When
The last 12 referral batches arrived at 28, 35, 22, 27, 37, 36, 18, 24, 39, 32, 47, 30 days.
The average is 31 days. The shortest interval is 18 days and the longest is 47. But, the 47 was hopefully an anomaly, meaning we should probably use 39 as the longest. (Though, with the current H1N1 rules still so undefined, it’s hard to say.)
That would mean the soonest we’d expect to see them would be Tuesday, July 7 and the latest would be Tuesday, July 28.
The most likely arrival date based on time between referrals would be Monday, July 20.
The most likely arrival date for those who believe they always arrive on the first of the month would be July 1. I’m not holding my breath on that one, though.
Of course, the July 20th date isn’t even as much of a “probably close” as I think it normally is. With the current pandemic stuff going on, things are even less predictable than normal.
These When posts are about managing expectations. If we expect them to arrive around July 20th then we’d probably start seeing early rumors as early as July 9th, and we’d see possibly accurate rumors the week of July 13th.
June 23rd, 2009 at 8:40 am
well, I got an email this morning UK time from BLAS confirming CCAA sent the referral yesterday, and to expect it in a couple of days??? Let’s hope for TOMORROW!!!!
June 23rd, 2009 at 9:26 am
mainz1 – huh?? is this for this last batch?
I’m allowing myself to be hopeful for sometime between the 17th and the 24th…
June 23rd, 2009 at 9:31 am
Yes, that would be for the most recent batch, things are done differently in the UK and it takes about a week longer for their referrals to arrive. When I do my “When” posts, the “when” in question is when we will get reports of the first phone calls being made. In reality, phone calls being made stretch out two to three weeks for the various countries, some of the referral packets have to go through a lot of red tape in the receiving country before the family actually gets their phone call (or mail delivery).
June 23rd, 2009 at 1:03 pm
Well it can’t happen soon enough! I have been on this ride for along time and looking forward to getting off with the next batch!! I think mid July is the most likely time to receive the next batch. So until then, I will busy myself with those final planning details I have had on the back burner for three years!!!!
Waiting in Texas
3- 21 -2006