30 Months
A European agency is telling their people that the wait will get to 30 months. The CCAA has told them that more people were logged in during 2006 than during 2005 and that things will continue to slow down.
What do I think? I think we already knew that things would reach at least 30 months, but it is nice that an agency is sharing this information.
There are still agencies assuring their people that the CCAA doesn’t want the wait to go over 2 years. Well, they didn’t “want” the wait to go over one year either, did they?
April 18th, 2007 at 6:38 am
Sadly, I agree with you. Every month we all look for a speed up so the wait will at a minimum not increase, but every month the wait gets longer.
April 18th, 2007 at 6:51 am
Our large China only agency just shared with us a week ago that the wait would be 24-36 months. This is the FIRST time that they have EVER gave an estimate on how long they thought the wait would be.
April 18th, 2007 at 7:04 am
When we started the “paperchase”, our large China only North American agency was still telling people that they were seeing refferals in as little as 6 – 8 months,(even though at that time the actual or current wait was 12 months). We finished our dossier in just under 2 months.(Yes I walked the paperwork to several places to accomplish this feat). Had we taken the 4-6 months they said it would take to do our “paperchase” we would have been LID probably in 08 or 09 of 2006 instead of our current 06/06. Point is although there are several agencies telling lies, you should come into this IA arena with some research prior to entering the ring. We did our homework and knew that the wait was 12 months at the time and would lengthen a little more.(We DID NOT figure it would double but understand that CCAA is only interested in matching babies, not generating “funds” as some still think). And when it comes down to it I don’t care if it does go to 30 months,( although that would SUCK),so long as the CCAA doesn’t give in and “matches” us to the child that was meant for us. Take care and hang on for the long ride ahead. Waiting in Florida, 06/06.
April 18th, 2007 at 7:13 am
Luna, I believe we have the same agency. Not to start trouble but the correct e-mail said it “could” not “would” reach 24 to 36 months. But as I said in my previous reply, this same agency also does not or will not tell the whole truth and nothing but the truth, so help us ***.
April 18th, 2007 at 7:22 am
I just do not know if many people are going to continue to want to adopt from China if the times continue to lengthen. But then again, was that all a part of the CCAA’s plan?
April 18th, 2007 at 7:23 am
I’m glad the agencies are finally looking at the numbers and acknowledging there is no wiggle room to justify their “Wait times fluctuate and we have no way of knowing what will happen” party line. The backlog is the backlog. Geez, I looked at the facts available when I was LID in Mar. of 06 and thought “looks like a 3 year wait is coming down the pike.”
April 18th, 2007 at 7:28 am
ugh. i wanna go back to bed now. Somehow, even though we all knew it, seeing it in writing from an agency still really stinks!!
April 18th, 2007 at 7:53 am
Understanding that this is all pure conjecture (and believing still that it will stabilize at some point!), did the agency give any sense of at what rate they thought it “could” lengthen to 30 months (i.e. for what range log in dates)? With an early March 2006 LID, I’m still between hopeful and confident for a late 07/early 08 referral, which would be in the 21-22 month wait timeframe.
Thanks!
April 18th, 2007 at 7:58 am
eversopatientnot,
You are correct….I haven’t had enough coffee yet this morning! =)
April 18th, 2007 at 8:01 am
I’m surprised that anyone would be surprised by this news. It’s about time an official body was honest about the wait. It stinks, that’s for sure. But the writing has been on the wall for a long time now.
April 18th, 2007 at 8:15 am
I am not completely surprised by the estimate of 24-36 months, but I am very surprised by the comment that 2006 has more LIDs than 2005. I wonder how much more? And yes, I am surprised…Although you would have expected that Jan-March 2006 might still be huge because the wait times had not dramatically increased yet, after this time wait time went up dramatically. I guess this means that it took until the second half of 2006 for the ‘ripple effects’ of increased wait times to turn down the number of dossiers submitted to china. Very sad!!!
