Projections
The first chart (below) shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember that each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison.
As you can see, this was a rather large batch when compared to recent batches. Especially when you realize that some of the recent batches were spread out so far, so that two batches came in the amount of time we would have expected to receive three batches.
Some people have been saying it was time for me to create another column. I really hope we don’t have to do that, and as of now I don’t see the need.
Next we’ll take a look at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections.
Here are my projections:
The big question right now is whether the CCAA is doing this based on number of dossiers, or based on number of calendar days referred at a time. I believe that the next referral batch will begin to give us an idea about that.
You can always find your way back to the Projections and When posts by clicking on the Analysis category in the lower right hand column.
I’ll end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.
February 4th, 2010 at 11:30 am
they really have averaged spring 2008 small for the last 19 months. even though there are months that fall below it, the months that fall after it make up for it. why all of a sudden does this column look good to me? ;-)
seriously DROOLING over winter 2008 horrid. never mind 2006 good case!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
as always, THANKS RQ!!!
February 4th, 2010 at 11:41 am
RQ – i think your last two columns might be wrong. you have referrals listed as 12/24 and it was 12/29 and then 12/24 again instead of feb 1st.
also, i think your totals from the last batch of referrals might be wrong. those numbers seem a little high?
February 4th, 2010 at 11:44 am
Minor correction RQ… the “date of referral” on the first chart lists 12/24/09 twice instead of 2/2/10 for this referral.
I’m so excited to see September actually make the projection chart. I know “small 07″ is not a reality but it is fun to see we’ve made it this far!
As always, thank you for all your hard work.
February 4th, 2010 at 11:45 am
Thanks for these projections RQ, I love actually seeing our LID on the chart. I have a question about the number of LID’s covered for this batch. My printout of the 5/1 poll has 59 for 2-4 & 2-5, am I missing something? 86 LID’s covered makes this batch look even better.
I’m with noendinsight, I am starting to really like the look of the Spring 08 small. How sad is that!
February 4th, 2010 at 11:51 am
RQ, I really hope your projections are right, but don’t you think they are too optimistic? According to the Spanish polls, they are very, very optimistic, if the CCAA goes on doing what they have been doing.
February 4th, 2010 at 12:06 pm
I guess I am confused by the 80 count as well. Based on the most recent poll, the total for the 4th and 5th is 54, I think.
February 4th, 2010 at 12:06 pm
Mmmh, I love maths! Hate to seem playing bird of ill omen, but even the “Spr 2008 small” option seems far to optimistic to me. Just a feeling…
Of course, strongly hoping I am wrong. Only time will tell.
February 4th, 2010 at 12:16 pm
Yup. There’s an error. The LIDs for the 4/4 and 4/5 on the last three polls were 51, 59, and 54 respectively. Which is actually (and unfortunately) smaller than most of the batches over the last 12 months. Based on recent performance, if the next batch is like this one, they’ll get through 4/11. If it’s like the late December group, they’ll get to 4/10. And if it’s like prior batches, they should get to 4/12. And, of course there is the seemingly growing likelihood that the next batch will look nothing like anything they’ve done in the past [ :) or :( ]
February 4th, 2010 at 12:22 pm
I know it’s not going to happen. Repeat, I know it’s not going to happen. Just one more time in case you missed it, I know it’s not going to happen.
It still feels GREAT to finally see my LID, WAY WAY out there on the Rq projections chart.
Thanks Rq. You made my day!
February 4th, 2010 at 12:22 pm
P.S. The error appears to be that RQ added the 4/1 to 4/3 referrals to the 4/4 to 4/5 line.
February 4th, 2010 at 12:56 pm
Olaya – just curious, but exactly are the spanish polls saying? and where can we see them?
Thanks! :)
February 4th, 2010 at 1:34 pm
My Grandmother passed away. She was so excited for us when we decided to adopt after yrs. of infertility. She wanted to see me become a mom. This was in 2006. Here we are 4 yrs. later and no baby. With a 1-2007 LID, I will probably lose all my grandparents before this would ever become a reality. I feel really bad. Any words of comfort would be appreciated.
February 4th, 2010 at 1:44 pm
I don’t know if I can write a website here. Can I, RQ?
February 4th, 2010 at 1:44 pm
Also the last poll closed date should be 11/20/09 not 5/1/09…Don’t you just hate it when your spreadsheet doesn’t cooperate?
February 4th, 2010 at 3:19 pm
What scares the heck out of me is that after almost 4 years even the worst of worst case scenarios has us receiving an allocation before May/June – I’m not ready!!!! With all my pessemistic predictions, I didn’t think it would come round as quickly as it looks like it may, or am I setting myself up for more pain and grief?
Thanks RQ – you’ve scared the s**t out of me with these predictions, and even if they are out a month or 2, I think I am getting a little excited…….
EDC
LID 19th April 06
February 4th, 2010 at 3:26 pm
wait4ever, I don’t know if I have encouragement, but I have understanding. I lost my grandfather in the months before we finally brought home our ds. My grandfather was very excited to have a greatgrandchild to play with and was one of our biggest supporters. We had some bittersweet tears when we intoduced ds to the family and my grandfather was not there. My thoughts are with you now as you go through this sorrow! There is sometimes more grief associated with this long wait than can be anticipated.
