When: NSN Referrals
The last 12 referral batches arrived at 18, 24, 39, 32, 47, 30, 32, 31, 52, 51, 27, and 34 day intervals.
The average is 35 days, and the median is 32 days. The shortest interval is 18 days and the longest is 52.
If we were to look purely at numbers then the soonest we’d expect to see referrals would be Friday, February 19; the latest would be Thursday, March 25; and the most likely date would be Monday, March 8. But this month we also need to take CNY into consideration.
It is my understanding that government workers are off from February 13-19, but then most must work the weekend days of either February 20 and 21 or 27 and 28. That effectively just gives them three business days they aren’t working, since they have to make two of their days up. Could they send referrals out on the 19th to arrive on the 22nd? Yes, it’s in the realm of the possible, since that would actually be a slightly longer interval than the shortest interval. Will they? I have no idea. It could be that since they only spend about a week (or less) on the actual matching process now that the way CNY falls won’t affect their process. I honestly have no idea.
Tomorrow we’ll look at the projections to see what the next cut off is likely to be if the CCAA is doing referrals based on how many referrals they can do in a month and not just putting out two to four days every month. The next few months will give us a good idea about that, since there are so few people logged in (comparatively) for most of the rest of April. If they are going to keep referring about the same number of babies then we should jump through a good number of days in the next three or four months. If they are just going to refer two to four days a month no matter what then, well, that will be terribly disappointing. To put it mildly.
February 3rd, 2010 at 9:02 am
As one who doesn’t post too often, I strongly agree RQ. IF they only do a couple of days instead of X# of babies, then I along with I’m sure many others will probably,(& I mean this literally), bang my head against the nearest wall. Every month I have to get the puching bag out and take out my frustration on that poor bag. The way I feel about this whole process is just ming boggling. As a 06/05/06 LID my wife and I , even though we have come close to throwing in the towel, still manage to hang in there. If they come out with a 2 or 3 day batch next month, we all will know that the C*A* is simply playing games and are not really trying as they say to put the welfare of the children out front as a priority. How disappointing it will be IF we see that happen.
Waiting Patiently in FL.
LID 06/05/06
February 3rd, 2010 at 9:34 am
I, for one, can no longer hold my breath for a NSN or SN adoption. While I am more than happy for the very few people that have received a NSN and SN referral in the past few days, there is no way to convince me that the 2009/10 China adoption program is a dependable, fair, well oil system.
I totally agree with RQ that if the next few batches are small then we have all turned a corner that is very dark and dismal.
February 3rd, 2010 at 10:48 am
I hope, hope, hope the next batch will be based on numbers of babies and not just a two day batch. I could be next! But I’m really trying hard to not let my heart go there…I keep telling my mind two more months and anything earlier will be a pleasant surprise!
LID 4/10/06 I wanna be NEXT!
February 3rd, 2010 at 11:25 am
Does anyone have any ideas of how we can all come together & try to help this insane situation? It sounds crazy, but I am so tired of feeling useless. Perhaps we can write a letter to the ccaa, or is that unheard of?
LID 10/13/06
February 3rd, 2010 at 12:09 pm
I could be wrong, But i thought I remembered that the batch after CNY- is usually a smaller than usual batch. if this is the case, we may not be able to use this batch to infer anything about the direction they will go in the future. I am going to allow one more month to slip by and bank on the next, next batcxh to be a larger, more substantial group- atleast I hope and pray.
February 3rd, 2010 at 12:56 pm
Does anyone know how long after you get your referral before you travel to China? I am seeing a bunch of different time frames and I thought it was approx. 6 weeks.
February 3rd, 2010 at 1:17 pm
4everwait. Yes, that is unheard of. What do you think the reaction would be if a group of foreigners sent a letter to the United States State Department complaining about a program?
I assume since you are adopting from China you have learned a little about her culture. China is a very old country with lots of traditions, to criticize a Dept. of the Government would be an insult. As far as China is concern you should feel privileged to even be allowed to adopt a Chinese baby and you should wait your turn with patience. Patience is a key to the Chinese Culture, everything in its time. After all Patience is a Virtue. We may not like the WAIT, but there is really nothing we can do about it as far as trying to get CCAA to change things.
February 3rd, 2010 at 1:24 pm
StillwaitinginWI – we received our referral on 12/28 and we just got our TA and consulate appointment confirmed. We will be traveling March 4 – 19th. Which seems longer than usual but our agency told us it was due to the CNY holiday.
I can wait!
February 3rd, 2010 at 1:25 pm
I meant I can’t wait. Can you tell I’m typing fast? That’s so I can go call the travel agent!
February 3rd, 2010 at 3:47 pm
theswanigans
Congratulations to you both. It seems about 9 weeks then, over 2 months. When did I miss that update. Honestly, when we first began they told us 6 months until we get our referral and you will travel 4-6 weeks later. This is very frustrating.
4everwait
I hear you. I worry about rocking the boat though. My question is why in the world are any international agencies still accepting people into the china adoption program. ?? That is so wrong and unfair and dishonest. I can’t believe what we have had to go through, what about the poor people with LIDs in 2008, 2009 etc…
February 3rd, 2010 at 4:01 pm
The box!! The box hasn’t changed. RQ can you update the box.