April 18th, 2007 at 8:26 am
Actually, I think what happened was that once the wait times started going up a lot of people who were looking at doing it soon but not just yet decided they needed to get their hiney’s in gear and get started. Especially those with one home already who knew they wanted to go back – when the wait was six months they were looking at getting started in another 6 or 8 months, when the wait went up they needed to get started ASAP.
It wasn’t until mid summer last year that reality hit that the slowdown was likely a permanent fixture. And by the time you’d expect people to have started going elsewhere, the rule changes were being discussed and a lot more people jumped in right away to make sure they could get a dossier in before the rules changed.
Plus, the CCAA has been adding countries that could apply to their program, creating even more of an influx.
April 18th, 2007 at 8:36 am
Thanks RQ. That makes a lot of sense. But I wonder why the CCAA would want to add more countries to the mix if they knew wait times were going up dramatically? I guess we can assume the plans for this were made during the time when the wait time was 6-8 months (and they probably assumed that there was going to be enough paper ready babies). I guess we will never know for sure will we… and it goes to show that the CCAA probably did not anticipate that things would get like this…The main thing is that they will continue with the program.
I just feel so bad for those waiting in the line. I have waited 17 months; and could potentially wait 19-22 months with a November 2005 LID (once I would have said 17-20 months), so its really hard thnking about the wait times going up even more, but I know we all have to be prepared for the worst. I will still hope for the ‘BEST’.
Thanks again for clarifying things.
I hope the baby is well.
April 18th, 2007 at 8:40 am
Last comment: I do not want anyone to think that I don’t understand how you feel about having to wait even long than I have to with a November 2005 LID. I totally do!! This is hard for everyone and I feel bad for ALL of us. Hang in there.
April 18th, 2007 at 8:56 am
Well, this is not news in Canada, at least.
One of the big agencies here issued an update to their clients almost 2 months ago, stating that they believe anyone logged in since March 2006 will probably have to wait *at least* 24 months for a referral.
April 18th, 2007 at 9:30 am
I agree that the writing’s been on the wall for some time now. It sucks, but a potential three year wait (with an LID in May 2006) now seems like a reasonable estimate. I’m not even confident the program will stay open long enough for us to adopt a child from China. [Talk about expecting the worst!]
Unfortunately, in Canada, we’re not permitted to pursue two options at once, so I’m again faced with a really tough decision. We had thought about switching programs at Christmastime, but decided we could wait until 2008. I just spoke to my DH and neither one of us is prepared to wait until 2009, particularly given my advanced age! and the fact that we want more than one child in our family.
Whoever said that adoption is not for the weak couldn’t have been more right … unfortunately!
Jackie
April 18th, 2007 at 10:04 am
With a log in date of 8-30-06 and a 3 year wait we are thinking about switching to Russia or another country. Anybody else thinking this?
April 18th, 2007 at 10:08 am
I’m actually glad to see this post. It’s realisitc, and gives me a clearer perspective. There’s nothing I can do to change this, so I might as well hang on for the ride. It’ll be bumpy, but worth it.
April 18th, 2007 at 10:09 am
dmp,
Russia has issues too right now. You might want to research that country.
April 18th, 2007 at 10:27 am
I think that the only way this wait will improve and not snowball is if a significant portion of us drop out.
We are doing two adoptions at once, which takes some pressure off of our China wait (not much though). Had we not been with a China only agency, we would have switched months ago. But, our agency (lucky for them) have lots of our money and are offering us little back if we drop out. And, look at how much time we have invested here! I think we started our paperchase a year ago (and ours was quick).
