Projections
The first chart (below) shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember that each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison.
As you can see, this batch was a similar size to last month. This is good this month, because it gives us hope that the CCAA is doing this based on number of babies, and that they aren’t going to just keep it to the number of days. With some smaller LID days coming up, that means we should be able to get through April a good bit quicker than we made it through March. Assuming the CCAA continues to do about the same number of referrals every month.
Next we’ll take a look at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections.
Here are my projections:
There were people last month who thought I had completely lost my mind (or were being terribly irresponsible) by saying the CCAA could get to the 11th. I’m sure some will say the same thing this time with my projection that the 20th is possible. Please understand that all I’m doing is looking at our poll numbers and looking at what is the most likely based on past performance from the CCAA. I’m not saying they will get to the 20th, I’m just saying that if they refer about the same number of babies then that’s how far they will get. They may do less, they may do more. I’m just projecting what is likely based on past performance.
You can always find your way back to the Projections and When posts by clicking on the Analysis category in the lower right hand column.
I’ll end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.
March 4th, 2010 at 8:28 am
BUT last two batches were 54 and 51 families in poll….
If they will do it until 20th next time, then it is over 80 families.
It’s much more than before…?
I do hope that they can do it!
March 4th, 2010 at 9:07 am
Wow, I am so confused. If I am adding correctly, to go to the 20th would mean that they would refer 85-115-89 (for the three polls), that would take us back to numbers we haven’t seen for almost a year (May 2009). My numbers must be off……..
March 4th, 2010 at 9:34 am
Each referral batch is part of a cycle. Let’s try a simple numbers example. These numbers are being used for ease of addition and subtraction, not because they are relevant in any way.
If there are 50 babies to be referred one month, and in this cycle they have 30 people logged in on one day and 30 on the next day…. then on that month they can only refer one day, but they have 20 babies matched to people on the next day, so they are already 20 matches ahead before they even get started the next month. The next month they have another 50 babies to refer, and the LID days this time are 10 for each day, so they get through 7 days and do not have any pre-matched families going into the next month, where they have four days of 5 people logged in and then the next day they have 50 people logged in. So they only get through four days, but then they already have 30 families matched from the next day going into the next month. If you look at these months then you see referral batches of 30, 70, and 20. Right? Doesn’t make sense until you realize how those numbers came about.
They sometimes fill things in with expedited families, and I try to take that into account as well. That means I let the formula on my spreadsheet do it’s thing, and then I look at whether a lot of expedited families seem to have been referred the previous month. There were some expedited families last month, but there does not seem to have been an overabundance of people reporting expedited referrals.
There is also the possibility that we’re not far off from me needing to create another column with lower numbers. But for now, using the numbers I set up for this column, and based on the past couple of months of referrals, that’s the projection.
March 4th, 2010 at 9:54 am
I get it now…..thanks! I am just looking at straight averages and medians for the last 12 months and the last 6 months. Although I still think going to the 20th is more than what will be referred, I can now see why you got there.
March 4th, 2010 at 10:08 am
Even though I said on the last thread that my prediction is 4/17, I will note that in her last 15 projections, RQ has only over-predicted the number of referral days twice, once by two days and once by three days. She got it exactly right 7 times, CCAA went one day beyond 5 times, and once CCAA went 3 days beyond the RQ prediction.
March 4th, 2010 at 10:23 am
RQ, thanks for your explanation. But, I wonder, do you know for sure these numbers of how many there are in one circle? English is not my native language, so I might have misunderstood.
March 4th, 2010 at 12:07 pm
RQ, that makes sense and would explain why there was some talk of people w/ the 12th having been matched. I hope you are right. I really look forward to the idea of a double digit batch – won’t that be a great day! Thank you again for all your hard work. This is my favorite post each month… after “babies” of course.
March 4th, 2010 at 12:18 pm
If this would come to pass and be true, what an exciting day that will be.
March 4th, 2010 at 1:42 pm
YAHHOOOOO!!!!
We seem to be moving up to JULY until December???
What a dream!!!!!!
GO CCAA GO!!!!
March 4th, 2010 at 2:08 pm
WOW!! I thought the 16th for next month. The 20th???? I hope someone will be close to give me CPR. At that rate, they might finish June this year! Any ideas how big September looks. A long time ago, someone suggested September was a BIG month. Lots of PAPs logged in. Not quite as big as March though. MAybe we will get referral near the end of 2012 instead of middle of 2013?? Thanks RQ!! I don’t think I could do this without you! LID 1-07
March 4th, 2010 at 5:01 pm
Finish June and Start July!!!!
March 4th, 2010 at 5:08 pm
My oh my if referrals go to April 20th we would be in!
Best wishes,
luvcarmel
April 20, 2006
March 4th, 2010 at 5:22 pm
I would love to see July LID’s in Dec. I keep saying to myself come Feb 2011 we should be in! I sure hope so. Thanks RQ for all your hard work.
LID 8-8-06
March 4th, 2010 at 8:42 pm
I love the look of the SPr 2008 small dates! An allocation in August would probably see us continue. Thanks for all you do RQ.
March 5th, 2010 at 4:17 am
thanks so much RQ for coordinating the information, speculation, & guesstimates !! :)
it really does help a lot of us hang in there.
LID 05-23-06
March 5th, 2010 at 4:24 pm
into august by the end of ’10!!!!!
March 5th, 2010 at 4:58 pm
RQ, just want to add my thanks for your accuracy and hard work. Our LID is 06/22/06 and once they get to May 06 LIDs I will feel like we can see our little girl’s face off in the distance getting closer.
March 5th, 2010 at 6:05 pm
RQ you are usually more right than wrong and so i agree they will get past the 17th…i just think the 18th will be cut off!! BUT hoping and praying for the 20th so these babies can be home with their families who have waited over 4 years for them. I hope one day our daughters will be able to comprehend just how special they are for those of us who have waited and prayed and cried and laughed over the past 4 years!! cant wait for April…LID 4-12-06!!!!