No News Yet
I have not seen anyone announcing phone calls as of yet.
An American agency says they have a package arriving Friday.
There has been a lot of talk about what happens when we get through March, since April has a lot less people logged in than March. I would like to remind everyone about what happened with the November and December of ’05 referrals. November was a huge month, and the assumption was that once they got through November, we’d see them referring a lot more days each month. However, once the CCAA got through November, they dropped the number of referrals per month by half (and some months much less than half), which meant we did not see an increase in the number of days referred.
So while we have two positives that give us hope for seeing more days referred per month once we are through March (1. Polls show less people logged in and 2. Rumors that things are going to speed up in the “fall”), I would like to point out that it is not a given. We thought it was a given once before and we were shown differently.
I really don’t want to be a downer, I’m just trying to point out what has happened, and therefore what could possibly happen again.
It is my hope, based on statements from more than a dozen agencies, that we will soon begin to see more referrals per month, not less. But I feel the need to point out that it is not a sure thing.
August 19th, 2009 at 10:40 am
I know there has much discussion recently about the disproportion of males vs females in Chinese society. Is it feasible that fewer referrals will continue to be the norm as China is willing to raise girls in their orphanages so they will someday companions/spouses?
August 19th, 2009 at 10:49 am
The gender discrepancy is in the millions, per year. The 6,000 or so NSN adoptions a year, not all of which are female, are barely a fraction of a percentage of that.
August 19th, 2009 at 10:57 am
RQ, thanks for you words of caution. Trying to figure out what the Chinese government will do is a kin to trying to catch and hold on to a live fish with one’s hands covered in butter or oil.
I do hope for the speed up but the reality is that there is no guarantee. I guess ultimately all we can do is take it to the Lord in prayer. I still hope to see our little girl’s face before the end of 2010.
LID: 6/22/06
August 19th, 2009 at 11:05 am
“from more than a dozen agencies” does give me some hope. i didn’t realize it was that many.
any further slowing down at this point will be an unofficial closure of the NSN program IMO.
August 19th, 2009 at 11:24 am
I believe the “unofficial” closure has already begun, IMO. I work for an adoption agency and we have turned in exactly 2 NSN Dossiers in the last 15 months. we have turned in over a dozen SN. With most agencies preporting HIGH attrition numbers for anyone with a LID of 2007 and 2008, I think it’s the beginning (or maybe the middle) of the end. I don’t think china will “shut it down” and I DO BELIEVE that everyone logged in WILL be refererd a child, but seriously who wants to endure a 5-7 YEAR wait? Very few. My heart goes out to all those children wanting a asian sibling and are not open to SN, (wether by choice or by default).
August 19th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
Friday! UGH! My agency is closed on Fridays.
August 19th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
perhaps i’m mistaken…but haven’t we seen the beginning of the speedup already?
the math i’ve seen most recently said that about 30 percent more referrals are going out now than a year or so ago (based on rq poll numbers).
i take that as a sign that it’s already here, and will only get better.
August 19th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
tearoses1 – I haven’t actually done the numbers to figure it out, but just glancing at them does not show me a marked increase. You can see poll numbers for each referral batch on the chart on this post:
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2009/07/23/projections-25/
August 19th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
our agency e-mailed us today said they have something on the way and it should be here on friday HOPE ITS REFERRALS
August 19th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
onemoregirl, I think you are right on in your assessment.
August 19th, 2009 at 8:17 pm
It is thoughtful to compare 2005 with the current climate of referrals. This is very interesting. Would RQ or anyone else know if in November of 2005, there were agency’s that stated there would be a speed up for December 2005? Or were agency’s quiet with no comment? Are the recent comments by a dozen agency’s, of a speed up, very unique comments or has this happened in the past? In the 4 years we have been involved, our agency has never said there would be a speed up until recently. I would love to hear from others. Warm Aloha!
August 19th, 2009 at 9:38 pm
with my 2/2006 lid, I was watching the 11/05 referrals closely. Everyone was saying there was going to be a speed up after the “monster month of november” was referred. Come to think of it, they said that about the “monster month of sept 2005 also. If I recall correctly, 9/29 was a HUGE day!!! Jan 2006 was supposed to small and feb even smaller due to cny. I believe they still took 4-5 mos each to refer.
Sadly, I think the rumors of a “speed up in the fall” or “after March” are coming from RQ’s numbers themselves. It seems that most believe that once we clear march things will start to move. I hope for waiting families that’s true but I believe more likely is that the nsn referral numbers will decrease with ccaa’s new fiscal year which begins 12/1.