April 18th, 2007 at 11:10 am
I have been looking at Russia now for about 2 months. The political side of the country has settled down and adoption time right now is 4 months for referral and travel is within 6 months after referral so I could have my child within a year. (Then again when I started the China process I was suppose to have my daughter by this Christmas 2007 soon to be Christmas 2010). The draw backs are its cost about $10,000 more than China, you have to travel twice and the most important is that Russian babies tend to have more medical issues than any other country(alcohol). Economically speaking, Russia is where China was 10 to 20 years ago namely that people there are poor and cannot afford keeping their children. The Russia today is very similair to the China of yesterday. I am not being anti China or pro Russia what I am is pro for me and everybody else to get a child. My wife and I cannot have children and when we tried adoption in America the birth mother changed her mind a day after the birth. We had to give the baby back, I was a father for 14 hours, I cut the babies cord, it was the 2nd happiest day of my life and yet 1 day later the worst day of my life. Will we switch to another country, I’m not sure but I think everybody should educate themselves on the possibility that they may have to. Thankyou for reading and I hope all of us get the baby/child we want.
April 18th, 2007 at 11:16 am
The reality of the now (possible) 3-year wait has, as some have already mentioned, been on the wall for some time now.
My question for those of you considering dropping out of China is… to what other country are you going to turn? Both Russia and Guatemala are looking like they will be out of the picture very soon. As horrifically long as the China wait is, at least the CCAA is always had a child matched at the end of the process. My concern lies in the possiblity of people making a rash decision to leave the China option, only to discover that it (China) was actually the best option available.
~Laureen
http://www.babysites.com/sites/laureenmary
Laureen
April 18th, 2007 at 11:20 am
wickedwitcheast: what other country are you also adopting from? I wasn’t aware that you can adopt from another country while still adopting from China?
April 18th, 2007 at 11:20 am
dmp-
Thank you for your hoest and poignant post. I wish you and your wife wisdom and peace in whatever decision you make.
Laureen
http://www.babysites.com/sites/laureenmary
April 18th, 2007 at 11:31 am
GraciesMom: Check out the forums. There are a few threads dealing with interim adoptions, as well as a lot of confusion regarding whether or not CCAA still allows it. There are a lot of RQ members who are currently doing interim adoptions from Vietnam and India, as well as a few other countries. Some agencies say that CCAA won’t allow it, yet others say that it is individual agency policy that dictates interim adoptions, and are actively helping families to do just that.
April 18th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
we are still waiting an LID, now with the 30 mos wait we are trying to weigh through our options. With having to wait till the youngest child in the home is 12 months, technically we could get pregnant and get through the first 12 months before receiving the LID – does anyone know if that is allowed without stopping the process?
April 18th, 2007 at 12:23 pm
With an LID of 2/10/07, it looks like DH and I have some serious decisions to make. We really wanted daughter #2 to come from China, but we just cannot possibly wait three years. If we leave the China program, we’ll switch to domestic, biracial adoption. We’ll lose thousands of dollars, but we just cannot wait three years for our second child.
I was really hoping it wouldn’t come to this…
April 18th, 2007 at 12:25 pm
dmp: I am so sorry for what you went through with your domestic adoption. It’s so risky. We got lucky. I’m in an adoption support group, and two of our families have found Ethiopia to be a good place to adopt from right now. That could change any minute, of course. But for now, it seems a country that is not yet flooded with more applications than the system can handle.
Several of our families are paralyzed because they want desperately to adopt but every route seems to have so many roadblocks in place. I often encourage them to at least get moving on the homestudy and pick a path, but I do acknowledge that there is no path that looks anything like China did just two years ago. A path where you could really feel confident that you will eventually be a parent.
Another thought is going with a very low profile country that only does a few adoptions, like Nepal or Mongolia, or that is just getting its program going, like Panama. Very scary to say the least, but at least you wouldn’t feel like part of a stampede.
Another country I looked into was Haiti. Lots of uncertainty there with the unstable government, but I felt like adoption was truly without any question in the best interest of the kids there. And they were well cared for and loved at the orphanages.
