A couple of miscellaneous rumors
Every once in a while I get some rumors that are really more of a discussion item than something we can use for analysis. I’ve got a few of them now.
The first comes from several sources, and when I read all of them and try to make it into one cohesive rumor I get that the CCAA does not know how many domestic adoptions took place in previous years, nor do they have any way of knowing how many are happening this year. The provinces each have their own rules for domestic adoption and the federal government at this time does not regulate domestic adoption – with the exception of domestic adoptions within Beijing, which the CCAA is in control of. The CCAA has been working to try to get a handle on domestic adoption nationwide, but it’s not really working out so well for them. The provinces don’t like to give up control to the federal government, and pretty much won’t unless someone strong arms them into it, and no one is doing that right now. With that being said, the CCAA feels that domestic adoption has grown a great deal, but they don’t have specific numbers.
Two sources say that the CCAA currently processes about 400 to 500 adoptions a month. One source says special needs children comprise more than half, another source says special needs varies from 30% to 50%.
Several sources give totals for number of children referred in 2009, but none agree. I’ve seen more than a half dozen figures, all falling between 4,600 and 5,800. All supposedly from the CCAA, and all giving some number between 30% and 50% when discussing the SN percentage of total.
Backlog figures of 12,000 are still be bandied around. Though two agencies report the CCAA admits that with the number of families that have been dropping out, they have no idea of the actual number at this time. If we believe that 12,000 number (I don’t), and if we believe somewhere around 2400 NSN babies a year are being referred (which at this point I think is an optimistic number for future years, unless the CCAA has hit bottom)… then we’d be looking at five more years to get through the backlog. One agency is saying the CCAA told them they should be through May of 2007 within two years time. They would need to do more than two weeks of LID’s every month in order to make that happen, and while I think that’s possible to see two weeks of LID’s at once for a few stretches here and there, I don’t see it happening every month on average. Not unless the CCAA thinks they are going to be able to increase the number of babies available, and there are no rumors (none, nada, zilch) that say the number of babies available is expected to increase.
One would think that as families are removed from the CCAA software application that the software would give updated backlog figures. But apparently, that’s not the case. Of all of the backlog rumors I’ve received, I think the one that says the CCAA can only estimate the figure at this time is probably the most accurate.
And for the final rumor… before I put this out there, let me say that although I’ve seen it a few times, I believe there is only one original source, and that the several times I’ve seen it are people who heard it from the one original source. I’m keeping my eye on this one to see if we see it from other sources, and to see if we see numbers over the next year or two that may back it up, but for now I’m not going to give it a whole lot of weight. With that being said: this rumor says that the CCAA wants to bring the gender imbalance of adopted children closer to balance every year. This next part tends to change a bit, (kind of like the telephone game) but it sounds like the CCAA wants to see an increase of boys to girls every year – some say at least one percent a year, some say a percentage to be determined each year. Once that percentage is decided upon, if there aren’t enough boys being adopted then they will decrease the number of girls available so that their percentage works out by year end. Again, I believe this one comes from a single source, and I will wait to see if we see it from other sources before giving it a whole lot of weight.
I am reporting these rumors because that’s what I do – report the rumors and let you decide what you want to do with them. But I also try to give my opinion on the rumors, and I do not see anything here that should be used as some sort of absolute in figuring something out.
March 16th, 2010 at 8:01 am
My summary : It will be loooooooooong! :o(
Thank you for this rumor pot though! Interesting.
March 16th, 2010 at 9:42 am
thanks rq. imo, the % of SN can’t possibly be as low as 30%. i think it’s at least 50%. as far as boy/girl ratio, i think it’s the case in the SN lists where we see a lot of boys.
March 16th, 2010 at 9:53 am
Makes you wonder how many boys have been sitting in CWI’s in past years and why they were kept in China?
March 16th, 2010 at 1:32 pm
Any rumors about letting single moms adopt from China again??
March 16th, 2010 at 1:42 pm
RQ,
If the 12,000 number of backlog dossiers isn’t to be believed…..what are your thoughts for determining a more accurate number.
