Attrition Results
We can’t get attrition numbers from a poll, since people who have left the program aren’t likely to be hanging out here anymore to tell us about it on a poll. The best way I’ve been able to come up with for getting some kind of snapshot of how many people remain in the NSN program is to ask people how many started out in their LID group and how many remain. Which is how we came to these numbers.
Also, before I have three dozen comments and emails and PM’s telling me these numbers can’t be right because there is no way I know about everyone… I know that. But the percentages should be in the right ballpark. Especially the 2006 and 2007 numbers, because we have so many respondents for those years. The 2008 and 2009 numbers? Maybe not so much, but I’ve included them (below) anyway because I would want to see them if I had a LID in those years, even if I knew they weren’t as accurate.
I know that many of you would be okay with either a Percent Remaining or a Percent Gone column, but we’ve got a lot of people who have issues with fractions and percentages and they’ve told me they appreciate my including both columns. They tell me that things are clearer to them when they can see both numbers. So, I’ve included both.
For those who don’t understand: looking at the March line, of those who started out in the NSN program, 54% remain in the program awaiting their NSN referral and 46% are no longer waiting for a referral.
I should also point out that the March 06 numbers only show the end of the month – the LID’s not yet referred.
Every time I do this people try to explain to me why people drop out. I understand that some have switched to the SN program, others have adopted from another country, some had life changes that made them ineligible to adopt a child, etc. I wasn’t trying to gather data on that with this exercise, just trying to see how many people have pulled out of the NSN line, and how many remain.
And that brings us to the next chart, where we see things as they look quarterly. (The March of ’06 numbers are not on this chart.)
As I said before, I feel we are within a few percentage points of being accurate with the ’06 and ’07 numbers, but the ’08 and ’09 numbers are likely not that accurate. Not only because there are fewer data points, but because the LID groups are smaller. When there are lots of LID groups of 2 and 3 people, we’re not going to hear from many of the groups where all have dropped out.
And finally, we have the yearly numbers (again, not including March). I included numbers and percentages here so you can get an idea of the size of the data set we’re working with.
Data came in from 81 agencies (be they private adoption agency or government run agency/ department), and from 9 different countries. I tried to look at it by country, but the data didn’t support that kind of analysis – if I’d had a bunch of different country data all within a few months of each other I could have done it, but that wasn’t the case.
What does this mean for the overall program? It means the backlog may be down around the 17,000 mark now. I need to do another post where I figure the backlog, but just looking at the figures I did last time and figuring the new backlog numbers in rough numbers in my head brings me to somewhere around 17,000 or 18,000 dossiers. If the CCAA continues to refer around 6,000 NSN babies a year, then that would be another three years to get through the current backlog. But that’s me figuring the backlog in my head, which is probably not a great idea. Plus, if they continue to increase the SN program and decrease the NSN program then that 6,000 number won’t remain steady. So don’t give that three year guesstimate much credence at this point – we’ll revisit that later.
October 9th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Thank you RQ. Once again your analysis is a great help for those waiting. I just received my daughter’s referral in August but these numbers are still so important as I have a lot of great friends who are waiting. I cannot wait to celebrate with them!!
Thanks for ALL you do!!
Catherine
October 9th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
I can’t believe March 06 still has 54% remaining, with less than one week of referrals left for that month!!! WOW.
Were most of the LIDs for March in the last few days of March?
I hope your figures are close on the backlog for all of it being around 3 years now, RQ. We’re an April 07 LID and we’re expecting another 2-3 year wait, so your figures fit in with mine.
October 9th, 2009 at 4:36 pm
KarenInCa,
It just means that of the people who started with a March LID in the last week of March (the ones not referred yet), 54% are still waiting.
October 9th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
KarenInCa,
I think that percentage for March 06 is just the people who are left, not the whole month. At least I hope that is what that means, since I am one of those people. (: What I mean is, is that the only people who took the survey are the ones who have LIDs that have not been referred. Is that correct RQ?