Best,
Patti
April 18th, 2007 at 1:09 pm
We have an LID of 11/18/05 and the wait is killing us. I can’t even begin to imagine the idea of a three year wait. My heart goes out to all of you with a more recent log-in date. Our IA agency has nothing but positive things to say about the Ethiopia and Nepal programs, although they are relatively new to our agency. My hubby and I considered making the switch to the Ethiopia last fall when the wait time for China was just beginning to feel unbearable because there were families within our agency that began the adoption process for Ethiopia AFTER we were DTC to China and are already home with their children. Talk about frustrating! Of course since we are so far along in the process, we were told we would have to re-submit all of our paperwork again with no transfer of fees. We are sticking it out with China. However, I know we will not pursue our second child through China. I don’t think we will make the cut for the new rules and we can afford to wait three years between children due to my hubby’s age. Ah, isn’t life a challenge?! :) Hang in there everyone!!
Kathi
LID 11/18/05
April 18th, 2007 at 1:30 pm
I just checked my agency’s website and it still reads “12-13 months” for a referral! If it wasn’t for Rumor Queen, I’d be thinking that I’m halfway there instead of having another possible 2.5 years ahead of me. I’d rather have the truth than be greatly disappointed. Thank you RQ & my RQ community!
April 18th, 2007 at 1:39 pm
I just talked to my agency, they told me if I want to switch countries then I have to totally get out of the China program and switch. We are on the waiting childrens list for China and are #45 in line to be called. We are told by our agency that even they are receiving less and less children for the waiting list. They used to get 30 to 40 children every 3 months now it is down to 15 to 20. We were also told luckily we requested a child 1 to 3 years old, everybody else normally ask for newborn to 2 years old so that is a plus for us.
Lastly if anybody knows info about another country please share. I wrote earlier about Russia and somebody responded to do my homework, I did my homework but heck I can’t research everything so a little info from somebody else is great. Nobody here knows everything.
Everybody on this website looks to the past to see what China has done, I suggest we look to the future in the fact that China is a new economic world power that is getting richer and richer. They can afford now to keep their babies. If you are looking at another country I would serious look at where is this country going to be in 2 or 3 years. For now though we are sticking with China and hope our patience with the waiting childrens list pays off.
Good luck to everybody.
April 18th, 2007 at 1:56 pm
I have my own referral tracker going and if 16 days are referred each month from here on in, we are looking at just under three years…what are the chances of 16 days each month??? We are with a China only agency and to switch would cost more than we could handle. When we began just six months ago the wait was said to be only 18 months…what I wouldn’t give for 18 months. In just six months time, the outlook has doubled. I would be okay with this if I truely believed there were less children in orphanages, but I don’t. I am just hoping for a miracle and less than three years wait!
April 18th, 2007 at 1:57 pm
We have a LID of 11/22/05. Are you saying it could be 30 months for families starting now, or everyone in the queue?
April 18th, 2007 at 2:00 pm
Our homestudy agency just started a program with Peru. They are very excited as there are many children in orphanages and few adoptive families at this time. You may want to research this option. If it helps, this agency is based out of Alabama.
April 18th, 2007 at 2:36 pm
When I started looking into adoption, I wanted to go with one of the smaller programs like Nepal. I was just drawn to that country for some reason. We chose China, though, because of the so-called predictability (HA!) and the opportunity for friendships within our large China adoption community. It’s hard not to keep thinking “What would have happened if …” about Nepal, but nothing productive comes from that. I applaud agencies that allow families the flexibility to change countries if the circumstances wildly change as they have in China.
Patti
3/21/06
P.S. I tried to post this in the forum, but couldn’t figure out the registration procedure. I wrote a little story about RQ for a site I work for. Here’s the link:
http://www.divinecaroline.com/article/22095/28692
April 18th, 2007 at 2:41 pm
Our agency finally updated their site to say that the timeframe (from paperwork to referral) is 2 – 2 1/2 years. Ok, still not all that accurate, but it’s a step forward! DH is telling me to “let go” and re-visit the wait time on our one year LID anniversary (which isn’t until 3/5/08)!! Hopefully alot of you will have had your babies home by then!
April 18th, 2007 at 2:55 pm
NO!!!!!!!!!!!!! Is this for real???? Oh PLEASE let this be a really bad rumor!!!