March 16th, 2010 at 1:54 pm
Thanks RQ for all the information.
We are LID 06/02/2006.
Do you have any predictions of when we might, maybe, could be getting a referral?
We were hoping it would be before the end of the year?
Molly
March 16th, 2010 at 3:27 pm
shamrock,
Look at the top left hand column of links. The last one listed is “Projections.” That should have the information you need. RQ doesn’t typically answer specific questions like yours in the blog comments. Rather, she periodically puts out a blog on projections based on her poll results. That’s the closest you’ll get to a prediction here.
kms wrote:
“Makes you wonder how many boys have been sitting in CWI’s in past years and why they were kept in China?”
I don’t think there have been that many boys waiting in the SWI/CWI’s except for SN. My understanding is that the few healthy NSN infant/toddler boys that are there are usually adopted domestically. I think that China wants to change its international image with concern to the girls. IA has been mostly girls b/c most of the NSN babies in the SWI’s are indeed girls. So, China has gotten the reputation internationally as a culture that views its girls as unwanted, expendable, etc. (Whether this reputation is correctly earned or not is a topic for another day. What’s important here is that this is how China is often viewed.) If China can even out the ratio of boys to girls that are placed for IA, they can then say, “See? We do treat our boys and girls equally.” This could be part of the explanation for why we are seeing such a dramatic decline in IA from China. If there were a lot of NSN boys waiting in the SWI’s, all they would have to do is make them available for IA and the ratio balances out. Since there probably isn’t a lot of boys waiting, then their solution is to decrease the number of girls adopted out until you get that 50/50 ratio. Last I heard, boys made up about 10% of NSN IA. If that’s true and still the case, then they have decrease referrals of NSN girls by roughly 90% to make the raw numbers more equal. But, when it comes to SN and WC, the numbers are already more closely balanced, so they other option is to really push those programs for IA. I think we’re seeing both of those options in motion now.
March 16th, 2010 at 3:41 pm
Shamrock,
We are LID sisters.
Journey to Maizi:
http://www.babyjellybeans.com/web/do/site/home;jsessionid=EA542BAAA0E20A7667DB6F6B487015DD?ID=148897
March 16th, 2010 at 3:53 pm
shamrock
Here is the link to RQ’s last projection. Look at the last chart to get a feel for when you might get your referral. We are LID: 06/22/06.
It looks like a possible September/October for you. I going with the Spring 08 Small column of which you or I have not appeared on that one yet so I am just make a wild guess.
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2010/03/04/projections-31/
Hope this helps.
March 16th, 2010 at 4:26 pm
Hi Everyone
Thanks for the info. and links.
Dragon Fly – I went on your blog and its lovely. I had to laugh as you have Michael Buble and my friend gave me the CD for Christmas as she thought it was adoption friendly!
I really hope it is this year as we are worn out with waiting.
Shamrock
March 16th, 2010 at 5:26 pm
Thanks Shamrock, I am so with you on that.
March 16th, 2010 at 7:12 pm
sorry hit the wrong button.
what I was going to say was, I would be on a plane tomorrow if I could get a NSN boy. We don’t have a SN program where we live.
March 16th, 2010 at 7:22 pm
I must have lost the first part of my comment when I hit the wrong button.
While there are not a huge number of NSN boys in CWI there are quite a few. However they get referred to countries whose PAPs are not allowed to specify the sex of the child. I have heard of PAPs from one particular country in the past refusing their referrals of NSN boys because they wanted girls. To me this is worse than China’s cultural values and land system that values boys over than girls. All these children need loving families.
I just hope that the overall number of children does not drop to bring statistics into line because PAPs want girls over boys.
Mum to one little emperor from China (who still can’t believe her luck).
March 16th, 2010 at 8:20 pm
My parents adopted 5 out of the 7 of us (2 were naturally born). We comprise of several different backgrounds…each of us different. Korean, Chinese, Sicilian, Moroccan and Nigerian (as well as Welsh and Canadian for the natural born). Adoption is not what it used to be, for now the process is very long and detailed. There were no FBI fingerprints nor criminal background checks back then! For my parents, who were willing to love and accept difference, now I find it’s a whole different process….hoops to jump through.
