When
The last 12 referral batches arrived at 31, 34, 35, 26, 28, 32, 24, 27, 37, 32, and 31 day intervals.
The shortest time frame is 24 days, the longest is 38.
The average over the last year is 31 the median is 32. If we throw out the two highest and lowest the average is still 31 and 32. If we look at the last six months… 32 and 32. The past three months is 33 and 32.
Looking at the numbers, the soonest we’d expect to see them this month would be Monday, January 21, the latest would be Monday, February 04. The most likely date of arrival, based on the numbers, is Monday, January 28.
Spring Festival (CNY) is February 10th, and the CCCWA will be off February 9th through 15th, though they will have to work February 16th and 17th to make up for some of their time off. Long ago, when the matching room worked a few weeks on a batch, they timed things with the holidays, so we received a batch just before they left. However, I don’t believe this is as big of an issue these days, since the matching process is completed in a day or two, now. Still, it’s something to keep in mind.
January 8th, 2013 at 11:00 am
Always excited to see these every month and especially the projections post! I’m assuming projections will be very similar or the same to last month given your predictions were spot on last month, but still love to see them!!
January 8th, 2013 at 11:13 am
I have a question…
Tax credit has been extended. You only have 5 years to carry over expenses. We started to document expenses in 2007. We never imagined a 7 yr. wait. Are we and others in our situation out of luck??? Or, are we just out of luck with the money we spent in earlier years?? Can we still claim the credit. LID 1-16-07
THANKS!
January 8th, 2013 at 11:52 am
After 6.5 years we are switching to Special Needs. We are older, our children are older and we feel it will be 2.5-3 years before we could possibly receive a referral. Our decision was made as we feel we will start discussions, talk to referrals and see if adopting an older child is a fit for out family. Thank you seems so little to say for your daily support and information RQ. Long after your journey you give to us, the ones still waiting. Thank you.
January 8th, 2013 at 12:56 pm
got our referral last month at high speed now . waiting for travel approval.we were told if we don`t get the approval in the next few days we will not be able to fly until after new year .we are a log in sept 2006 it has been a huge wait , now we are being help up because of holiday . some time at end of feb .asked if we get the approval soon we expite the plane tickets ,,, no promises
January 8th, 2013 at 12:58 pm
tax credit ..i was told that you can claim it after the adoption has been completed ,,we logged in sept 2006 . had the money then , but septic and roof went and so did the money to pay . i looks like the baby will be a credit card baby . hopefully we get the credit and pay it off
January 8th, 2013 at 1:50 pm
sorry my spelling is horrible , but if we do not get travel approval in the next few days we are out of luck till after new year .long 7 year wait
January 9th, 2013 at 10:43 am
Wait4ever – The expenses you’ve incurred in the most recent five years (refingerprinting, home study updates, I600 or I800 renewals) plus the travel and in China expenses (airfare, government fees, orphanage donation) and post placement reports should get you close to the maximum credit, correct? Worst case, after enduring such a long process, I think your agency could help out by making the receipt you turn in with your paper 1040 just state the expenses incurred to complete the adoption without adding the dates you paid them. I know our receipts have always listed the incurred expenses without the dates and we’ve never been questioned. (3 adoptions)
January 21st, 2013 at 1:06 am
Making it under the wire . Leave Thursday . Consulate app is feb 6th. Make it just before new year
January 21st, 2013 at 5:42 pm
Great news, Eric! Congrats from a fellow Sept. lidder.
January 22nd, 2013 at 8:05 am
Thank you . We adopted our first daughter from china in 2003.we began the process for a second adoption in 2006. It has been a long road . Glad we are on our way.