Longer Term Projections
I made some projections in this post a few weeks ago. At the time I requested that families not pay too much attention to them, and I said I would revisit that concept again once the FY2009 State Department numbers came out. So, here goes:
This first chart comes from the above referenced post, and it shows us an estimated actual number of families still waiting each month. These numbers are estimated worldwide numbers.
If we knew how many NSN referrals the CCAA was going to refer this year, then we might have a general idea of how long it will take to refer each month. It wouldn’t be exact, because the CCAA does more some months and less some months, but it could give us a rough idea. The problem, of course, is that no one knows what the CCAA will do this year. But, we can make some estimates based on past behavior, and based on the fact that several agencies say the CCAA has said things are not going to speed up anytime soon.
In order to get an idea of how many NSN referrals we may see this year, let’s look at our estimated past year worldwide NSN numbers (data comes from this post) and try to extrapolate from there.
As you can see, I looked at three possibilities for how things may look next year. Using those three possibilities, we get the following possible projections:
I did not go beyond March of 2011 because I’m assuming that our referrals-per-month estimates will change in 2011, so we can’t get too far into 2011 and expect to be accurate.
I want to emphasize that the data I’m using to come to these projections are all estimates. I’m not claiming to know these exact numbers. But I believe we have enough information to come to numbers that are fairly close. However, we really do not know what the CCAA is going to do in the future. I’m not making predictions here, I’m making projections based on past CCAA performance.
I hope to use this post later as a kind of roadmap. For instance, if April is finished in April then we can hope for May to be finished in July or August. But, if April 2010 arrives and we see that April 2006 isn’t going to be finished until June, then we can have a better idea of when May 2006 may be finished.
December 23rd, 2009 at 9:34 am
This matches closely what I had been thinking – January to March 2011 for me, but wishfully hoping for October or November 2010. I get these results either using the poll numbers or the numbers here.
LID 6/23/2006
December 23rd, 2009 at 10:02 am
Thank you for showing us the lowest numbers. Even if they cut NSN by half again, May can hope to be done within a year. That’s what we’ve been waiting to see.
Now lets see if they continue to send batches once a month, more or less.
December 23rd, 2009 at 10:10 am
RQ, are you planning to also run these predictions against an increase in the SN/NSN ratio?
December 23rd, 2009 at 10:38 am
I’m a little confused and perhaps you can help. Do the figures for those left after attrition include everyone in the US who is waiting or just those who visit this site? Just wondering how accurate those numbers are. Thanks for the analysis! The picture actually looks more positive than I expected – although I admit my expectations are low! :)
December 23rd, 2009 at 10:39 am
rq – i think in your second chart your estimates for 2010 are out of order. instead of going 78/51/59 they go 51/78/59.
how amazingly sad to realize they could easily do fewer than 1,000 NSN adoptions next year ;-(
December 23rd, 2009 at 11:41 am
Thanks RQ,
Unfortunately, my prediction is that they will drop the NSN numbers again this year and get through April/May. Then in 2011 they will drop them once more and refer June…..and then say they no longer have any NSN child in need of families.
I have to think that China has decided they no longer want to be apart of IA, but cannot saying this. Plus we have to think about the huge gap between males and females in China created by the one child rule all these years, now China may be trying to “fix” this by keeping all their healthy baby girls in orphanages to grow up.
Not to mention the Blue Sky program build new orphanages…why? maybe to house more children as to one day fix this gender gap they have created. Economically China can now build lots of new orphanages if they wish.
This is just my theory, with our LID at 11/06 we do not plan to received a referral via NSN. We are stuck with a large China only agency that is VERY unhelpful with the SN program, so we will have to start over with a good agency for SN or pull out completely : (
December 23rd, 2009 at 12:02 pm
RQ, it is amazing to me that no matter what your projection are they all seem to hold steady with accuracy/consistency. Despite crunching the numbers based on the State Department it does not change our expectation (hope) of a referral late 2010 first half of 2011. While I know it is not certain since we never know what is coming down the road it does make me feel good.
All of this speaks to your steady, conservative and rational look at the China situation and numbers over the life of this website which I believe started in 2006 when we started our adoption journey.
Keep up the great work and once again I will say that you are a blessing to all of us here at ChinaAdoptTalk.com.