I have been reading the RQ for over a year. With a LID of 12/28/2006, I sit and wait…and wait. I am hanging in there though and I just keep dreaming. What’s wrong with dreaming huh! I think I have 6 more years to wait. Glad for this forum. My friends just don’t understand. I am finding myself a little snippy with their questions now, so I thought I should join a forum as a “Healthy coping tactic” instead of asking them to “google it!” Hehehehehe I KNOW I will be a fantastic parent. I can’t wait….but, then again…I must! I really like the way RQ thinks. Thank you. You are doing us all a service.
March 16th, 2010 at 10:35 pm
littleemperor – I understand what you are saying that everyone needs a loving family but I persoanlly would be very upset if I were to be referrad a boy after requesting a girl.
I know some people might not agree and that is your right but I feel that my dh and I made a decision at the beginning of this journey and for many reasons decided on adopting a girl for our family – and although China was a counrty we had always wanted to adopt from we also chose it because they allowed us to specify what gender. We want a girl, we chose a program that allows us to specify and that is what I would expect to receive as a referral. If we were not allowed to specify then that is different, you get what you get and you know that going in. I have spent 4 years waiting for our daughter, thinking about her, picking a name for her, buying girl things, decorating a room for her, talking about her etc… and I would be lying if I said I would not be upset.
Don’t get me wrong I would love to have a son one day too but don’t allow people to choose a gender if you are not going to fullfill that request. Going forward maybe China should not allow people to specify? Which I think is fine, but only if you know that going in.
This is just my feelings.
March 17th, 2010 at 12:07 am
Our agency we used to adopt our ds said they will not be allowing singles to adopt.
They claim that the CCAA stated to their Director that their focus is on the best possible family for each child. First preference is given to a two parent family for various reasons.
Volunteers who work at SWI’s in China do validate that provinces are in control of their own domestic adoptions. One particular SWI has PAP’s traveling from other provinces where there are no NSN’s abandonments with the desire to adopt from this SWI because it is situated in a poorer part of China. Nothing seems to be controled, and they call these informal adoptions.
With regards to gender. The program you signed up for is no longer the same. IA changes and most agencies do point that out and that there is no guarantee that the process you signed up for will be the same years later. Having said that, since you have been waiting 4 years, I am sure you will be more likely to receive a girl referral. A reminder too, that t here has been an increase in NSN’s referrals actually having SN’s which China do not consider to be SN’s.
March 17th, 2010 at 5:15 am
Still dreaming,
No offence, but you got it all wrong. China never allowed you to choose gender. They allow you to make a request, but that is what it is: a request of what you would prefer, not something they promise they will fulfill. People who are not open to both sexes should not adopt from China. I am sorry so many American agencies have mislead their clients on this matter. There are also lots of people who just didn’t take in the truth, since earlier there were almost only girls referred.
I think it is very sad that people aren’t looked upon as people, human beings, little persons, but firstly as the sex they belong to. I’ve been in this discussion so many times and can take the flaming that will come. I will keep telling my feelings about the subject, because I think adoption should be about keeping the children in focus and that is what this is all about. It is one thing to wish for a child of a specific gender – I can do that too – but to turn one down based on gender… I agree with the former poster, that is worse than what some people in China have been doing, abandoning girls simply because they are girls. Socio-echonomic pressure has made that happening. What is the pressure from our western cultures, that make people turn their backs on the boys? Actually, that is a very interesting question. Think about it!
March 17th, 2010 at 6:59 am
I am in Australia where all adoption (domestic & international) is overseen by our government. We are told that we are not supposed to specify a sex but many of us did in our letters to CCAA and it got through at the Australian end. We have had quite a number of NSN boys referred to Australian families (especially since 2005) and some of those families had specified that they prefer a girl in their letter to CCAA. So guess there are no guarantees when it comes to the matching room and neither should there be – these are children not commodities.
