WorldWide Numbers – Updated
I started out my spreadsheet this morning with this post. Remember, I had hard numbers that I used to come to those conclusions, and I felt like (and still feel like) those numbers are very close to actual CCAA numbers. Since I haven’t received any hard numbers since then, pulling those figures forward means depending on certain ratios from that post. It will probably be easiest to show you the spreadsheet and then explain it, so here goes:
The first three rows of the first three columns are copied directly from this post. The State Department numbers come from this page. Of the three years we know numbers on, the US average is 64% of total, so I used 64% for 2008 and 2009, and used that to populate the Total row for those two years.
Then I focused on the NSN vs SN percentages (bottom two rows). The first three columns of the bottom two rows reflect the data in the first three rows. Then I had to estimate those percentages for 2008 and 2009. I know hard numbers for most of the really big agencies, and a few countries, so the estimates are probably in the right ballpark. But without the CCAA providing hard numbers again, please realize that the final two columns of the final two rows are only estimates.
And, this is a biggie: The final two columns of the first two rows come from a formula that uses those estimated percentages.
I am not claiming to know exact numbers, but I do think that these numbers reflect something close to the actual figures. And, let’s face it, this is probably as close as we’re going to come to knowing total worldwide numbers.
And finally, many of you tell me that you can understand these things better if I give a visual, so here’s your visual.
The legend at the bottom tells you, but I’ll say it again. The blue line represents total number of NSN adoptions from China to the rest of the world for each year. The red line represents the SN adoptions, and the yellow line represents total adoptions (NSN plus SN).
I will do more with these numbers, but this is a good start.
December 22nd, 2009 at 10:49 am
okay, correct me if i’m wrong. but i get a 40% drop in NSN from 2008 to 2009. if there was another 40% drop in 2010 then that would men 1,125 total. I estimate there are about 900-950 familes in april and may. so with a 40% drop they should still finish april and may 06 in 2010???
of course the NSN numbers dropped almost 50% from 2007 to 2008…so that could certainly happen again. in which case they could still finish april and may in 2010….
% decline in NSN numbers:
2006 vs. 2005 -29%
2007 vs. 2006 -22%
2008 vs. 2007 -49%
2009 vs. 2008 -41%
December 22nd, 2009 at 10:51 am
AND if they did the same numbers in 2010 (which history tells us won’t happen) they they would finish August 2006? i don’t see them doing five months when it took them almost a year to do one….
December 22nd, 2009 at 11:26 am
to Noendinsight :
I am longing forward to undestanding how you’ve calculated the number of families LID April + May 2006 still in line for a NSN child…
RQ polls are highly interesting (v.accurate statistics + analysis) but do not reflect at all real figures concerning # of waiting families wordlwide. I may be wrong, but they remain statistics, don’t they? Every single PAP does not visit necessarily RQ.
I would think there are far more applicants than what you say.
December 22nd, 2009 at 11:31 am
RQ, how does this affect your projections. Do you agree with noendinsight on factoring in the decline and still getting through May? Can you tell I am a late May LID? Thanks for the information, I guess time will tell.
December 22nd, 2009 at 11:38 am
Remember anything is possible! Back when the numbers were so high so were the number of matches each month. Up to 6 weeks of dossier were matched back then. I’m not saying that will happen again anytime soon. But I am saying it is possible to see an change in a short time especially as the numbers are changing. Don’t lose hope!
December 22nd, 2009 at 11:43 am
French Marianne – based on past polls RQ calculates the percentage of people who vote in her polls. Overall it’s around a third. But about 60% of April families voted and 50% of May families. See RQ’s posts from the week before last “Another Look at Poll Numbers and Attrition Results” and “Comparing the last three polls.”
December 22nd, 2009 at 11:44 am
mom2chinagirls – honestly, at this point I am just hoping we’ve reached rock bottom and we don’t see any more declines!
December 22nd, 2009 at 12:03 pm
Noendinsight – I’m trying to do this one step at a time. I’ll take the next step and do those projections, but let’s try to absorb this much first, okay?
French Marianne – I pointed to the posts where I explain where these numbers come from. I’m using estimated worldwide numbers here, not poll numbers.
chinathistime – Please, let me take the time to do those calculations before asking me to give conclusions. One step at a time. Please?
mom2chinagirls – The CCAA seems to be telling most of the agencies not to expect any increases any time soon, so I’m not sure it’s a good idea to try to convince people to hope for a speed up. Right now I’d be thrilled if they just don’t slow down any more. But I’m not going to put projections out there based on things staying static. When I do my projections they will, unfortunately, be based on things slowing down even more. That’s not being pessimistic, that’s being realistic based on 1) past performance and 2) what the agencies (who talk to the CCAA) are saying to expect.
What I tried to do today was to lay the groundwork for making projections. So let’s discuss today’s math, decide if we can agree that these numbers are as close as we think we can get, and once we’ve done that, we’ll take the next step.
