When: NSN Referrals
The last 12 referral batches arrived at 37, 36, 18, 24, 39, 32, 47, 30, 32, 31, 52, and 51 day intervals.
The average is 36 days, and the median is 34 days. The shortest interval is 18 days and the longest is 52.
But, if we look at the last six months then the average is 44 and the median is 43.
We’re told the 52 day interval was because no one was in the office to sign referrals, and the 51 day interval was because of the change in directors. It occurs to me that the SN list was put out December 1st, and that the referrals were signed and mailed on the 1st as well. I realize the “they’ve used up their quota for the fiscal year and have to wait until December to issue any more” thing is just rumor, but with both programs being held back until December 1st, it does make one wonder.
Why is the reason these batches were held back important? Because we’re trying to figure out if we can expect the next batch to arrive in 30 days or in 50 days. If the reasons for the 47, 52, and 51 day batches are no longer an issue, then perhaps we can go back to shorter intervals. But, if those long batches are due to something else (another way to slow IA, or a slowing because of H1N1, or some other reason entirely) then it’s possible the longer intervals are here to stay. As usual, only time will tell.
Our window is now huge: Based on the last twelve months, referrals should arrive sometime between Monday, December 21 and Friday, January 29.
Based on the last six months the window isn’t as big, but I’m going with the last twelve months because I think we also have to consider Chinese New Year at this point in time. I think we need to remember that there is a possibility the CCAA is going to start looking at a time frame between now and then so they can get referrals out just before they leave for their holiday. Spring Festival is February 14, and I believe the official holiday is going to fall from February 13 to 19. If they are going to mail a batch on or near February 12 (not a sure thing, but a fairly good probability) then we have 73 days between December 1 and February 12. Divide that by two and the next mailing would be somewhere around Wednesday, January 6 (to arrive the 7th or 8th). If we divide it by three we get 24 days, which would put the next mailing somewhere around Christmas Day. So, are we going to get 24 day intervals, 36 day intervals, or one huge 73 day interval? I think it depends on the reason for the previous delays. Three approximate 24 day intervals are quite possible, but based on previous months we should probably hope for two approximate 36 day intervals.
And to be clear – those two 36 days could turn into (for example) a 30 day and a 43 day – they likely will not divide them equally.
Normally I give a “most likely” date, but I’m not sure we can do that this month. If they were holding off until December because of the whole fiscal-year-ceiling-thing then it’s possible we will see the next batch come at the end of December. But if we’re seeing these longer intervals as the new norm then we’re more likely looking at the end of January.
We know the CCAA employees prefer to get referrals out before their new year so they come back to clean desks, but with a new director in place we don’t know for sure that this is what will happen.
December 6th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
It’s just sad.
December 6th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
It is very sad, we have waited so long. Isn’t true though that March was the biggest month so with April having fewer LIDs, will they possibly extend the amount of days? For example, the next cut-off date could be Apil 7th and the following one April 14th?? Is this possible?
December 6th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
The projections post will be the next one – that one deals with possible cut-off dates.
December 6th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
In the eight years that I have been an observer & participant in adoptions from China…ANYTHING is possible! In 2004 with our first adoption, we never thought they would speed up as much as they did (baby in arms 8 months to the day from LID). Now we cannot believe they have slowed down as much as they have. Unfortunately, only time will tell… :(
Beth
LID 4/21/06
December 6th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
In other words all bets are off for the time being. :(
I will be 42 next month. I was hoping to have this child in college by the time I retired but that is going out the window with all of this.
RQ, any idea how many dossier are going to China these days compared to 2006/2007?
LID: 06/22/06
December 6th, 2009 at 4:50 pm
Our agency told us there will be much more longer times between referrals in the future, because there are fewer and fewer babies. Remember they didn’t send out the referrals before the October holiday so why would they do it (again) before CNY? Everything has changed the last few months and I’m glad we won’t have to deal with that anymore :-).
LID 3/29/06, waiting for the call!
December 6th, 2009 at 6:05 pm
We’ll take whatever day they send out NSN referrals next as long as our date is included! It has been a long, long road.
