and praying for a larger month next month.
Suzanne… maybe the fact that “part of” 3/21 had been matched already means they can at least finish another day and a half to get to 3/22 next month. Thanks. That gives me a lot more hope. But you’re right. Whether it’s next month or the following… we’re all there already!!! Stay strong.
June 22nd, 2009 at 1:31 pm
My educated guess…
They probably did get part way into the 21st and couldn’t finish so they held them back for next month.
I am thinking that they will at least complete through the 22nd and possibly the 23rd. But if my LID was the 23rd… I would try very hard not to get my hopes up… all 4 days (21-24) are quite large.
June 22nd, 2009 at 1:35 pm
Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
March 23rd LID here, and I was sure we were finally next…
…until I read this update! :(
June 22nd, 2009 at 1:44 pm
Sewhopeful… I love your educated guess!!!! Thank you!! (even if it isn’t so, it’s helping me make it through the rest of today) :)
June 22nd, 2009 at 1:51 pm
I’m not waiting anymore but have been watching referrals very closely for years–lid 2/13/06– I think there’s reason for the 3/22 and 3/23 and even up to 3/27 families to get their hopes up for next month. CCAA has often had a larger (per poll results) referral month follow a small one. Especially with the rumors and belief that 3/21 was at least partially matched, it makes sense. In my opinion its also possible that another batch could be issued in less than 30 days. No inside info obviously, just an educated guess.
Hold on waiting families, it will happen.
susan
mom to georgiana
http://www.crowellgang.blogspot.com
June 22nd, 2009 at 1:56 pm
P12-
I was wondering where you were?
Whatever are we going to do when you aren’t hear to make us laugh?
M2I
http://www.MyChineseShamrock.blogspot.com
June 22nd, 2009 at 2:23 pm
Bless you, LadeeEsquire!!!! Bless you! You’ve just given so many of us such great hope for next month! I had heard the same in the past — about a fairly large referral following a relatively small one — I hope we get to experience it now.
Hope you are enjoying your little one. Emily will be our first little one. I’ll be a first time mom at 43. I’m so excited, and yes, ok, maybe a little terrified. But oh, I can’t wait!!! (These 48 months of labor have been gruelling!)
Another batch in less than 30 days would be icing on the cake. Hope you’re right.
June 22nd, 2009 at 2:31 pm
Here is my dream world 2cents. They have matched the rest of March, but in order to not overwhelm all agencies, CCAA, etc… they will be mailing them in small batches 2.5-3 weeks apart…over the next few months, then behind that the flood gates will open for the rest of you. At least as a 3/29 family, under smallest batch scenario, we should be home for the holidays…
June 22nd, 2009 at 2:32 pm
You can look back through the first chart to get an idea of how often a small batch is followed by a larger batch. Sometimes a larger batch follows, sometimes an average size batch follows, but rarely do we see two small months back to back when there are no holidays around.
There is reason to believe at least some of the 21st was matched and not mailed since they could not match the whole day. That is the reason you don’t see a once day batch in the first column of my projections.
June 22nd, 2009 at 2:48 pm
RQ,
It is pretty much do or die time for us. We are LID 1-07. We have to make a decision this week if we are to re-new paperwork. What do you think the odds are that after this very long month is done, things will speed up? I was hoping to see 8-12 days/per month average by 2010. Is this realistic in your opinion?
June 22nd, 2009 at 3:25 pm
Emily’s Mom… we are 3/22 as well, I am expecting referral next month.
ladeeesquire – I respectfully disagree… the 21 – 27th would include 178 poll families using the old poll… they haven’t averaged that number of families in years…
If we see a 3 day batch this time.. I think we will be very lucky.
June 22nd, 2009 at 3:27 pm
P12 – I have my fingers crossed for you!
June 22nd, 2009 at 3:31 pm
wait4ever – I wish I knew the answer, but I do not.
There is no way for me to know what will happen. There are rumors that things are about to pick up (in the fall, actually), but there is absolutely no way of knowing if that will happen. We’ve had rumors of a speed up before that didn’t happen.
Can they do 8 to 12 days a month? Yeah, I’m pretty sure they can. The question is will they do it, and of that I’m not sure at all.
I can’t imagine how bad it would hurt to let the paperwork expire and then not be eligible and have things pick up… but I also know that it’s hard to keep going through the motions when there is no end in sight.
June 22nd, 2009 at 3:44 pm
Sewhopeful… You’ve given me goosebumps! “Next month” sounds amazing! Like music to my ears. I really, really, really hope we’re in next month’s batch. And I had a feeling that the “22″ in your username meant you were a 3/22 family. :)
Is this your first time in China? Are you just jumping out of your skin or what? I’m trying to stay calm… just in case… (i’ve been too hopeful now too many years and don’t want to disappoint myself again)… but I really want to believe we’re next. If you’d like to chat some more send me a line at waiting4em@gmail.com! We’re almost there!!
