Comments on: Projections

By: KarenInCa

KarenInCa — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 23:51:15 +0000

Maybe 3 months LIDs if we’re lucky.

By: KarenInCa

KarenInCa — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 23:47:51 +0000

OK Im just not excited. With these projections, even though I realize they are realistic, it looks like once again we will have one more year with only two months LIDs. Will the increasing EVER end??

By: Noendinsight

Noendinsight — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 14:05:19 +0000

rq’s projections are if the c2a2 continues to do what they have been doin, whereas spanish rq has factored in a decline vs. last year. for example, based on rq’s polls, last year’s monthly avg for the nov 08 poll was 53 (if you take into account the two skipped months) and 63 if you just look at the months that were referred. spanish rq’s five month pj’s average 37. so that 37 is 30-41% lower than last year’s average (30% if you factor in two skipped months; 41% if you don’t).

last year’s NSN numbers decline 41% vs. 2008, so i’m wondering if spanish rq is factoring in the same decline for 2010?

i don’t know if spanish rq has polls or if she ever uses rq’s data – but rq’s data is a ridiculously large sample. i mean we’re talking about at least a third of all people waiting voting – in april and may it’s probably close to 50%. just think of how often elections are called when only 10…12…15% of polls are done reporting.

By: RumorQueen

RumorQueen — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 12:49:59 +0000

Wait4ever – I don’t have any words that will make you feel better, but I wish I did. Take care of yourself as best you can, do what you need to do to try to work through your grief.

By: RumorQueen

RumorQueen — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 12:47:24 +0000

We all know what GIGO means, right? Sorry about that. I fixed the first chart last night, didn’t have much time to comment about it. I’ve doublechecked the projections formula to make sure I gave it all of the right figures. No changes to the projections spreadsheet, just the history spreadsheet.

By: gfantasia

gfantasia — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 11:02:32 +0000

Wait4ever: My father died while we were waiting, so I can truly appreciate your sadness. We have been home with our daughter for 3 years now. My father would have adored her. I have always showed her pictures of him and I tell her about him. She knows he’s dead, but she thinks she remembers him. Now she tells me that, like in The Lion King, she looks at the stars and knows he is watching over her. It’s not the same as having my father here, but it’s nice.

By: Olaya

Olaya — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 09:04:51 +0000

MadisonChayse66, according to the Spanish polls, and provided that the CCAA continue doing what they are doing, the projections for the next 5 months would be more or less the following:
Feb/Mar: 10 Apr
Mar/Apr: 14 Apr
Apr/May: 18 Apr
May/Jun: 21 Apr
Jun/Jul: 26 Apr
I deeply hope that my projections are wrong and those of RQ, right.

By: StillwaitinginWI

StillwaitinginWI — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 02:14:00 +0000

Wait4ever
I have a pit in my stomach for you. I worry about things like that happening all the time. I can’t imagine how you feel. I am really sorry for your loss. The memory book is a great idea, it may help you too. I just can’t believe what we have all had to endure. If we had only known. ?? Maybe it is better we didn’t. I know for sure I wouldn’t be here if I knew all of this would happen.
Hang in there.

By: waiting4baby32

waiting4baby32 — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 02:08:14 +0000

I think I am reading the chart wrong. Why is this month better than a small batch when the number of logged in families 54 is less than other months such as December 12 batch 65 days. Thanks in advanced to whom ever clarifies this for me. I was never good at charts LOL.

By: Maybe one day

Maybe one day — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 01:22:42 +0000

Wait4ever, so sorry for your loss. Maybe you could make a memory book for your future child with some pictures of your grandmother and stories of the times you shared together? She can live on through your memory.