His,
Mrs. U
LID 9-12-05
Referral 1-4-07
“Gotcha Day” 2-25-07 for Elizabeth
http://www.makingahouseahome.blogspot.com
April 18th, 2007 at 3:10 pm
Panda2004,
We are looking into other countries to adopt from while waiting from China. One of my criteria for even speaking to an agency is what they have posted about China wait times. You wouldn’t believe how many agencies still say a year’s wait (or under!). As soon as I see that, I scratch them off my list. Either they lie to their clients or they can’t keep their website updated. Both are things I won’t tolerate. Your post just made me laugh that you have one of those agencies.
By the way, we did check into Peru and it looks good but you have to be in-country for 4 weeks. Too long for us!
April 18th, 2007 at 3:15 pm
Was wondering if anyone felt that China being the host for the 2008 Beijing Olympics would cause a slow down in travel at this time for example the 2 weeks before and after. I thought possibly due to prices of hotels and airfare at this time will keep agencies from scheduling consulate appointments, etc. We are LID 4-24-06 and with waits extending we could be dealing with this time period… Just wondering.
April 18th, 2007 at 3:38 pm
Can I just put a plug in here for the Waiting Child program. I have been home with my daughter now for a month. She is a SN child. Her special need was listed as ptosis (droopy eyelids). It turns out that it is a bit more than that (a whole eye syndrome) that will require surgery now on her upper and lower lids and a follow-up on the upper lids in about 4 years. She is also very, very small (at 20 months she is the size of a 9 month old). However, she is a very healthy baby. She is also smart, and beautiful, and sweet, and – well, I could go on and on. I saw her on a waiting child list in July of 2006. My letter of intent went over 7/28 and I was LID 10/22. Even with the changes made to the SN process at the first of the year, I still managed to get a TA 1/31/07 and I met my daughter 3/4 (travel held up due to CNY). She turned 19 months old the day I met her. From the first time I saw her face until the first time I held her was almost 8 months to the day. A lot of people hear “special needs†and think the worst. I can assure you, a lot these kids have very manageable needs. Even now before her surgery, most people look at my child and think she is tired. After the surgery, they will look at her and think, “Wow, that kid is gorgeous!’
Donna
April 18th, 2007 at 3:51 pm
wackosuzanne-
The agency I referred to above is expecting a wait of 18-24 months for families with LIDs Oct 05- Feb 06; and then longer for those logged-in in March 06 and later. I don’t know how they decided on that particular cut-off. But they are also careful to state that these are estimates only- and these estimates were made in a couple of months ago, before the latest referral batch of 2 days worth of LIDs.
On another Canadian chat group, someone who is not yet DTC was told by her (different) agency just today that she should prepare for a 2.5- 3 year wait before receiving a referral. They also told her that the China program will eventually close, but probably not for several years after she gets a referral (if she stays with China).
So, it seems that the Canadian agencies are really trying to be realistic and honest with their clients. Obviously, not news that everyone wants to hear, but I think its much better than having an agency mislead their clients. It’s just awful that there are agencies who are doing that.
April 18th, 2007 at 3:59 pm
I think the WCP is great, too, Donna! Our son is in Jiangsu and we are adopting him through the WCP. But, while I really think all families should think about it, it is definitely not for everyone. Referral times will be faster, but unless there is the absolute committment there to fully embrace the child and his or her medical condition, then I think families wanting a quicker referral should go to a different country.
April 18th, 2007 at 4:06 pm
I apologize if this post comes out twice- I think I lost the previous one.
wackosuzanne- the Canadian agency that has told clients logged in after March 06 to expect a wait of at least 24 months has also told clients logged-in from Oct 05-Feb 06 to expect a wait between 18-24 months. But they are also stating these are estimates (that were made, btw, before the latest referral batch of 2 days worth of LIDs).