June 22nd, 2009 at 3:58 pm
RQ,
Thanks. It is so hard. This economy is draining and we owe another $1400 with updates. It is amazing how your mind and heart can play tug-of-war with your emotions. Maybe things will pick up. Maybe not. Since the paperwork is only good 18 months, we would have to re-new early 2011. There is no way we would go before 2011. I know that. Another fee. Thanks for your input.
June 22nd, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Wait4Ever,
I was just going to chime in & say that if you meet the new regs, you could just let your I-171H expire. Yes, you will become a Hague case, but that shouldn’t be a problem as long as you meet both sets of regs~old & new. You can wait till you get closer & then just renew once instead of renewing multiple times. You keep your LID in China. Everything will remain the same, you will just be Hague. I am certainly no expert. However, this is what we have been advised from several agencies & others in the International Adoption Community.
June 22nd, 2009 at 4:29 pm
JourneytoMia,
Thanks. I was considering that too. The only thing is our agency is not Hague accredited. We would pay a lot in fees to transfer. Also, I read the 1-800 is more difficult and it could take 6 months to get back. I will consider it.
RQ,
I have a question. If we keep re-newing, and our paperwork is still good under the I600, would we have to do the I800 in 2013 anyway?? My fear is that we get a referral late 2012 and travel in 2013. I read everyone must be Hague 1-1-2013. Is that right?
June 22nd, 2009 at 4:29 pm
FWIW, our agency said, “Do NOT let your I600A paperwork expire – no matter what!” Our social worker said going through the I-800 work was much more extensive than the I600A. Our LID is soon, so we’re in a different situation on the quantity of renewals, but we’ve done a few! :)
June 22nd, 2009 at 5:27 pm
I’m another 3/22, and don’t worry, we will be in!!! I know it!
June 22nd, 2009 at 6:28 pm
sewhopeful~
you’re right and in re-reading my post (done at work and way too quickly obviously, sorry) I did not mean that I thought there was a good chance that the 3/27 families would get their referral next month. That would be fantastic but unlikely. What I meant to say was that there is some middle ground, that point between “spring 2008 small” aka 3/22 and “winter 2008 horrid” aka 3/27 that is likely. IMO, and I have no other info besides watching the referrals and looking at the polls just like all of us, think its likely that there will be a larger than “spring 2008 small” batch and that referrals will go through some date between 3/22 and 3/27 and not be a teeny, tiny 1 or 2 day batch.
Its horrible that 3-4 days is something we’ve come to wish for. sigh.
susan
June 22nd, 2009 at 7:31 pm
justwaiting — yay!! thanks for that vote of confidence! love to hear those words, “we will be in”! and glad to meet another fellow 3/22′er!!
June 22nd, 2009 at 8:36 pm
wait4ever,
You are in the same boat that so many us have been in during this painful wait. I can’t tell you how many long conversations my wife and I have had over the last 3 years about bailing, changing countries, or going domestic (sounds like “going postal”).
Everyone’s situation is different financially but if you can swing it I would not let your I-600a expire. There are many people hung up in the I-800 quagmire right now.
The reason we kept sticking it out is during those long conversations we were never able to come up with a good alternate solution to build our family. What other country can you go to? How stable is that other countries program? What hoops do they make you jump through? We were always worried that we would just end up in a different slow line or even worse, a line that would completely stop.
I really feel for you, good luck to you…and all of us for that matter.
Big D
June 22nd, 2009 at 10:19 pm
ladeeesquire –
Thanks for not being offended that I didn’t agree. I just didn’t want people with 27 LID’s getting the idea that they might be next.
And yes, I agree with RQ that they could do much bigger batches… but for whatever reason… they are choosing not to at this time. (but once I’m referred it will speed up! : )
It IS sad that a 3 or 4 day batch would be a big deal…
June 23rd, 2009 at 2:45 am
DO NOT< I REPEAT< DO NOT let your I600/I171H expire! Our agency sent our in 5 days late in April 08 and we just now got approved for our I800a. Granted we are Americans living overseas but it took a long time and more than enough frustration! We had to get police and Child abuse clearances for every state and country that we have lived in since the age of 18. That took a long time! PLUS we had to pay the fees even though it was a renewal for the I600. I imagine that you will have to pay fees again just because it is a I800a application. Avoid it if you can!
June 23rd, 2009 at 10:00 am
My 2 cents, we decided to let our first I600 expire when we realized one more would not do it for us. Our agency (large China only) actually supported/encouraged it. We did the Hague training online, no problem. It has been one less thing to worry about as we would be looking at doing our third round now. My social worker has not expressed that the I800 has been any big deal and I hear it is taking about the same time to get back, at least w/ our local USCIS. I guess we won’t know if it was the right decision until later but it’s been nice to not have to put out the extra money and experience the extra stress.