LID Poll Closed July 15, 2010
Here are the numbers for our most recent LID poll, closed July 15, 2010.
I’ll be playing with the numbers later, but for now, I know many of you are anxious to see what they look like.
I will caution that I won’t be using the new poll numbers right away. I have to incorporate them into my formulas, and it takes some tweaks here and there to feel comfortable enough with them to use for projections.
July 18th, 2010 at 3:35 pm
Thank you! I’ve been looking forward to the poll results. Calculation time :-)
July 18th, 2010 at 4:09 pm
What kind of numbers are we looking at with regards to individuals that do not enter their LID date?
July 18th, 2010 at 5:32 pm
Holy Hannah, compared to the Nov poll there are now an extra 45 families logged in between May 15-19th ! Where have they been? I must check this site several times a day during referral times and limit myself to daily otherwise, for the last 2.5 YEARS!!. Have they just been lurking and never entered the polls before or somehow survived without checking this site regulalry ? That could add an extra month to our wait, we are early June.
I was really hoping for a referral in Dec. PLEASE SANTA I’ve been good.
July 18th, 2010 at 6:49 pm
Don’t know what happened but my LID is not represented even though I voted. I even went into the poll site 2 weeks ago thinking it was a new poll and it told me I had already voted and yet the date is not there. Just curious.
July 18th, 2010 at 6:51 pm
No…never mind. It was me. I am sick at the moment and through runny eyes and snotty nose I looked at the wrong month. My apologies.
July 18th, 2010 at 6:52 pm
Canadawait, you are correct there are more families in the poll between May 15th and 19th, but If you compare this poll to the last one you will see there were more families referred this month. I believe it went from 53 to 73 (I did not confirm the old number ,but I think I am close). I think all in all if you thought you were getting a referral in December you probably still are.
Larry
LID: 5/22/06
July 18th, 2010 at 6:55 pm
IIRC, on average we get something like 30% of the total voting in our polls… but those who are close to a referral come in much (much, much, much) larger numbers than those who still have a ways to go.
I’ve continually warned that you can’t compare months that are too far apart. This is not a scientific poll. It still has value, there is much we can learn from it, but if you treat it like a scientific poll then your conclusions are likely to be faulty.
July 18th, 2010 at 11:14 pm
Thanks RQ! :)
5/29/06
July 19th, 2010 at 8:04 am
littleperson,
There is no way to “look” at numbers of people who do not participate. You don’t know what you don’t know.
July 19th, 2010 at 8:46 am
Not entirely true ldw4mlo. On a few occasions we’ve gotten hard numbers from the CCAA – the number of referrals sent out worldwide in a batch, for instance. And when that has happened we’ve been able to correlate that with the poll numbers to get an idea of percentages.
So while we can’t “look” at the other 70% directly, we can make some pretty educated guesses about them.
What bothers me is when people try to take the projections out farther than our polling data supports. I take it about as far as we should with my projections, any farther than that and I fear that the numbers drop too much and people are giving themselves false hope. I’ve repeatedly warned against doing that, and yet every few months we get another group of people doing it. I’ve tried to guess at how much to add, say, 4% a month and then 2% a month after so long and then it levels off… but it’s not consistent. I think that probably has to do with how active the various DTC and LID groups are, as I think some of them really push for people to go vote, and others don’t.
July 19th, 2010 at 9:24 am
I am a bit amazed at the number of LIDs in May 2006 versus June 2006. Was May that much busier than June?
It looks like once May is done they will fly through June just because there are less people in line.
July 19th, 2010 at 11:22 am
lightiv,
That’s what we thought about May, but as we got closer to May LIDs getting referrals, the numbers increased a lot. I suspect the same thing will happen with June numbers as you get closer. People close to getting a referral are here in high numbers, those further out are not.
July 19th, 2010 at 12:03 pm
You can subtract one family from 12/19/06 – we got matched right after I responded to the poll.
Our agency has been matching people with WC much faster lately. Hopefully that will help to speed up the line for those of you who can’t switch to SN’s.
July 19th, 2010 at 1:01 pm
When I look on this chart I count 15 LID days in beteen now and my LID of June 2nd. But on China Adoption Forcaset is tells me 23 days to be processed. Which is correct? I am confused and want to have an exact count down as far as LID days.
July 19th, 2010 at 1:08 pm
If you’re that close you can just use a calendar and count the days. Most of the time I suggest using http://www.timeanddate.com/date/duration.html to figure how many days are between two dates.
Honestly, once I got so close I think I would forget days (other than the count I’d already been using, the marbles or whatever) and would be counting down number of people ahead of me using poll numbers.
July 19th, 2010 at 1:32 pm
By no means is this major data but it may help look at how the poll numbers drop as compared to the # of LIDs. My agency is a “large, once China-only” agency. I have been told by a rep that the agency has a similar # LID families for May, June and August, with a slight drop in July, I think these months will turn out to be similar in size with July a little less.
July 19th, 2010 at 2:00 pm
Some of you may want to check this out – done after the last poll was closed:
http://chinaadopttalk.com/2009/12/10/another-look-at-poll-numbers-and-attrition-results/
July 19th, 2010 at 2:37 pm
RQ : What are your thoughts about the CCAA doing 14 calendar days ? I know there was a holiday in those 14 days but let’s remember what the CCAA did with the Chinese New Year (one month -> 6 days and the other -> 9 days, splitting the CNY week somewhere in between). I find this encouraging … And some of the babies were very young (4 months old) !
RDT.
July 19th, 2010 at 2:39 pm
P.S. : It’s been almost 3 and a half years that we haven’t seen a two digit number of calendar days !
RDT.
July 19th, 2010 at 2:55 pm
It’s just the way it fell – they focus on the number of referrals they can mail out per batch without splitting a day. It just worked out that lots of weekend days plus the vacation days all got jammed into one referral batch so the days referred looked big. For those taking marbles out of a jar it’s a nice boost, but for those looking at number of referrals it’s not that big of a deal. They only did one day better than my smallest projection, didn’t even make it up to the second projection column.
July 20th, 2010 at 9:10 am
We are still waiting for our package, we know that it has arrived ( was confirmed by our department of Community Services on friday, but had to be sent to our agency ( in another province) for translation, then it gets sent back to our Department of Community Services for us to finnally pick up…. we are hoping today or tommorow, can’t wait to see her picture and sweet face at last!!