When
The last 12 referral batches arrived at 22, 27, 27, 37, 36, 18, 24, 39, 32, 47, 30, and 32 days.
The average is 31 days, the median is 31 days, and we see both 27 and 32 twice. The shortest interval is 18 days and the longest is 47. But, the 47 was hopefully an anomaly due to H1N1, meaning we should probably use 39 as the longest.
That would mean the soonest we’d expect to see them would be Friday, August 7 and the latest would be Friday, August 28.
The most likely arrival date based on time between referrals would be Friday, August 21.
The most likely arrival date for those who believe they always arrive on the first of the month would be August 1 or perhaps September 1. Again, I’m not holding my breath on that one.
These When posts are about managing expectations. If we expect them to arrive around August 21st then we could start seeing early rumors as early as August 7th, and we’d see possibly accurate rumors somewhere around August 13th or 14th.
July 24th, 2009 at 10:05 am
RQ, I notice you’ve lately been throwing in something like: “The most likely arrival date for those who believe they always arrive on the first of the month would be August 1 or perhaps September 1. . . .” Why would anyone think that?
Nancy
July 24th, 2009 at 10:06 am
I’m curious if there is any correlation to referrals arriving on certain days of the week. I think they tend to arrive later in the week, like a Thursday or Friday, but I might be making that up.
July 24th, 2009 at 10:53 am
On my calendar 8/21 is a Friday and 8/19 is Wednesday.
July 24th, 2009 at 10:53 am
Metonda: I think you are right. I haven’t really been following the statistics (I’m just not a detailed-orientated person and sometimes that gets me into trouble) but it seems that the CCAA tends to announce the the agencies that matches are being mailed on Thursday or Friday and that we are all waiting on pins and needles throughout the weekend.
I think they are just trying to drive us all nuts personally. Who, me, paranoid?
July 24th, 2009 at 11:03 am
Just a big THANK YOU to RQ for this site and all the energy you put into it. I’m not sure if you can even imagine what it means to me to even just have a projection for rumor arrivals, no less everything else you provide. Thank you!!!
July 24th, 2009 at 11:28 am
Did anyone else see the ticker on NBC News today. It said that China had lifted it’s long standing policy of limiting families to one child. I was looking for more news but that seemed to be it. Seems kind of big news for one line on the Today Show!
July 24th, 2009 at 12:08 pm
Nancy – I know nn the past, some forum members have pointed out that more accurate predictions could be made by looking at historical referral dates relative to the first day of the month. Perhaps RQ understood that to mean on the first day of the month. Just my guess.
July 24th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
Nancy: Because for about a year or so the time frames for referral arrival went back and forth around the first, some people thought the CCAA was aiming for the first. I tried to explain that it’s based on number of days in between, and even tried to make a post explaining that it moves around over time ( http://chinaadopttalk.com/2008/12/16/speculation-on-referral-arrival/ ) but there are those who still didn’t think I had a clue. They got really angry every time I posted another When post, but once I started putting that bit into the When posts it seemed to placate them a bit and the anger wasn’t so bad.
It may very well move around so it goes back to the first at some point. But over time it makes more sense to look at days between and not at the time of the month.
July 24th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
Here is more information about China lifting the one child policy.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6726244.ece
July 24th, 2009 at 9:38 pm
The way I read the article it is only in one province, not country wide.
July 25th, 2009 at 8:54 am
I don’t know how RQ does it but she was pretty close in her projections for us receiving referrals about the 20th of July. We actually got the phone call on the 22nd, and in our part of Canada we are usually behind the US and Eastern Canada. All I can say is keep up the good work, the life line for all of us, RQ!! By the way, IT IS WELL WORTH THE WAIT, even if it didn’t seem so during the wait. Keep your chins up!!
July 25th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
Patiently Hopeful, you are right. Without RQ, I would be traveling this road alone. My agency is in another state, and I only know one other person that is going through this process lives in another state also. I get an email once a month from my agency telling us what dates have been covered this month and which files have been reviewed. But other than that, I (DH included) am on my own. RQ has taught me so much about how the process works. I can’t imagine going through this process without her.
testofpatience
LID 1/22/09
July 25th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
The way I read the recent news articles on allowing more than one child is that the Shanghai local govt is only encouraging couples to take advantage of a change of policy that has been in place for a while already. It does not sound like a new change in policy, and a prod to get citizens to follow guidelines already there.
July 25th, 2009 at 9:56 pm
The lifting of one child policy is limited to couples who both are the only child. It is old news. I heard about it last year. It started in other provinces. Shanghai is rather strict with the one child policy because of its large population (19 mil).
They also allow couples to have a second child if the first is girl in the rural area in the attempt to balance the male and female ratio. The minorities can also allow to have two children.
July 25th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
RQ,
I just wanted to take the time and thank you for your website.
I highly recommend your site to all prospective adoptive parents and it becomes an absolute necessity in the last 6 months.
We just received our referral and it was the rumor queen that kept me going and believing that we would one day see our child.
We waited 3 years and 4 months from LID> but really 4 years total.
Initially we were told 9 months etc… It was recommended that I not look at the RQ or listen to rumors however over time your site was the only true and accurate source of information.
I have told others that your site may say “rumor” but over time it has been fact almost 100% of the time.
Thank you so much.