Because a Picture is worth a Thousand Words
Sometimes it’s easier to explain my projections by showing the actual poll numbers. To the left you’ll see the numbers from the poll that ended 11/02/08. I’m using an older poll so you can see more history – if we use a newer poll there isn’t as much history to see.
Each color band represents one batch. As you can see, the days we are heading into do not have as many people logged in as the days we’ve just made it through. That’s why I’m projecting that we’ll get through more days. If the CCAA is referring what they can, then we should see them get through more days. If they are just trying to hold it to a few LID days each month, then we won’t.
I’m not saying we will get to the 11th. I’m projecting what the CCAA should be able to reasonably do, based on past performance. Reasonably, they should be able to make it to the 11th. We all know that reasonable is not a word used very much in this process though, right?
Our polls represent a percentage of worldwide numbers – we get people registering their LID from all over the world. To get a truer picture, you need to look at all three polls side by side, as my formula takes all three polls into consideration. But, this should give a basic idea of what I’m trying to convey.
Hopefully, this chart will help people understand why my projection is that it’s possible for the CCAA to refer through the 11th of April. I am not projecting an increase in number of babies referred, I’m merely making note of the fact that we’re headed into days without as many people logged in.
Will it happen? I have no idea. But if they are going to do this based on number of referrals, they should be able to get that far.
February 5th, 2010 at 9:52 am
Good morning RQ,
Interesting graph. You are correct, it is easier to grasp in a single column chart.
Just a quick question: When and where did the “only referring x number of days per month” thread come from?
I don’t remember hearing alot about it, then suddenly it was out there with everyone discussing it.
Obviously our agency hasn’t said boo about it, but, that’s to be expected. :)
Happy Friday everyone!
Cindy
LID 5/30/06
February 5th, 2010 at 10:56 am
Thanks a lot, RQ. Now I understand your projections. Definitively Spanish polls are quite different. There are five or six days with many people logged in, not only the 12th).
Again I hope your are right. In this case I would be referred in July or August.
February 5th, 2010 at 10:56 am
Wouldn’t it be great if they went all the way through the 12th! Here’s to positive thinking!!!!!
February 5th, 2010 at 11:09 am
Thank you RQ! I was quite upset when I saw that they had matched only 2 days but seeing this makes sense. Based on your #’s let’s hope plow thru the next few days of April. :)
February 5th, 2010 at 11:34 am
i’ll run naked through the street if the next batch’s cut-off is the 12th.
February 5th, 2010 at 11:35 am
RQ ~ This graph makes things very simple to see and be able to track the process from month to month so thank you! I am hoping that the CCAA continues the pace and I look forward in hearing more good news again soon!!!!!!!
February 5th, 2010 at 12:14 pm
I agree that Aril will be done in June(based on poll). Anyway we can see more graphs for more months like this one?? This really simplifies everything to try to “predict” # of days per month! Thanks RQ.
February 5th, 2010 at 12:16 pm
MacyGirlInChina – nov 05 was a huge month and everyone thought when it was over the number of days referred would increase because referring the same number of children would equal more days. but they didn’t. the continued to do the same number of days which resulted in a drop in referrals.
so the fear is they’ll do this again. that it won’t matter how many families are logged in, they’ll still keep referring the three days since that’s what we’re all used to and that’s what they did in 2009.
February 5th, 2010 at 12:23 pm
So, noENDinsight’s “end” will actually be in sight on the streets? This April 10th mama hopes RQ is on a streak, so to speak, and here’s hoping we’re next.
February 5th, 2010 at 12:38 pm
A couple of batches on this chart are instructive (I hope): In the 3/15 -3/20 batch there were several days with smaller poll numbers but that didn’t stop them from referring more days, and the same is true for 3/9-3/14, which included two weekend days where there weren’t any poll results but there may have been some LIDs registered anyway.
I hope they will keep up this same practice. My personal projection is that they have moved to a 50-60 poll family range rather than the 70+ that they did a few months ago, which would take us to the following dates for the next batches:
March 4/11
April 4/17
May 4/22
June 4/27
July 5/10
Aug. 5/15
Sept. 5/17
Of course, nobody knows what will really happen, except possibly CCAA.
