Comments on: Projections

By: lightiv

lightiv — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 22:05:31 +0000

Ok, maybe its the new medication. :) I reversed the columns: eg. the first column is actually the calendar months for 2010 and the columns to the right are the projected “referrals through” dates. RIGHT???

Now sure why I woke up today and did not remember this. It is a shame considering I been here for the last 3 years.

By: RumorQueen

RumorQueen — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 21:55:11 +0000

lightiv, the dates are in the right places. Wouldn’t make sense for the good case to be worse than the horrid case.

I think everyone knows what year is being projected, don’t they? If I add years then it’s going to throw the formatting completely off.

By: Noendinsight

Noendinsight — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 21:11:34 +0000

how completely awesome would winter ’08 horrid be?! never thought i’d say THAT.

By: lightiv

lightiv — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 20:07:41 +0000

RQ, I do not know what is wrong with me today but it seems that your projection table has the numbers in reverse order. It seems that your “2006 Good Case” should be Apr 4th instead of May 15.

Also would you consider adding the two digit year for you projections dates?

Thanks.

By: Noendinsight

Noendinsight — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 18:41:04 +0000

march took 11 months, not a year. can you tell i’m clinging to ANYTHING i can!? happy new year everyone.

By: ladeeesquire

ladeeesquire — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 18:05:40 +0000

OK, since they did quite a few expedites and 4/4 is a big day, it is possible that they had enough dossiers to get through part of 4/4 but not all so they held back the 4/4 referrals. There’s been some evidence that they’ve done that before and then often the following month will be somewhat better. So maybe there’s just a bit of hope that next month won’t be as bad as this one???

As always, I guess everyone will just have to wait until next month’s referrals to get more of a handle on that but its possible.

Hugs to all who wait. I’m keeping my fingers crossed for you that this month is not the new normal.

susan
http://www.crowellgang.blogspot.com

By: StillwaitinginWI

StillwaitinginWI — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 18:03:34 +0000

So, if China is so backlogged, and has more adopting parents than children available to adopt, WHY are they still excepting applications from people around the globe?

By: RumorQueen

RumorQueen — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 17:52:45 +0000

Yes, the last row should be May/June. Thanks for pointing it out. I can’t change it from this computer, but I’ll change it when I get a chance.

By: daddyjac

daddyjac — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 17:44:57 +0000

Excellent analysis RQ, thank you! I was hoping that this was an anomaly and not the new standard, and your explanation that the number of babies might have made it through most but not all of 4/4/06 is encouraging.

One question: Should the last row of the projection table be May/June instead of June/July? I was so hoping to make it to that box (5/16/06) this month, but I’ll settle for projecting that you would project 5/16/06 in the next row, if there were another row.

firstkid: Unlike us, CCAA knows how many dossiers are registered, the rate at which children come to orphanages particpating in IA, and the rate at which children are adopted within the country. They also know how many children they are planning to release for IA, so it would be pretty easy to say how long it would take to get through March or any other month, at least on the horizon of one year.

Given the poll numbers in April in general, and the small numbers from, for example, 4/27 – 5/9, it’s hard to believe that there won’t be some bigger batches in terms of days referred.

By: YR

YR — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 17:32:30 +0000

RQ, I find it very helpful when you raise a variety of potential scenarios and allow us to draw our own conclusions.
Thanks very much for this projections post.