For those with a LID past my projections, the best way to get a general time frame is to use average LID Days referred per month. As you get closer and closer, you can begin using the polling data, but it’s not practical if you’re still months and months away. In the past three months [...]

The first chart shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison. The [...]

The last 12 referral batches arrived at 31, 31, 27, 33, 31, 25, 35, 21, 31, 34, 35 and 26 day intervals. During the past 12 referral cycles they’ve arrived at 31 days four times and 35 days two times. The shortest time frame is 21 days, the longest is 35. The average over the [...]

   The first chart shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison. [...]

Phone calls came at the 35 day mark this month. We’ve had two fairly long stretches at 34 and 35 days, I hope this isn’t a new pattern. The one year average is currently 30 days, while the three month average is 33 days: 365/30 is 12, but 365/33 is only 11. The last 12 [...]

The CCAA/CCCWA has, over the years, made several obvious (to me) changes in the way they decide how many babies will be in a given batch of referrals. Long ago it seemed they were trying to hit a yearly average, and it worked for me to carry forward (or backwards) numbers that deviated from the [...]