Comments on: When: NSN Referrals

By: JustWait

JustWait — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 12:27:20 +0000

Given the craziness of the last six months, I don’t think we can make any accurate predictions. I still appreciate RQ’s number crunching because it helps us see patterns or randomness. When a new pattern emerges, the number crunching will show that. But for now, all I see is randomness, and I don’t think we have any reliable pattern from which to make predictions.

And while I appreciate the rumors (the name of the site serves as fair warning about that), I don’t think there’s any way for those of us on the outside to really understand what’s going on withing the CCAA. We get second-hand information hear, fourth-hand information there. And it all has been translated to and from at least two languages. Sometimes, the telephone is played through multiple languages (CCAA speaks in Chinese to someone from Spain, who speaks in Spanish to someone in the US, who then gives a third-hand, twice-translated version.

The bottom line is that:
1) we don’t really know what’s going on in China or why;
2) there’s no good reason to expect the NSN process to speed up;
3) there’s every reason to expect it to slow down further; and
4) there’s no accurate way to predict when the next batch of referrals will be released.

By: StillwaitinginWI

StillwaitinginWI — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 02:09:49 +0000

Noendinsight,
Yeah, I was thinking about what you were, just hoped I was wrong. We are 4/11 so I am wondering if they would actually make us wait 8 more months, and go one day at a time. How unfair is that?? I know we are close but really don’t know that I can do it if I have to wait that long.

Congratulations triathlonner, awesome news for you!!

By: triathlonner

triathlonner — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 01:37:06 +0000

We have a SN referral, and just today found out our gotcha and consulate dates – 1/17 for gotcha, and 1/26 for consulate. We were originally expecting to travel 1/31, so leaving 1/13 caught us quite by surprise. Our agency said they’re trying to get as many of their ready families in and out of the country before the end of January as possible. I’m not sure whether it’s because of CNY…?

By: Noendinsight

Noendinsight — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 22:56:48 +0000

should have included 4/11…that’s a relatively big day too.

By: Noendinsight

Noendinsight — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 22:51:15 +0000

StillwaitinginWI – your guess is as good as anyone else’s is! who knows! if the did one day it would be the about the same size batch as this week’s three day batch. so it could be one day….and send people further over the edge.

the biggest days in april 06 are 4/3 (done), 4/4, 4/5 and 4/12. so if they did 4/4 AND 4/5, we’d have three of the four largest days in the month done. so if the next batch was two days it might be cause to celebrate. how sad is that???!

By: StillwaitinginWI

StillwaitinginWI — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 21:23:07 +0000

Does anyone know what the next cut-off date will be? Can anyone guess? I am wondering if China will be going 3 days at a time, which would be April 6, 2006 for Jan. Just thinking out loud.
Congratulations to all the lucky ones who just recieved their referrals. You must be overwhelmed with happiness.

By: Noendinsight

Noendinsight — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 19:47:13 +0000

daddyjac – thanks for looking at this. i think we can look 2009 and 2008 to give us a clue as to what this year will hold, but i doubt that anything in the years prior to that will tell us anything since they are doing a fraction of the referrals they used to do.

By: RumorQueen

RumorQueen — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 19:44:57 +0000

I’m pretty sure we’ve talked about the CCAA’s holiday schedule each year, but I’m not up to going back and searching to find it. I’ve got my memory telling me that most years the CCAA mails referrals within three or four days of their last day in the office. Some years it’s a week or so before they leave, but most years it’s within a few days of their final workday. I remember it being really off one year, and I remember the CCAA had a reason for it, but can’t remember the reason.

By: daddyjac

daddyjac — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 19:31:13 +0000

RQ – I assumed that time wouldn’t start before CNY eve since the festivities occur between then and the lantern festival. But now that I think about it, I recall hearing that some travel time is often built in. Do you know how the referral dates compare to CCAA’s holidays? If so, can you post it so we can gauge how much of a tradition there is? I tend to put too much hope on plausible theories and so I might be inclined to think its less plausible in order to mitigate the possibility of dashed hopes.

Also, I noticed that my referral date for 2005 is wrong — chinaadoptionforecast.com doesn’t go back that far.

By: RumorQueen

RumorQueen — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 19:04:30 +0000

daddyjack – you shouldn’t compare it to CNY, you should compare it to the last day CCAA was scheduled to work. They are generally off for 9 or 10 days at a time, and CNY falls somewhere in that 9 or 10 days.