Projections
The first chart shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison.
Next, we’ll take a look at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections — the X shows where the actual referrals fell. In those cases where I’ve added a new column and things would have looked different had that column been in place at the time, I’ve used a ~ to show where they would have fallen on the new column.
Here are the projections:
You can always find your way back to the Projections and When posts by clicking on the Analysis category in the lower right hand column.
I’ll end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCCWA continuing to do what they’ve been doing. There’s no way of knowing if they’ll continue to follow recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.
.
January 9th, 2013 at 11:24 am
Yeah! Have been waiting for this post! Thanks for doing it!!
January 9th, 2013 at 11:24 am
Hi RQ. Our LID was 09/28. We were matched a 30 month little girl in the October batch. We did not get the call until Nov 12. Our agency, after requesting further medical information, somehow suggested we asked for a new referral and after visiting different neurologists here in Spain we sadly decided to do so Nov 28. The new referral has not arrived with the December batch. Has anyone gone through something similar? How long does it take to receive a new referral? Will we have to wait until the January batch? Did you have problems with the new referral? Thanks. Leonor
January 9th, 2013 at 11:55 am
carmenopepe – we went through the same unfortunate event in 2011. It was the hardest decision in our lives. Our 2nd referral did not come with the regular monthly referrals, only ours was sent to our agency and it came one month after the CCAA confirmed to our agency that they agreed with our decision not to accept the referral. I would think you may get a surprise call before the next batch. Stick with it, you’ll see her beautiful face soon.
January 9th, 2013 at 2:31 pm
Thanks so much WaitingforLeeAnn. Was everything ok with the second referral? We are scared to death of having to deal with something similar again…
January 9th, 2013 at 3:49 pm
There were no issues with the second referral whatsoever. As long as the CCAA agrees with your decision, it seemed like we went back to the front of the waiting line. Our second referral was from a different province than the first referral we received.
January 10th, 2013 at 7:41 am
carmenopepe — some people get them with a referral batch, others get a surprise phone call mid-month. If the CCCWA agrees with you, they’re usually pretty conscientious about making sure everything is okay with the second referral.
January 10th, 2013 at 6:54 pm
carmenopepe – we got a referral earlier this year we sadly had to decline, and then a month later got a referral from a different province and it was really good, home now 7 months and he is wonderful. But the hardest part of the entire wait was in between referrals. Good luck I hope you hear soon!!
January 11th, 2013 at 5:35 am
Thanks for all your comments. Very helpful and supportive. Thanks. Leonor
January 20th, 2013 at 4:06 pm
We have just returned from Beijing with our beautiful Lucy who is from Jiangxi province, LID Sept 26, 2006. I met a woman who has adopted 3 daughters from China, she was touring with her 13 year old. She visited the CCCWA office and was able to take a tour and take photos. She was told that 4000 babies were matched last year. Just thought that this may be interesting RQ.
January 20th, 2013 at 8:49 pm
Hello.
My agency says this last few months:
“The CCCWA has finished the review of the adoption application documents registered with our office before April 30th, 2012.
I just noticed that the box (in the RQ site) isn’t changed, but it seems that CCCWA has began the review of May 2012….
January 22nd, 2013 at 10:16 am
Kylasmum – Congratulations!! I am hoping to travel to Jiangxi late Feb or early March to bring home my daughter Katie. I would love to know more about your trip. Which orphanage was Lucy with? I’ve been having huge issues with logging into this site so haven’t posted for a while but on January 2nd I finally got the CALL!! She just turned one year on January 5th. Maybe by the time the next Babies posting happen, I’ll have figured out how to post a photo :-)
January 22nd, 2013 at 3:26 pm
Great you just returned . We are a log in of sept 2006. We leave thursday , for nanchang . Get out daughter next tursday .
January 22nd, 2013 at 3:33 pm
we got our first referal in november , and sadly there were medical issues . we requested a new one and came very quickly.