The first chart shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison.
Look at the averages for 2011 Forward, Past Year, Past 6 Months, Past 3 Months — pretty much tells the story, doesn’t it?
Next, we’ll take a look at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections — the X shows where the actual referrals fell. In those cases where I’ve added a new column and things would have looked different had that column been in place at the time, I’ve used a ~ to show where they would have fallen on the new column.
Here are the projections:
You can always find your way back to the Projections and When posts by clicking on the Analysis category in the lower right hand column.
I’ll end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCCWA continuing to do what they’ve been doing. There’s no way of knowing if they’ll continue to follow recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.