Hope I’m wrong.
susan
http://www.crowellgang.blogspot.com
August 19th, 2009 at 9:49 pm
Last month I was experiencing the same emotions many of you are and they are intense labor pains let me tell you!! Hang in there!!
I’m really hoping that there are TA’s in those packages too! I’m just about DYING here to go get my little girl!!!! This part of the wait is agony now that we’ve seen her sweet face!
Sharon
LID 3/21/06
Matched 3/22/09
August 19th, 2009 at 9:54 pm
Thank you for the info Susan. When you say, “sadly, I think the rumors of a ‘speed up in the fall’ or ‘after March’ are coming from RQ’s numbers themselves.” I do not quite understand what you mean. Sorry. I am new here. And when you say, “everyone” was saying…”, do you mean Agency’s or waiting families? Big difference between them.
Now, if there are a dozen agency’s who are stating, “Yes” there will be a speed up and these agency’s have never said this before…well then there is a bit more weight to the 12 statements. But if most agency’s always say there will be a speed up, then there is no weight. Again, our agency has never said there was going to be a speed up. They always said the opposite. They have said, there will be delays that will continue to get longer. So to have them say differently, well it seems a bit more possible. This is fun!
August 19th, 2009 at 10:56 pm
mauigirl~
what I mean is that I think that most of the agencies get their info from RQ. They look at the RQ numbers, see that march is big and extrapolate that after march is referred there will be a speed up. Everyone’s been talking about how big march is, for years in fact. There is no doubt that the numbers after march are smaller, the unknown is the number of children that will be made available. I don’t think its prudent to make predictions re: this year’s numbers. I think you have to assume that the number of nsn referrals will again decrease, possibly by 20-25% or so again.
I really hope there’s a speed up or even a plateau. I’m keeping all crossables crossed!!!
August 20th, 2009 at 12:41 am
Thank you ladeeesquire for all the great info. I do have to add, that our very big all China Adoption Agency and another Hawaii Agency who did our homestudy, has told us NOT to read RQ website. Their info does not come from this website. That I do know for sure. But of course, I have been reading RQ for years and love RQ! The website is very helpful in a therapeutic kinda way. Thank you RQ! And Thank you ladeeesquire for sharing and letting me share too. It has been a long road and I know it is so worth the wait. Wishing you Warm Aloha from Hawaii.
August 20th, 2009 at 3:43 am
Hmm… You got me thinking Ladeeesquire… IF it’s true that the CCAA has a ceiling of how many children can be adopted internationally (that including SN) and IF they also are trying to refocus from NSN to SN (which you could say they already did), then this would be a “good” opportunity to cut NSN a little bit more and to increase the number of SN babies made paper ready. I really don’t know what to say, if that’s the case. Good thing if more SN kids get families. Bad thing if less NSN do. How could anyone put those against each other and compare? No one can. I deeply hope this is not what the CCAA is doing!
I hope for an increase in NSN referrals, given there really are more babies they can’t place nationally, and I even more hope for an increase of SN referrals, since it’s a sure thing they are out there, and they are unfortunately harder to place within China!
August 20th, 2009 at 10:11 am
If you think about this it really speaks to the heartlessness of the Chinese government or maybe I should say the way in which they are “effectively” ending the NSN program. They are choosing the method that is most painful to those that have accepted the privilege, in good faith, to adopt their orphaned children.
If they want to end the program then they should simply announce a date when they will no longer accept NSN and or SN dossiers. Then match the people that got their dossier in before the date as quickly as possible.
This current course that the Chinese government has taken has no positives and only has a negative impact on the image of the Chinese government in that they are causing orphans that would have a forever family to be raised in an orphanage and inflicting all of this unnecessary pain on waiting parents by slowing the referrals to a trickle.
August 20th, 2009 at 10:57 am
“lightiv says:
… If they want to end the program then they should simply announce a date when they will no longer accept NSN and or SN dossiers. Then match the people that got their dossier in before the date as quickly as possible.”
In essence they DID do that with the deadline for the implementation of the new requirements. I don’t think it is to end the program… just decrease it. I truly believe that everyone will eventually be matched with a child who needs a family… those who are SN will (all other things being the same) be matched more quickly. The question remains: Are people willing to wait the (now) 5-7 years it will probably take if you are just starting out. For some, the answer is YES. For others, NO. I know that for me, I would DEFINITELY wait again, in a heartbeat, if I could be matched with a Chinese sister for my daughter. Unfortunately, as a single, the possibility was removed on May 1st, 2007. (And, of course, it IS much easier to say that already having a child home.)
