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Archive for the 'Analysis' Category

Projections

Wednesday, January 25th, 2012

The first chart shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison. I [...]

When

Monday, January 23rd, 2012

Has everyone had fun CNY celebrations? We saw phone calls at the 31 day mark this month. The last 12 referral batches arrived at 22, 36, 28, 31, 31, 27, 33, 31, 25, 35, 21 and 31 day intervals. The past 12 referral cycles they have arrived at 31 days four times. The shortest time [...]

Projections

Friday, December 23rd, 2011

The first chart shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison.   [...]

When

Thursday, December 22nd, 2011

Phone calls came at the 21 day mark this month. The last 12 referral batches arrived at 47, 22, 36, 28, 31, 31, 27, 33, 31, 25, 35, and 21 day intervals. You’ll note that the shortest intervals have been 21, 22, 23, and 27 days. So while it caught us by surprise, it wasn’t [...]

Projections

Thursday, December 1st, 2011

While not on a specific schedule, it does seem the CCAA is keeping the expedited families at a sort-of predictable rate: referring the entire 2007 month at some point while they refer the 2006 month for everyone else. From what I’m hearing, they referred the August 2007 families this time. This means that, while it [...]

When

Wednesday, November 30th, 2011

I am pleased that, so far, referrals have arrived at a steady interval. We’ve come to expect the CCCWA to send them out sporadically during the last few months of the year, so this has been a pleasant surprise. The last 12 referral batches arrived at 46, 47, 22, 36, 28, 31, 31, 27, 33, [...]