Daughter4us
WI – USA
LID – 4/3/2006
December 6th, 2009 at 6:15 pm
lightiv
I feel your pain. I will be 45 in January. I never thought this would happen and I hate even getting my hopes up even though we are so close. We built a new house over 2 years ago so she would have her own room. There it sits, all decorated and ready for her. I usually keep the door closed :(
I am trying to look at the bright side; my boys will be a great help with her now that they are older and we are financially in a better spot. I keep thinking there has got to be a reason for all this and when we meet her we’ll know.
December 6th, 2009 at 7:26 pm
StillwaitinginWI – what is your LID?
My husband and I are both 43 and our youngest boy is going to be 10. We, too, were hoping this all would have happened much sooner. My husband is not looking forward to diapers at this point….I keep telling him that diapers are temporary. But, our boys should be a tremendous help and they are really looking forward to having a little sister.
daughter4us
WI-USA
LID: 4/3/2006
December 6th, 2009 at 8:11 pm
ugggh! it seems like the april lids bring bad luck…remember we were in review forever-at the time we were the longest ever, said RQ…….and now knowing that we are NEXT, it figures that our referral gets delayed until right before CNY…..waaaa!
Holding my breath, and hoping for a sooner referral!
catherine
lid 4/3/06
December 6th, 2009 at 8:21 pm
…..and another thought that just popped in my head: if and when referrals are delayed…..our children had better not be waiting for us……..I hope if they must be delayed, that it is because there were not enough babies abandoned –and overall that is a good thing….
ok, bye for now…….
catherine
lid 4/3/06
December 6th, 2009 at 9:45 pm
daughter4us
Our LID is 4/11/06. Husbands should have a blog of their own. My husband says the same thing, basically. It has been so long since we had little ones. I believe it will all come back to us quickly. We were excited for so long, we just feel like the wind has been knocked out of our sails too many times.
We have a 10 year old and an 8 year old, who believes his sister is waiting for us and doesn’t get why we can’t go and bring her home. It is hard for me to listen to him tell all of his friends he has a sister in China, only because I just don’t know sometimes if this will really happen. So sad!
December 6th, 2009 at 10:50 pm
StillwaitinginWI —
Your thoughts are exactly what we’ve been feeling – wind out of sails, etc. Our bio boys will be 14 and 10 soon. It has been so long now that they sort of stopped asking when. It should not be long now. I can wait 2 more months if that is what it takes. I’ve thought about the possibility of this not really happening many, many times. It just has to happen now because we are so close!! Hang in there!!!
December 7th, 2009 at 4:42 am
nice analysis thks im 41 and started my first adpotion discussion when i was 34 – mmmmmmmmmmmm
December 7th, 2009 at 6:46 am
At 47 we got our referral and our baby son 19!! There are diapers and there are tantrums, but our house certainly would not be the same without them. And us…we feel ten years younger not older.
We were in the 03/14/06 what felt like a screaming holt, but for some wonderful reason it was all meant to be….( our baby girls smile each morning tells us this).
Hang on everyone who is part of this horrid wait, and don’t worry about age of yourselves or siblings. It does work out :)
December 7th, 2009 at 8:09 am
bornfromtheheart,
Thanks for your encouraging words. I think it is just nice to know that we are not alone. We question if we made the right decision to do this and put our family thru this all the time. I also question my age, yet knowing there are many middle aged new parents. I think the hardest part is when others question why we are still hanging on and “Don’t you feel like your getting too old to do this?” Part of me wants to answer yes, I do feel too old and part of me wants to punch them in the mouth for their ignorance. Wow, talk about a lot of mixed emotions.
I do think it will all be worth it in the end. Just wondering when that will be.
December 7th, 2009 at 10:48 pm
We always appreciate spending time with others who understand. Thank you for the comments and insights (also waiting in WI…also watching those birthdays go by…but pleased to be in the correct month finally! LID 4/14/06) Thanks for everything, RQ. I know everyone says it, but I truly do not know what we’d do without you!