February 3rd, 2010 at 4:14 pm
4everwait,
There was a conversation back in November that addressed the issue of letter writing.
Here’s the link to the post and the following discussion.
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2009/11/06/quiet-2/
February 3rd, 2010 at 4:32 pm
Has anyone heard anything about the new SN list and when it will come out? Last year it came out BEFORE Chinese New Year…Rumors?
February 3rd, 2010 at 5:10 pm
Why do people think that the next batch (or the batches next month) may be different? I am assuming that they will all be small. I waited all year for the matches in March of 06 to be completed. I had heard rumors that things would pick up after that. Now that the batches are still small and the number of people logged in is very small, I see no reason to think that things MIGHT pick up.
Any reason to hope? I’ll keep an open mind.
February 3rd, 2010 at 5:24 pm
WaitingInMT
By no means was it ever implied or was I trying to start trouble. I was simply trying to reach out to our community to see if there is anything possible we can do. Instead , I receive a note from you lecturing me about patience and accusing me of not knowing anything about Chinese culture. That was not very nice. I, like thousands of others out there am just heartbroken and am trying anything and everything possible to be a parent for the first time.
With each passing month, with more and more bad news, it gets increasingly difficult.
theswanigans
I agree with you that the agencies should not be taking new perspective parents. However, at least anyone who might be considering China now, can look at how long all of us are waiting and make an educated decision. Unfortunately, when we chose this program it was based on it’s consistency, reliabity, and something we could put an approximate timeframe on based on recent history at that time.
Thank you so much for your kind words.
hugs.
February 3rd, 2010 at 5:44 pm
4everwait-
I feel your pain, big hug!!! I would love if we could do something as a collaborative group to change things, but unfortunately, we are at the mercy of this program-
I don’t understand why agencies still take applications- maybe money, maybe the hope that things will change? I don’t know- as a 3/08 LID- our wait will be a long one.
Again, big hug-
Congratulations to those who received referrals, and those traveling soon- pray for the rest of us!
February 3rd, 2010 at 6:16 pm
If they don’t get through at least the 10th, if not the 11th next month (or when the next referrals arrive) it will be beyond disappointing.
February 3rd, 2010 at 6:18 pm
4everwait,
I have your same LID and waiting for my first child as well. Hang in there!……. I know exactly how you feel. Last Monday I found this yahoo group for “first time parents waiting ” PM me if you need info. I don’t think I can post the link here……. A big hug!.
February 3rd, 2010 at 6:21 pm
chope ,
Thank you! I feel very computer / blog illiterate. How do I PM?
I feel so silly!!!! very funny.
February 3rd, 2010 at 7:12 pm
4everwait,
I looked for you in the system so I can email you or PM you, but I can only find “4everwaiting” member. I thought that was you but the LID on this member signature is different than yours so I guess that is not you……. :) I cannot find you in the member list. I’ll continue looking
February 3rd, 2010 at 8:14 pm
4everwait – I recently blogged about this here: http://chinaadopttalk.com/2009/11/06/quiet-2/
Start at about the 4th paragraph
StillwaitinginWI – depends on whether you are Hague or not. If not, then 6 weeks is a good estimate when there is no upcoming holiday, give or take a few weeks. If you are Hague then the last I heard it was taking about a month longer to get through all of the extra red tape. If that has sped up or slowed down I’m sure someone will correct me.
mom2girls – sorry! I’ve got a list of things I do after referrals (babies post, update the histories page, a when post, a projections post, update the box)… I forgot one of the things. Thanks for reminding me!
waitingforlaurali – no one is implying the sizes of the batches will get bigger. We’re just saying that if the size of the batches stays the same we should get through a lot more days than we have been getting through. The CCAA can always reduce the sizes of the batches to keep the days referred about the same – the’ve done it before when we went from a huge month to a small month, we’re just hoping they don’t do that again this time.
February 3rd, 2010 at 8:25 pm
chope
my username for rumor queen is 4everwait.
thank you.
February 3rd, 2010 at 9:25 pm
RQ you are correct about the CNY but we have found that they actually begin “celebrating” it earlier. We received our TA at the end of last month and we also live in China. The person handling our case said he thought we could travel before CNY to pick up our son, come home for the CNY and then go on to Guangzhou after CNY. Turns out the orphange and officials were not in the mood to do anything until after the CNY (direct quote). Very disheartening to know we are a couple hours away from him and have to wait at least 3 more weeks!
February 3rd, 2010 at 10:49 pm
RQ
Thanks for clearing that up for me, very helpful. We did not file the I-800A, grandfathered in with the I-600. That makes me feel better, at least for the moment.
Thanks again
February 4th, 2010 at 11:52 am
4everwait,
I cannot find you in the member list so I don’t want to leave you behind so…….. follow the following steps.
1. Go to Forum (link at the right side of RQ web site)
2. Go to General Discussions
3. Look for the post “How are people with no children coping with the ever increase wait.
You will find the information that you need….
Let me know if you still have problems………
February 11th, 2010 at 2:14 pm
praying for referrals through the 11th..we are LID 4-12-06 and are ready to be NEXT!!!!