As always, all we can do is wait (in frustration) and see.
August 20th, 2009 at 11:01 am
PS I think it is prudent to recognize that some (not all) agencies will tell you what you “want” to hear, regardless of whether or not that information is based in fact. The best thing to do is to look at the data and see the numbers for yourself. It will provide you with a much more realistic outlook.
M2I
http://www.MyChineseShamrock.blogspot.com
August 20th, 2009 at 11:21 am
I was thinking….could it be that the reason that the twelve agencies are saying that there will be a speed up is because they NEED revenue? I mean, we all know that the agencies are suffering financially greatly due to this slow down. There aren’t very many willing to hop on the NSN train to China right now. This has meant a HUGE decrease in new apps., meaning less income for the agency. Why wouldn’t they say a speed up is coming to try & encourage PAP’s to get on board?
August 20th, 2009 at 11:33 am
HI
We let our paperwork expire. This would have been the third time to re-new. LID 1-07. Agencies will say lots of things to get you to stay in a program. Ours said there would be a great spped up after the Olympics. Gave them another $600.00 because she was sure we would have our baby in the summer of 2009. Well, here we are. We asked for the $600 back (we figured that was the least they could due and they said no. The money was earned. Keep in mind at that point we were at the same jobs and home. I really don’t believe that we will see more than 6 days referred at a time. That is just how the program is. They did ask us if we wanted to pay $1600 for updates and another $700 on top of that to transfer for a SN child. Well, that is not what we signed up for. Plus, what if that child needs extra $$$ for a lifetime of medical care. We are not rich. I guess if you want a baby these days, you have to be. Sorry, but I needed to more on. We bought a new home(this one without a nursery), and I am going back to school in a year or two, when I get money saved. I will have to learn to live without being a mother.
August 20th, 2009 at 11:45 am
I was wondering if the CCAA reads this web site and your predictions? If you tried some reverse psychology and started predicting huge batches would that work?
August 20th, 2009 at 12:15 pm
It is good to remember what happened with the January and February referrals after the big 2005 months were finished. I had been getting my hopes up that things would appear to speed up after March was done. Sigh…
August 20th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
wait4ever, it breaks my heart to read your story. Though it seems that you have moved on already you might consider other programs such as Ethiopia and Haiti. I think they have reasonable wait times from 12 to 24 months.
August 20th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
Of course CCAA checks out this site as well as all other sites that deal with Adoptions in China. I am sure they are real thrilled with the way some people talking about China and CCAA, especially when it is the US government making the change, but China gets blamed. Maybe if people stopped criticizing China so much, things would get better.
August 20th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
WaitingInMT~ I don’t think China or the CCAA care what waiting paps on RQ are saying. “China” has bigger fish to fry and I believe that CCAA believes they are doing the best they can for the orphans of China as a whole.
I wish APs and PAPs could wield some influence with our words or actions but I haven’t seen any evidence of it so far.
August 20th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
Oh ya sure, now the wait is our fault. If we would only put on a happy face they would just start referring thousands of children. So you are basically saying the CCAA is keeping chldren in orphanages longer just to punish us. Somehow I don’t think that is the case.
August 20th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
WaitingInMT, I’m missing something here. What do you mean when you say it’s the US government making the change?
wait4ever, I could have written your post. We were LID 11/06 and just let our paperwork expire. My husband said he just couldn’t do it anymore. Almost two years ago, when we were requesting our free extension, I asked our agency if we should let it lapse, since it looked like we’d be waiting another couple of years and would just need to renew again anyway. Our agency said then that we wouldn’t be waiting that long. Right.
Now I’m learning that once we formally withdraw our Dossier from China, we’re no longer eligible to adopt from China at any time in the future.
As for other programs that appear stable right now…we thought China was stable when we started the process, and look what happened. Time to move on, and stop yearning for what might never be.
August 20th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
lightiv,
No I think we are done. I went under yrs. of infertility “stuff”, shots, meds, ect. before China. It is going on 10 yrs. now. My husband feels cheated and this whole thing is a sham so I could never get him on board with starting over. Plus, we would have to find another agency(ours isn’t with the Hague). That would be another $5,000 just to get started again. The luck I seem to have is all bad. My luck we would start, wait, and the program would close. Thanks for thinking of me though.
August 20th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Yes, there are a lot of us in the same boat. It is a shame because of all we have to go through and we know what a wonderful life we could give to a child…the OCTOMOM show came on last and I had to turn the channel…and then vomit.