Thanks for the info RQ. It is very interesting to see how the wait is changing things.
chinapromise
3/29/06
“watching and waiting to see what the next batch of referrals bring”
October 9th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
RQ – the last numbers available – the 6,000 worldwide – had about 50% SN. that’s according to the JCICS.
According to both my agency and a friend’s agency, the C2A2 recently said 60% are now SN. So if they do the same number going forward, that’s 2,400 NSN and it would take 7-8 years to get through the backlog.
October 9th, 2009 at 5:57 pm
Just to clarify, RQ wrote at paragraphs 4 & 5:
“For those who don’t understand: looking at the March line, of those who started out in the NSN program, 54% remain in the program awaiting their NSN referral and 46% are no longer waiting for a referral.
I should also point out that the March 06 numbers only show the end of the month – the LID’s not yet referred.”
October 9th, 2009 at 6:00 pm
RQ,
Thank you, as always for this information. This is super helpful in understanding the big picture, even though I am focused on the immediate future with a LID of 3-29-06. The attrition results show a much larger group of folks in my program remaining in the program overall than the group with my agency. My agency is at 60+% attrition, though I know many in my LID group have gone SN. What does this mean? I think it means that my agency is moving families to the SN group with great efficiency. I sort of knew this. We tried it too, but it didn’t work for our family.
Again RQ Thanks!
Valuable information.
Firelamb
October 9th, 2009 at 8:12 pm
wow – i just realized that RQ got that 6,000 NSN figure number from 2007. i thought she was looking at 2008 totals and forgot they included NSN and SN.
i truly didn’t comprehend the decline last year when you factor in SN. we know there were 3,900 adoptions to the US and that traditionally that makes up 67% of the total, putting the worldwide total at 6,000 for 2008 NSN AND SN.
most agree SN adoptions are more than 50% of the total. but, even if we go low with that number and say it’s 40%, that’s still 3,600 NSN adoptions in 2008 compared with 6,000 in 2007.
i KNEW the 3,600 but didn’t realize the 2007 number.
if they do the SAME number of NSN adoptions in 2009 and the SN percentage really is at 60% which is what the c2a2 is currently saying, that’s 2,400 NSN adoptions or a 60% decline from 2007 to 2009.
October 9th, 2009 at 9:58 pm
RQ, when you say “backlog,” do you mean all of the LID’s up to present day (including, say, Sept 09 LID’s), or the LID’s up to May 07?
October 10th, 2009 at 8:40 am
Noendinsight- Yes, it is scary for the nsn program. Virtually- it is winding down in front of oour eyes and it has been. I am 2 months out for our LID date and am thinking I have another year to go. I am expecting that they will finish May 06 by the end of December 2010 at the latest- hopefully. I really think that the worse it gets in time for NSN program- more people are signing on and switching over to SN program and the numbers are increasing in the SN program- lowering the ratio of NSN adoptions. I have no problem with this- as kids are finding families and that is the most important, however- I think all those in the NSN program have to be realistic and look at the declining numbers of NSN referrals and not just at the RQ polls. The numbers have been steadily declining for years now. I see no reason for there to be a “speed up” if China is saying that they have less and less available orphans with no special needs. The SN program may speed up and that would still be great- but anyone in the NSN program should look long and hard and consider their options. Even with a LID date 2 months out- my family is now considering a WC. Why? not because of the wait- but because our family dynamics have changed over the last 4 years and we can NOW work with certain sn’s that we could not have with the dynamics of our family years ago. So weird how long it has been… I had 3 little boys when i started- now I have three big boys!
October 10th, 2009 at 10:35 am
so I spoke with my agency re: numbers logged in March vs say April 2006. the numbers were about 120 for March and 1/2 that for April so with attrition does it stand to reason that that number is now about 32? Just wondering with an 4-25-06 LID.
October 10th, 2009 at 11:31 am
It is true that agencies with an aggressive SN program do seem to have a higher attrition rate.
The important thing though, is the overall percentage – isn’t it? Some agencies have higher attrition and others have lower attrition… and some countries seem to have higher attrition while others seem to have lower attrition.
But it’s the overall percentage that helps us try to see the overall picture.