February 4th, 2010 at 3:57 pm
wait4ever – i’m so sorry. i wish there were words that could help…
February 4th, 2010 at 4:07 pm
It feels good to see our LID coming up at the Spring 2008 small! We really like to have our referral this year!
Our LID is May 15
February 4th, 2010 at 4:08 pm
wait4ever, i know exactly how you feel. My father passed away before he met DD # 1. On his deathbed, stricken with cancer, he asked me when I would be traveling to China to get his grand daugther. When I told him the approximate referal date (I had no idea at that time but told him sometime in summer 2006), he sighed and said that most probably he wont make it to see his grand daughter. He passed away on 3/11/2006. Our Gotcha / Family Day was 1/4/2007. But I know that he is up there looking down at us when we arrived in China to receive DD# 1. We are LID 1/2008 for DD #2. Hang in there.
February 4th, 2010 at 4:19 pm
Dear wait4ever I am very sorry for your loss. I guess you need to look at it that you still have 3 grandparents that are alive and the one that has just passed away will be able to look down and see you become a mom.
February 4th, 2010 at 4:32 pm
Noendinsight- I’m with you. IF we are fortunate enough to see the (horrid- winter08) side of the predictions, We too will finally see our refferal by summers end. EVEN if they land between winter08 & spring 08 we will still get our refferal by Sept. ???. My wife and I have ALMOST thrown in the towel a couple of times in the last 6 months but seeing as our immigration paperwork doesn’t expire until 11/10, we decided to wait it out & see what happens until then. IF we can get to China and back before our paperwork expires, we would only need to renew our fingerprints and THAT would be the best feeling we’ve had in several years. We will really be able to see how it is going to go with the next batch. Good Luck to everyone.
February 4th, 2010 at 6:06 pm
Thank you everyone who replied. I have 2 grandfathers. Yes! I am lucky to have them. My other grandmother passed away in 2005(during treatments). Your kind words help.
February 4th, 2010 at 6:07 pm
Wait4ever, I’m so sorry. I lost both of my grandfathers in the last 2 years, and I know how hard it is (March 07 here). (((((((hugs)))))))
February 4th, 2010 at 9:22 pm
Wait4ever, so sorry for your loss. Maybe you could make a memory book for your future child with some pictures of your grandmother and stories of the times you shared together? She can live on through your memory.
February 4th, 2010 at 10:08 pm
I think I am reading the chart wrong. Why is this month better than a small batch when the number of logged in families 54 is less than other months such as December 12 batch 65 days. Thanks in advanced to whom ever clarifies this for me. I was never good at charts LOL.
February 4th, 2010 at 10:14 pm
Wait4ever
I have a pit in my stomach for you. I worry about things like that happening all the time. I can’t imagine how you feel. I am really sorry for your loss. The memory book is a great idea, it may help you too. I just can’t believe what we have all had to endure. If we had only known. ?? Maybe it is better we didn’t. I know for sure I wouldn’t be here if I knew all of this would happen.
Hang in there.
February 5th, 2010 at 5:04 am
MadisonChayse66, according to the Spanish polls, and provided that the CCAA continue doing what they are doing, the projections for the next 5 months would be more or less the following:
Feb/Mar: 10 Apr
Mar/Apr: 14 Apr
Apr/May: 18 Apr
May/Jun: 21 Apr
Jun/Jul: 26 Apr
I deeply hope that my projections are wrong and those of RQ, right.
February 5th, 2010 at 7:02 am
Wait4ever: My father died while we were waiting, so I can truly appreciate your sadness. We have been home with our daughter for 3 years now. My father would have adored her. I have always showed her pictures of him and I tell her about him. She knows he’s dead, but she thinks she remembers him. Now she tells me that, like in The Lion King, she looks at the stars and knows he is watching over her. It’s not the same as having my father here, but it’s nice.
February 5th, 2010 at 8:47 am
We all know what GIGO means, right? Sorry about that. I fixed the first chart last night, didn’t have much time to comment about it. I’ve doublechecked the projections formula to make sure I gave it all of the right figures. No changes to the projections spreadsheet, just the history spreadsheet.
February 5th, 2010 at 8:49 am
Wait4ever – I don’t have any words that will make you feel better, but I wish I did. Take care of yourself as best you can, do what you need to do to try to work through your grief.
February 5th, 2010 at 10:05 am
rq’s projections are if the c2a2 continues to do what they have been doin, whereas spanish rq has factored in a decline vs. last year. for example, based on rq’s polls, last year’s monthly avg for the nov 08 poll was 53 (if you take into account the two skipped months) and 63 if you just look at the months that were referred. spanish rq’s five month pj’s average 37. so that 37 is 30-41% lower than last year’s average (30% if you factor in two skipped months; 41% if you don’t).
last year’s NSN numbers decline 41% vs. 2008, so i’m wondering if spanish rq is factoring in the same decline for 2010?
i don’t know if spanish rq has polls or if she ever uses rq’s data – but rq’s data is a ridiculously large sample. i mean we’re talking about at least a third of all people waiting voting – in april and may it’s probably close to 50%. just think of how often elections are called when only 10…12…15% of polls are done reporting.
February 5th, 2010 at 7:47 pm
OK Im just not excited. With these projections, even though I realize they are realistic, it looks like once again we will have one more year with only two months LIDs. Will the increasing EVER end??
February 5th, 2010 at 7:51 pm
Maybe 3 months LIDs if we’re lucky.