February 5th, 2010 at 3:43 pm
So I just spent a few minutes trying to figure out how accurate RQ’s predictions have been — not as a criticism of course, but as a way to figure out how excited I should be to be in the 5-month projection group (particularly since my subjective prediction is somewhat more pessimistic). My conclusion is that on average RQ is remarkably good at predicting even 5 months out:
I looked at the last 14 referral batches, and went all the way back until that 14th one was still 5 months away, and I used RQ’s Small-Spr. 08 predictions. Here are the averages, with positive numbers indicating that RQ was more optimistic by that many days and negative numbers indicating that CCAA went that many days beyond RQ’s prediction:
1 batch out: 0 days
2 batches out: 0 days
3 batches out: -1 day
4 batches out: -1 day
5 batches out: -2 days
On average, therefore, RQ is spot on for 1-2 batches out, and CCAA has outperformed RQ’s predictions for 3-5 batches out! The actual data are a little more scattered with high and low values of:
1 batch out: -3 to 3 days
2 batches out: -6 to 6 days
3 batches out: -7 to 9 days
4 batches out: -7 to 9 days
5 batches out: -8 to 8 days
Even so, this shows to me that it’s reasonable to think that when you get to the 5 month box, CCAA will likely be within a week of your LID 5 months later, and half the time, your LID will already have passed!
Thanks again to RQ for all of her hard work!!!
February 5th, 2010 at 4:27 pm
Thank you for the picture, RQ. Since my first language is swedish I sometimes have difficulties in understanding all your projections, figures and more… The picture made it much more clear! Hopefully I will see my baby´s face sometimes in summer… Thanks for all the information on this site, RQ, it makes the wait much easier to stand!
Lina
LID 04-28-06
February 5th, 2010 at 4:29 pm
Thanks for the info daddyjac. That info makes me almost giddy!
Very impressive RQ, keep it up.
February 5th, 2010 at 7:54 pm
Wow!
For a math-crippled, visual learner like me this colored chart ROCKS.
: )
M2I
http://www.MyChineseShamrock.blogspot.com
February 5th, 2010 at 7:57 pm
Wow this is so informative and to literally see that between 50-60 referrals have been made in recently batches highlighted by the rainbow colors is very self-explanatory. The days of hundreds of referrals are over. Makes me sad but this is old news. It was also very helpful to see independent validation of your predictions.
Every time I look at the table of colors I hear Kermit The Frog singing Rainbow Connection! Argh…too much kiddie media lately. That song is stuck in my head.
February 5th, 2010 at 10:21 pm
This was a wonderful way to look at the numbers- thanks for doing this for us!!
I have heard that dossiers have advanced in the review room through april 2008? I guess that this is some good news if true.
LID 3/08
February 6th, 2010 at 1:01 am
This is so helpful RQ–thank you. And I want to add my voice to the hearty THANK YOU for all of the work you do for us waiting parents. I know your girls are home and this is a ton of work for you, so it would be completely understandable if you wanted to step down. Your whole site is a gift to all waiting parents, especially those who get zero information from their agencies. I know I echo most people when I say that words cannot express my appreciation for the time and energy you put into this website. Thank you.
February 6th, 2010 at 1:56 am
Now this is the kind of graph I like.
February 7th, 2010 at 4:01 pm
Interesting. But remember that the CCAA took more than five months to issue four sets of referrals, so the referrals per month are worse than they otherwise would appear. Of course, a 20-25% error rate is well within the margin of guessing, and the RQ never pretends that she’s doing more than educated guessing based on the limited data available. She gives us the data, we can sort through it.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:16 pm
My prediction is they will getthrough April 10th in the next batch that we might as well say will be in March. This is OK, i guess i can handle this…LID 4-12-06 puts us in hopefully with a referral early April and travel early June!!! now i wonder what are the average ages of the most recent babies??? would love to be able to spend her first birthday in the states as a family!!!