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Projections


The first chart shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison.
090113PollNumberHistory

I’ve considered the July batch to be two months in the yearly, six month, and three month averages. Also, the new poll isn’t figured into the weighted average figure, as we really need a few ‘normal’ months (in terms of time span) before I can get a handle on how the new poll fits.

Next, we’ll take a look at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections — the X shows where the actual referrals fell. In those cases where I’ve added a new column and things would have looked different had that column been in place at the time, I’ve used a ~ to show where they would have fallen on the new column.

090113-GoodBadHistory

Based on the wait between batches, I’d hoped we’d see number equal to 1.5 months of projections… but sadly, they were only one day above the projections.

Here are the projections:

Oct-Nov2006

090113Projections
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

I have no idea when the next batch will arrive, and it may be better to number them in the future, rather than try to guess months. We’ll see if the CCCWA continues to be as erratic as they have since April, but I hope they find some consistency once again.

You can always find your way back to the Projections and When posts by clicking the Analysis category in the lower right hand column.

I’ll end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCCWA continuing to do what they’ve been doing. There’s no way of knowing if they’ll continue to follow recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.

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3 Responses to “Projections”

  1. dutchdeb Says:

    It is awful! It takes more and more time to send referrals and there are less and less referrals…… It is heartbreaking!!!! I am home with DD #2 since almost 3 years now. It took 5 years to that last referral. It took 3 months (from ‘send to china’ to ‘referral arrive’) for #1. What a different time-frame!!!! Where does this ends??? My heart goes out to those who are waiting. I know the wait is worth it!!! But I know also how hard is is to see the wait grow longer and longer….. Keep faith, you all waiting parents (to be), keep faith!!!

    Love from Holland.

  2. LittlePete Says:

    What we already know but…interesting article on CNN.com, I hope the link works. If not, the title is entitled ‘The Decline of International Adoption’

    The decline of international adoption – CNN.com*

  3. LittlePete Says:

    Woops, lets try that again…

    http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/16/world/international-adoption-main-story-decline/index.html?iid=article_sidebar