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When: NSN Referrals

The last 12 referral batches arrived at 24, 39, 32, 47, 30, 32, 31, 52, 51, 27, 34, and 28 day intervals.

The average is 33 days, and the median is 32 days. The shortest interval is 24 days and the longest is 52.

If we look purely at numbers then the soonest we’d expect to see referrals would be Thursday, March 25; the latest would be Thursday, April 22; and the most likely date would be Monday, April 5.

If I had to make a guess, I’d guess that they will arrive within about a week of that April 5th date.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 3rd, 2010 at 10:26 am and is filed under Analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.


 
 
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10 Responses to “When: NSN Referrals”

  1. ray and shannon Says:
    March 3rd, 2010 at 2:31 pm

    I am praying for the 1st of the month trend!!! No April Fools please!!!!

  2. AlisonRoseDad Says:
    March 3rd, 2010 at 4:40 pm

    Whooo, Hooooo
    First to comment. Must be a slow day.
    I will go out on a limb and predict the next batch will arrive on the 5th of April and they will cover up to and including April 17th. Mark your calendars!

  3. daddyjac Says:
    March 3rd, 2010 at 6:00 pm

    When would just be a guess for me, but I agree the 17th is our next cutoff.

  4. shamrock Says:
    March 3rd, 2010 at 8:29 pm

    Thanks RQ for the numbers!

    Any word on what to expect around July and August this year????
    Is there any hope at all for us going in 2010??? or maybe Jan 2011
    Shamrock
    LID 06/02/06

  5. JustWait Says:
    March 3rd, 2010 at 8:30 pm

    I think RQ’s statistics show that the CCAA tries to refer once a month near the beginning of the month. Every once and a while, something throws them off their stride (swine flu, for example), but they always seem to come back to near the beginning of the month. It’s not clockwork. It’s not perfect. But I think it’s description that best fits what’s happened.

  6. franceskasmom Says:
    March 3rd, 2010 at 9:39 pm

    Im going with the 17th too!!!!

    Kristy
    4/21/06

  7. luvcarmel Says:
    March 3rd, 2010 at 10:29 pm

    I think the CCAA will go the April 17th too!

    Best wishes,
    luvcarmel
    LID 4/20/2006

  8. ray and shannon Says:
    March 3rd, 2010 at 11:05 pm

    i hope they throw in the 17th too…keep the prayers going!!! what are RQ’s predictions??

  9. KarenInCa Says:
    March 4th, 2010 at 1:12 am

    I don’t want to rain on anyone’s parade with these happy predictions of another week of referrals next time, but DANG! We’re LID April 2007, and already having a daughter home for 3 years, if we go 1 week at a time, that’s ANOTHER 52 months for us to wait for our second daughter, after already waiting one month short of 3 years. I can’t fathom another 4 and a half years. Things have to get better than 1 week at a time. I know that’s great improvement, but I’m not impressed yet.

  10. chickensoupforchina Says:
    March 4th, 2010 at 2:46 am

    She hasn’t posted projections after this last batch. However last time, I believe that she predicted the 11th for the batch we just received. She was spot on. Then, the 20th for the next batch. We’ll see what she says when she does the Projections post.