The last 12 referral batches arrived at 31, 34, 35, 26, 28, 32, 24, 27, 37, 32, and 31 day intervals.
The shortest time frame is 24 days, the longest is 38.
The average over the last year is 31 the median is 32. If we throw out the two highest and lowest the average is still 31 and 32. If we look at the last six months… 32 and 32. The past three months is 33 and 32.
Looking at the numbers, the soonest we’d expect to see them this month would be Monday, January 21, the latest would be Monday, February 04. The most likely date of arrival, based on the numbers, is Monday, January 28.
Spring Festival (CNY) is February 10th, and the CCCWA will be off February 9th through 15th, though they will have to work February 16th and 17th to make up for some of their time off. Long ago, when the matching room worked a few weeks on a batch, they timed things with the holidays, so we received a batch just before they left. However, I don’t believe this is as big of an issue these days, since the matching process is completed in a day or two, now. Still, it’s something to keep in mind.