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Phone Calls, and the When Post

July 16th, 2013

It appears phone calls began yesterday, and the cut-off date appears to be November 6th.

If you’re expecting (or have) your referral, and would like to share your news; or if you’re in another program (SN and/or another country) and would like to share your news; please list blog name and blog URL in the comments to this post. Since this is a larger batch than we’ve been seeing, perhaps we can have a Babies! post this month? Once can hope.

As to when we’ll see the next batch… instead of using the 77 day interval between these last referrals, I’m going to use the time stats from the most recent referral batch to figure the next window, as I assume the bugs in the computer system are worked out and they can get back to a normal schedule. So, with this in mind, the soonest we’d expect to see them would be Thursday, August 08, the latest would be Thursday, August 15. The most likely date of arrival, based on the numbers, is Wednesday, August 14.

Congrats to everyone in included this month. The projections post is going to be tricky this month, but I’ll work on it so I can get it up in the next day or two.

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R4 – November 6th

July 15th, 2013

Multiple agencies are confirming November 6th as cut-off, so why is it only an R4? Because multiple agencies are so unsure about the new system.

I believe the CCCWA’s cut-off is November 6th, but it appears agencies aren’t very confident the new system will actually be able to send the referrals. So…R4.

Congrats to everyone included! I’m crossing my fingers you’ll soon see your child’s face for the first time :)

November 6th?

July 12th, 2013

I see people talking about a cut-off date of November 6th, but don’t see anyone naming a source. I’ll give it an R2 at this point.

To get an idea of how this fits with projections, see this post from a few days ago, and the Projections post after the last batch. In a nutshell, it isn’t good, but isn’t terrible, either.

If anyone has a source for this rumor, please share. I see people talking about in multiple places (and multiple languages), but can’t figure out where it originated.

Not much.

July 11th, 2013

An Agency in Europe reports the CCCWA has no intention of ending “the program”, and families shouldn’t be afraid. They also report the new computer system will not speed anything up, either.

And then there is a report that referrals are in the “place of exit”, or possibly, “outbox”, depending on how you translate it, and the time is growing closer for the CCCWA to push the send key.

I see nothing about a cut-off date, but I continue to see reports of TA’s and PA’s from families in the SN program.

Possibly another week or two

July 10th, 2013

A European agency reports the CCCWA says referrals should come out “at most” within a week or two. The agency says the CCCWA would not give them a cut-off date.

Nothing. Again.

July 9th, 2013

I don’t see anyone talking about the SN list. No news of whether it was big or small, and no one saying they think they may have found their match.

I also don’t see any talk of a NSN cut-off date.

From the most recent Projections post, the May/June date was November 2nd, the Jun/July date was November 10th, and the Jul/Aug date was November 15th. We’ve been the equivalent of two and a half referral cycles, so theoretically we should see something between the tenth and fifteenth — but I’m not holding my breath. I’m terrified we’ll see something close to the second, and will be thrilled if we get to the tenth.

The thing is, I was about to decide whether or not I needed to add a new column, where the next three dates would have been 10/28, 11/6, and 11/10. There will be no way of knowing how many months they’ve done this time, for sure. And it will likely be another month or two before we figure out whether they’ve reduced the ceiling again, or it’s just a fluctuation.