March 17th, 2010 at 8:01 am
Mamman
No worries, I don’t take offense to it, those are my feelings and some may agree and some may not, I don’t think anyone can be “wrong” with their own feelings. I am with a Canadian agency and yes we were told that we could specify what gender we wished to adopt (although yes China especially at the time was pretty much girls).
Also I get tired of people saying it is all about the kids only (I know I will probably take heat for this) – yes I agree it is about giving them a loving family etc… but I am being honest when I say that I am also doing this for me, we have wanted to be parents for 11 years and we have always wanted to adopt. I think my dh and I will be great loving parents and we literally can’t wait for the day that our dd is home with us, but I am doing this for her and us equally. I don’t know if I would want someone who is doing it “just for the children” to adopt I mean you have to want it for yourselves and your family etc… as well!!
Anyways like I said I don’t take offense to others thoughts/feelings/beliefs as I would hope people wouldn’t take offense to mine. We can’t all be the same and that is good!
March 17th, 2010 at 8:28 am
Interesting excerpt from a PUBLIC trip report from the Quebec Adoption governement agency.
It’s in French, but the highlights are:
1) CCAA acknowledges a sharp drop in adoptable babies
2) CCAA matches between 400-500 per month with 30-50% being special needs
3) In 2009, CCAA matched approximately 5800 children
4) CCAA continues to recieve applications, however the number of applications seems to equal the attrition rate which is stated as 200 per month.
Original text follows:
La situation sur l’adoption internationale
Le CCAA précise que le nombre d’enfants adoptables change constamment, mais qu’il est néanmoins en nette diminution. Il n’est pas possible d’avoir un contrôle sur le nombre d’enfants qui pourraient être adoptés puisqu’il résulte de nombreux facteurs, ce qui rend aussi imprévisible la période d’attente.
Le CCAA aurait réalisé environ 5 800 jumelages en 2009. De façon générale, le CCAA procèderait à environ 400 à 500 jumelages par mois dont 30 % à 50 % sont pour des enfants ayant des besoins spéciaux, ce pourcentage pouvant varier chaque mois.
Le CCAA continue de recevoir de nouveaux dossiers. Il semble, toutefois, que le nombre de nouveaux dossiers reçus équivaudrait au nombre de dossiers retirés, soit environ 200 par mois.
March 17th, 2010 at 9:42 am
Shanggirls, I have the same question for RQ… what would be a better evaluation for the backlog numbers?
March 17th, 2010 at 9:44 am
I don’t think it’s been that long since I did the backlog figures – it’s linked under Important Posts. Maybe I should look at them again and see what I come up with now.
March 17th, 2010 at 9:48 am
Sorry RQ, I forgot about that link… (add a shy smiley here). ;)
March 17th, 2010 at 1:04 pm
Still dreaming in China I agree with you. We were told by our agency if we requested a girl then we would receive a referral for a girl. We have been waiting almost 4 year for our daughter. We have hoped, planned, shopped and prayed for her. Best wishes
March 17th, 2010 at 10:30 pm
still dreaming of china
I know where you are coming from. In our personal letter we talked about a daughter. At the time most children were referred girls. The wait was not as long as now but all through that time all I could think about was that I hoped the program would not close down before we got our referral. When we got the call it was a boy. I can hand on my heart say that all I felt was relief that I was to be a mum. The girls clothes were taken back if possible and a lot are still in the wardrobe. But there was no way that we were going to refuse the referral or have a moments disappointment. This was our child, our son. And yes, it started out because we wanted to be parents but I now realise that it’s so much more than that.
The bottom line is that agencies can’t and shouldn’t promise anything. The children are not theirs, the program is not theirs. I don’t believe in China’s IA adoption regulations that they promise to deliver the requested sex. They try and accomodate requests – but that is just what they are requests. And nowadays i think if someone refused a referral based on sex then they wouldn’t be referred another child – and that is right and just. Personally I don’t think China should ever have changed referrals in the past. But they have come along way since then in how they view the children and so should all PAPs.