LID: 06/22/06
December 23rd, 2009 at 12:36 pm
Noendinsight – they go 51-78-59, just like the column headings say. I did low then high then decided to do a middle. So, you’ve got train of thought spreadsheet instead of logical spreadsheet on that one. I just doublechecked the numbers to make sure, and the columns do reflect the heading labels.
babydreamer – I’m glad it helps. My goal is to show a bad case and a good case, so families can kind of get a window to put their expectations into. It’s not worst case and best case, as things could certainly be worse or better… but I remember how badly RK and I needed to be able to let our employers have an idea of when we might travel, and how badly we needed some idea of how to plan our lives. So, I try to do something to help. I can’t give any guarantees about that window, but this is the best I think anyone can do under the circumstances.
As for the SN/NSN ratio, it would be another way to do the math, but I don’t believe we have the data to do it reliably. Remember, I’m just guesstimating the last two years, and to guess what it might do next year? It’s coming at it from the wrong direction. I looked at the drop in NSN referrals year by year and I think that does what we need it to do, since the SN/NSN ratio is kind of built into those figures. If you do it based on the SN/NSN drop then you’re using the guestimates three times in the same formula and that just makes the margin of error that much worse.
mdwaiting – if you want the poll numbers there is a link in the top right hand column to take you to the raw poll numbers – those figures just represent those who visit the site. I’ve pointed to the posts that show the math that gave us the figures we’re looking at now: The figures in this post represent estimated worldwide actual numbers. They do not represent exact figures, that’s impossible with what we have to work with. The hope is that we’re in the right ballpark. Since I don’t know the exact breakdown of SN to NSN for last year, this is as close as we’re likely to get. Unless an agency has that information from the CCAA and wants to share.
EthioChinaadopt – honestly, at this point I think the CCAA thinks attrition will be enough that they can refer a child to everyone who sticks it out. I think they are counting on attrition in order to be able to refer everyone who is currently in line, though. I think that those who are angry at the CCAA for accepting so many applications have every right to be angry about it, too. I know there are those who try to say they were never guaranteed anything and thus have no right to be angry… but I don’t see it that way. But, the point is: I think that those who stick it out will likely get a referral. But it could be many, many years.
December 23rd, 2009 at 12:49 pm
i would imagine for the program to stay open we would have to hit bottom at some point. if that is 1,876 NSN or 200 NSN per year remains to be seen. next year’s numbers will drop by at least 25% if history tells us anything…but if there is a bottom, maybe we’re there. i doubt it, but maybe!
December 23rd, 2009 at 12:57 pm
My next big “numbers” project is to try to figure out what the current backlog is likely to be. RK tells me that we have ‘plans’ for tonight after the kids are in bed, so it doesn’t sound like I’m going to be on the computer tonight, and my guess is that I won’t be able to do it until Sunday when all of the out of town family that will begin arriving tomorrow morning leaves to go home. For big projects I generally do it the night before and then go through the whole thing again the next morning with a fresh head to make sure I didn’t make a logic or math error somewhere. Also, the next morning I seem to be better at explaining it than I am right after I’ve done it.
Anyway, if we can figure out a rough idea of what the backlog is at the current time then we can possibly get an idea of how many years the wait is likely to be. Once we hit the folks who got in under the new rules then the wait will either stabilize, or will begin to shorten. But first we have to get through the huge LID months that accumulated just before the new rules took effect.
December 23rd, 2009 at 1:41 pm
Hope this is ok to post…….for all those waiting to travel..or when you get matched. I just used Ann and redthread to send my baby a gift package. She sent me several updated pictures!!! It’s such an awesome gift to see more pictures. Just wanted to share for all those matched and still waiting.
December 23rd, 2009 at 2:28 pm
still drinking the koolaid, and still expecting a referral in one year’s time for 9/19/06.
December 23rd, 2009 at 2:51 pm
Thanks for the encouragement RQ! I have lost a lot of hope so it is good to hear you say we actually may some day see a referral. To stay sane I still would need to tell myself with an LID 11/06 we would not have a referral for 4 to 6 years! I agree with Neondinsight, it all depends on what they decide the bottom will be…….could it go to 200 NSN per year world wide? Anything is possible, the bottom could be 0! Only time will tell.
December 23rd, 2009 at 3:05 pm
RQ thanks for your charts I have many friends still waiting and your site helps them and helped me over the years. Hope your plans work out for you.LOL
Glen