The first chart (below) shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember that each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct [...]

The last 12 referral batches arrived at 24, 39, 32, 47, 30, 32, 31, 52, 51, 27, 34, and 28 day intervals.
The average is 33 days, and the median is 32 days. The shortest interval is 24 days and the longest is 52.
If we look purely at numbers then the soonest we’d expect to see [...]

It looks like we need to count the list that came out Sunday night. It wasn’t as large as some, but I’m hearing that it was definitely large enough to count.

Looking at the numbers: The shortest time frame is 20 days (the time just waited), the longest is 49. The average [...]

Sometimes it’s easier to explain my projections by showing the actual poll numbers. To the left you’ll see the numbers from the poll that ended 11/02/08. I’m using an older poll so you can see more history – if we use a newer poll there isn’t as much history to see.
Each color band represents one [...]

The first chart (below) shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember that each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct [...]

The last 12 referral batches arrived at 18, 24, 39, 32, 47, 30, 32, 31, 52, 51, 27, and 34 day intervals.
The average is 35 days, and the median is 32 days. The shortest interval is 18 days and the longest is 52.
If we were to look purely at numbers then [...]