On another Canadian chat group, a woman who is not yet DTC was told today by her (different) agency to expect to wait between 2.5- 3 years for a referral. The agency also said that the China IA program will eventually close, but believed it would be after this family gets a referral (in 3 years, if they stay with China).
So, the Canadian agencies are being very straight-forward with clients. They’re not giving out good news, but at least they are being honest. I’m really bothered by other agencies who are not doing the same.
April 18th, 2007 at 5:09 pm
Yikes! Does the 30 month wait begin for people who just recently received LID or for those who have already waited a year? From what point do we begin to count out 30 months? I thought I was looking at another year…now another year and 1/2….could I really be waiting another full two years??
April 18th, 2007 at 5:31 pm
bloominchina,
I have been logged in for 13 months and I’m anticipating my wait will be a total of about 24 months (as long as the CCAA doesn’t do anymore 2 day batches).
April 18th, 2007 at 5:36 pm
I have a positive note: 2007 is the year of the pig. 07 represents fortune and very good luck. I read an article not too long ago that the amount of babies being born in china will almost triple and the hospitals and orphanages will be overflowing with beautiful babies of mothers that want their child born in this lunar year. I’m hoping for all you waiting families that 07 might actually speed up the wait and bring us all good fortune.
LID 10/14/05
Waiting on TA
April 18th, 2007 at 5:49 pm
waiting4maya: I am sure you meant your remark kindly, but I don’t think most families are sitting around hoping that Chinese moms get pregnant and then abandon their babies just so we can have a child to raise. I think most of us thought there was a need in China that we could help with.
April 18th, 2007 at 5:52 pm
Is there any real chance that adoptions could stop all together in China, I talked to a man today who talked to a man who has adopted 2 kids from China. He told him that they were thinking about closing adoptions. Now I can’t believe this could be possible
April 18th, 2007 at 6:25 pm
If the wait continues to increase and it really looks like it will do just that a lot of people will probably turn away from the China program and look to other countries. I really wish I knew more about just how many children there are in orphanages in China. Does anyone know a site where I can research that? One thing is for sure each month a few more little ones are placed with families who will love them forever.
Waiting Patiently
Becky
LID 12-09-05
http://www.chinahopejournal.blogspot.com/
April 18th, 2007 at 6:28 pm
Our China-only agency said it was a “possibility” – they reiterated that they were not stating this as fact.
It is unbelievable and I simply have no words.
April 18th, 2007 at 6:32 pm
mom222b,
I was confused by your comment. Did you agency say that there was a “possibility” of a 30 month wait or were you responding to tryingtobepatients comment that China might close adoptions?
April 18th, 2007 at 6:40 pm
LONG TIME READER FIRST TIME POSTER. I HAVE BEEN LOOKING INTO INDIA ADOPTION. I RECEIVED AN EMAIL FROM ONE OF MY GROUPS CONSISTING OF AN ARTICLE PRINTED A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO ABOUT ADOPTION IN INDIA. THE ORPHANAGES ARE OVERCROWDED WITH BABY GIRLS AND CAN NOT TAKE CARE OF THEM. THE GOVERNMENT HAS STATED THAT THE INTERNATIONAL ADOPTION PROCESS ON THEIR END ( ONE YEAR I BELIEVE) AND THEY ARE STARTING SOME MAJOR STREAM LINING TO GET ADOPTIONS COMPLETE IN LESS THAN 45 DAYS. WOW! THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE INFORMATION ON ADOPTION FROM INDIA (AT LEAST COMPARED TO CHINA). I DO KNOW THAT TRAVEL TIME IS COMPARABLE TO CHINA AND COST AS WELL. INFANTS CAN BE ADOPTED OUT.
April 18th, 2007 at 6:41 pm
Well,
I just got through reading the book “The Secret”. Apparently, by giving so much attention to the wait increasing we are all making the wait increase. What do ya’ll think about that? Has anyone else read the book. It says it is good to be informed but not to be inundated with information especially information that was not good. I think I may only check the website at the end of each month to see about cut-off dates versus everyday (several times a day). It might actually be healthier for me in the longrun.
