The first chart shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember that each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison.

You can, however, see that the last seven batches have been in a similar range. Historically the numbers have deviated a good deal, I find it interesting that they are now holding rather steady.

Next we’ll take a look at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections, the X shows where the actual referrals fell. An X in the Spr 2008 column means the referral exactly matched that projection. An X between two columns means the reality fell between those two projections.

A few months ago I made the decision to add a new, smaller, column. I’ve been fiddling with the numbers for that column and think I’m close to where I need to be now, but it’s possible they will still need tweaking. Keep that in mind until I tell you I’ve landed on numbers I’m happy with.

Here are my projections:

 
You can always find your way back to the Projections and When posts by clicking on the Analysis category in the lower right hand column.

I’ll end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.

This entry was posted on Monday, August 23rd, 2010 at 12:23 pm and is filed under Analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.