December 22nd, 2009 at 12:39 pm
RQ – one thing i think we need to consider is the US % of the total. The US does more SN adoptions than other countries (in large part because other countries aren’t allowed to participate) thefore the 64% number may be a lot higher.
December 22nd, 2009 at 12:41 pm
i want to clarify – i didn’t mean to imply ALL other countries were unable to adopt SN – but i understand that some are not?
December 22nd, 2009 at 12:57 pm
The 64% number is accurate within about one and a half percentage points. I feel very good about that particular number.
It’s the 60/40 that could be off by as much as 4 percentage points. As I said, I have exact numbers (SN, NSN, Total) from some of the largest US Agencies, and I have exact numbers (SN, NSN, Total) from a few countries. I am aware that there are several countries either without a SN program at all, or with a very very small SN program that is practically impossible for citizens of that country to participate in. The 60/40 is a best guess based on the limited hard numbers that I have. But it could easily be 56/44 or 64/36, I don’t claim to have guessed at it exactly right.
December 22nd, 2009 at 2:03 pm
Ok…so with all that figured…what would be your “prediction” for August 2006… Of course anything can change…so it really is hard to predict anything. Just wondering though. :)
Thanks,
Mary
December 22nd, 2009 at 2:17 pm
I think you are clouse for the 60/40 SN/NSN numbers.
US 2009
60% SN 1800.6
40% NSN 1200.4
I had alwase thought there were more SN adoptions in 2009 then NSN.
I can make sence of the persenage numbers for SN going up so sharpy over the years because of the sharp dorp in NSN’s referals so more people are looking at the SN as soming there family is open to, but the NSN persentage numbers from 2005 to 2009 dropping so sharply in a country of 1,338,612,968 people dusent make sence and is a little hard to take.
thanks for the Numbers RQ
Glen
U.S. NSN
7112.7
5128.68
3926.16
2033.72
1200.64
December 22nd, 2009 at 4:20 pm
The last two percentages for 2007 are incorrect. We know the CCAA didn’t do more than 100% :-)
-TM
December 22nd, 2009 at 5:33 pm
Thanks mzmurphy2002! You’re absolutely right.
December 22nd, 2009 at 6:37 pm
I wonder if the CCAA will need to somehow maintain a viable NSN program to continue the growing SN program ?
December 22nd, 2009 at 9:31 pm
But is the SN program really growing? Yes, it’s a higher percentage of the total than in the past, but as overall numbers drastically decline, so will SN. I don’t like the direction any of this is taking. Has China really solved the problem of child abandonment? Has domestic adoption really taken off that much?
December 23rd, 2009 at 12:13 am
a compilation of data published by the Australian Intercountry Adoption Network indicates there were over 14000 in 2005. Am not sure of the accuracy for all the countries they report from but they got Canada and the USA bang on so I assume the rest are correct.
December 23rd, 2009 at 12:20 am
Very interesting! Honestly, I don’t think the SN program is growing that much right now. 3 months ago the shared list had roughly 400 kids on it, I heard from an agency that it now has roughly 700 kids on it. Agencies, who were only getting a new agency specific list every 4-6 months have started seeing them every other month. IMO, I’m thinking economy is keeping families from starting another adoption, and the NSN switching to SN has probably slowed to a trickle now (those who would switch have done so already).
December 23rd, 2009 at 3:33 am
jmsmommy98, you’re right about the SN program not growing. As you can see in the table, there even was a small drop this year.
December 23rd, 2009 at 8:49 am
Very interesting! Thanks RQ for ALL you do for us! I wouldn’t get through the day without your posts! You have made this VERY LONG wait much more bearable.
Merry Christmas to you and your family!
Kristy
4-3-06
December 23rd, 2009 at 9:15 am
windthrow – I actually have the 2006 and 2007 numbers on CCAA letterhead showing those figures, so I can’t explain the difference. I couldn’t say that way back when, but the agency who provided those figures to me has gone out of business so I figure I can say it now. They asked for numbers and got an answer, and they shared the answer with me. I waited a while to put that post out, and then shared the post with them before I put it out to make sure they were okay with my using their information that way. At least two agencies received that information – one shared it with their clients (who shared it with me) and one shared it directly with me.
Maybe the Australian numbers are calendar year and the Chinese numbers are fiscal year? Or maybe the CCAA was doing it based on when referrals were issued and other countries do it based on when the adoption is final?
I do know that having those figures from the CCAA has proven to be very helpful in a number of ways. And I am very thankful for the agency who shared them with me. I wonder how many other agencies have similar information but don’t feel that they can share it.
December 23rd, 2009 at 9:56 am
RQ – it was AMAZING when you got those numbers. i always wondered where they were from! they have proven so helpful to me! thanks for working so hard for all of us.
December 23rd, 2009 at 2:56 pm
Thanks for providing the source of your info RQ. I guess it says something about how little credibility the CCAA has in my eyes, that I think a compilation of the yearly numbers from the receiving countries is way more credible that something that appears to come directly from them.