April 18th, 2007 at 7:45 pm
what is the rule with China adoption…. If I decided to pursue another adoption simutaneously and received the referrel for the baby before my baby from China would I jepordize the China adoption? I thought China had a rule that one must have 12 months between children.
Thanks
April 18th, 2007 at 7:46 pm
testing
April 18th, 2007 at 7:52 pm
I would hope that China would stop accepting dossiers before they would close the program.
I do believe that China knows what they are doing and that they wouldn’t waste resources or foster ill will by continuing to log in parents with the intention of never matching them.
April 18th, 2007 at 7:53 pm
It is the year of the Pig, but I cannot believe Chinese women would want to conceive this year, to have a “lucky” child and then give it up for adoption. If anything, this may be the year we see fewer babies yet available for international adoption. The pregnant single lady may consider keeping her child, since he/she will be a “lucky” child, born in the year of the Pig. I think the Year of the Pig will be nothing good for us parents wanting to adopt, BUT it will be good for the babies to stay with their birth mothers/country.
Laura
LID 05/15/06
April 18th, 2007 at 8:03 pm
is this posting?
April 18th, 2007 at 8:08 pm
Our agency is very conservative with information but stated today they are not expecting improvement in the wait this year. They are optimistic about another batch this month before the holiday. They have been told recently that there is an effort to increase the number of orphanages participatingin IA.
April 18th, 2007 at 8:34 pm
Our dd was placed in our arms one year ago! We wanted to start the process for a mei mei for her from China. But I am almost 100% positive that we are going to switch to domestic. I am 43 and dh is 47. We don’t want to wait 3 years for a referral. Should the wait decreas, I suppose we would consider applying to China then. We are beyond sad that all this is happening in China. We can only hope that it really means less children are being abandoned. But like a pp said, we highly doubt that!
Donna
April 18th, 2007 at 8:46 pm
I don’t think that this news truly came as a surprise. It has been a topic of speculation on the forum for a while. But truly, how can China know how many referrals they will issue when they don’t know how many babies are available in the orphanages? Opening up more orphanages for IA would help them match more children, but with the large increase of prospective parents in 2005, 2006 and even ealry 2007, the wait may not stabilize for a long time.
April 18th, 2007 at 9:27 pm
This is sad but realistic none the less. I just feel ill…. I want to be a mother more than anything. We are already 13 months into our wait but seeing a referral this year does not seem likely. I feel like crawling into a dark hole, hybernating and coming out once we have our referral. When will we see the light at the end of this loooooonnnng tunnel???:(
April 18th, 2007 at 10:27 pm
banjobean,
watch out for the light at the end of that tunnel. It is often a train about to run you over with a longer wait.
LID 12-5-05
April 19th, 2007 at 5:51 am
I would like to Thank you again RQ for providing us with such a wonderful site to share information. I honestly believe without this site I would still believe I am going to China this summer. This site has kept me realistic about the situation in China with the backlog of dossiers that are not going to just disappear. All my positive thoughts can not change that.
LID 7/06
April 19th, 2007 at 6:29 am
Although the possiblity of a three year wait is nearly tramatic. My husband and I are prepared for the wait, (well sorta) but the idea of China adoptions totally closing, that is bothering me. Surely they would stop taking dossiers and surely they would finish up placing babies with the families that are logged in. Obiviously, this is our first adoption, we had hoped to do this twice but, now, it isn’t looking very positive. Does anyone know what happens when a country shuts down adoption and what is the possiblity that this is going to happen????
J.
April 19th, 2007 at 7:43 am
There have typically been two reasons countries have closed. The first case is where concerns arise with respect to how the children are entering the system (e.g. being stolen and sold). As I understand it this was the sort of thing that caused Guatemala and Cambodia to close for many countries. In my quick research I wasn’t able to find out what happened to people all ready in the system waiting when the closure happened.
The second case is when “demand” has outstripped “supply”. This was the case in Thailand and I suppose is what is happening with Korea right now. As I understand it these countries simply stopped (or drastically reduced) taking new applications.
With respect to China, I very much doubt that the CCAA themselves would ever simply close their doors and say sorry to all those who have applied. However, I can unfortunately imagine where the Central government might make a policy decision to simply stop IA effective immediately. Do I think this will happen? No. Could it happen? Yes.
The other possibility is that there is another scandal like the Hunan one of early 2006. I think if this happened there would be a significant risk of the program closing itself or receiving countries closing the program on their own.
Just my 2 cents on the subject
April 19th, 2007 at 9:09 am
The reality is, until fall of 2006, I believe most new people were still getting misleading information.
We were paperchasing in the spring and summer of 2006. At the time, we were under the continued impression that the wait was about a year, possibly a bit over a year.
For someone willing to wait 6-9 months, a wait of 12-14 months isn’t so absurd. So people like us continued paperchasing, and continued submitting their documents.
Then, as we were submitting our paperwork in fall of 2006, we began to hear the rumors that the wait could be 2 years. Still, our ageny and many others would only say vague things like, “The wait is currently 14 months, and could fluctuate in the future.”
It was winter 2006/2007 before agencies really began telling people that the wait for new people would be around 2 years.
Thus, up till that time, I think the wait was not affecting the numbers of people logging in.
Now, once people began to realize the wait was hitting 2 years, they might not choose to pursue China adoption, and you might finally get a reduction in dossiers. But for someone who spent months putting together their dossier, and THEN they learn of the long wait– Having already invested so much time and money, I think most such people would submit their dossiers anyway.
Therefore, I don’t think you will see a reduction in dossiers logged in, until 2007 login dates.
April 19th, 2007 at 12:23 pm
I read an article in a Houston newspaper this weekend that Russia had or is about to close its doors to adoption agencies. They say its not permenant (I think) but they are going to revamp their system(not verbatim).
When my dh and I started this soooo long ago, one of the people at our agency said the wait is 6-9 months and then whispered, “but it can happen in 4-5; not long at all”……16-1/2 months later here we still wait! I also checked into switching to Vietnam, but my agency said it would be a BIG step backwards for us. We are LID 12/05/05 and are actually the next group at our agency. I didn’t really want to switch but I was so frustrated when that 2-day referral period came out!
Lauree
LID 12/05/05
April 19th, 2007 at 2:03 pm
Chinagirl07-
Your LID is Dec 05, right? (I can never remember if the day or the month comes first!)
Aquaintances of ours have a LID in early December 05 & their agency (in Canada) has told them to expect a referral between June and August.
So, if I were you, I’d hang in there for China at this point.
April 19th, 2007 at 2:06 pm
Also, to clarify- the countdown of “30 months” (or whatever) starts with your LID. So, the agencies are counting the time between LID & Referral.
April 19th, 2007 at 10:00 pm
WOW! this sure has been an education! Our log in date is 2-20-06. I guess we won’t be going to China this summer. Good thing I kept all of my receipts for the summer clothes my mother-in-law and I went crazy buying (this is our first time adopting and we may have been a little over excited) when our agency said May or June at the latest.
We have two other children and we are having the hardest time with this summer- are we safe to plan our usual August family vacation? Is there a chance things could pick up and we could be traveling during the summer or am I dreaming?
We have three groups in front of us so we are going to stick with China and we did get ourselves on the special needs list. Although after reading some of the comments it sounds like things are slowing down for waiting children too. Does anybody know- If you decide to go with a special needs child do you travel alone?? I think a part of us would miss the connections we might make with our group.
Hang in there Chinagirl07! You are so close!
April 22nd, 2007 at 8:02 pm
Luna~
I was actually responding to your original post – I think we are with the same agency. I was trying to be diplomatic and not come across as argumentative. I see that later you corrected your post.
My post was mad confusing as my son would say :)
How prophetic my anti-spam word is USCIS – I will be paying the office a visit very soon :(