I’m hearing a rumor that the cut is March 6. It’s an R2 at this point. Hopefully we’ll get some other agencies verifying it soon and we can move it up.
This entry was posted
on Thursday, February 26th, 2009 at 1:04 pm and is filed under Rumors - Next Referrals.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
Both comments and pings are currently closed.
Note from RQ: The section below is for comments from ChinaAdoptTalk.com's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that I agree with any particular comment just because I let it stand. Posts are generally only removed if they don't follow the
rules of the site. Anyone who fails to comply with the rules of the site may lose his or her posting privilege.
February 26th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
………… 4 days of movement is good…would be better if more,,but we will take… 13-4 = 9 more log in days
February 26th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
RQ I just got an e-mail back from my agency and they wrote word for word: It means that the cutoff date is 3/6/2006 so you are next
LID 3/7/06
February 26th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
….9 more log in days to go with a LID of March 17, 2006
February 26th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
Thanks for the Rumors!!!! I am so excited, I am a crazy person checking for rumors. I can’t wait to see the referral pictures.
LID 3/27/06
http://www.ourchinaangel.com
February 26th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Thanks for the rumors. Even though we seem to have missed it (which I expected) it’s good to know we’re next!
LID 3/7/06
February 26th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Given March 7 is huge in the polls this is not that surprising. Better than one day for sure. I’ll take it.
February 26th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
I have an LID of March 7, 2006. My hope would have been for them to get through March 7, but I will take the 6th because it means “I’M NEXT”. There is no doubt!! My fear was that they would only do 2 days and then that would have left me with wondering would I be next or not. This way I know for sure!!! YEA HAW!!!!
February 26th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
Glad to see some rumors finally and happy for everyone with LIDs up to 3/6/06. We have a LOOOOONG way to go, but it gives me hope to see referrals coming!
LID 10/17/07
http://amyanddevin.googlepages.com
February 26th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
I’d love to see another agency or two or three saying the same thing.
Luna
LID 3/8/06
February 26th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
Happiness for all those families going to see their babies faces soon. Such a precious time. A moment to remember the rest of your life. Congrats.
February 26th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
Really? I mean Really??? With the 4th & 5th being a Saturday and Sunday…that’s another 2-day batch!! Whatever. I’m taking a break from any additional speculation or discussions of any type of speed up. I’ll check back in again sometime in the summer.
LID 3-21-06
February 26th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
A hopeful note for all those with LIDs several weeks or months in the future. You may have already noticed but if you look at the poll results, the number of LIDs decreases significantly after March. In theory that should mean those days will go much faster than they have been.
I suggest you hang in there! After all, other than renewing your U.S. paperwork you can just let it ride. Don’t pull the plug on your own. We almost seriously considered this once because we aren’t spring chickens anymore, (although we are going on a fifty mile bike ride today, and will need a trailer soon.)
My point is for all those whose frustration is great and emotions raw, don’t give up! I’m sure glad we hung in there.
3/3/2006
February 26th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
Can….hardly….breathe….sure hope this is true as that is finally us!
http://nuggetsfromhome.blogspot.com/
February 26th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
For those in doubt if I wasn’t 100% sure I wouldn’t have posted it I E-mailed our agency to confirm twice.
February 26th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
There is something comforting to know that we are next! I feel like I can finally attended to the dishes and laundry and not be obsessed with the cut off and when.
I realize that the rumors are at a R2…. but feel at peace with this. Congrats to the March 3-6 LIDers! Can’t wait to see some babies!
zsazsa
LID 3/706
February 26th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Congratulations to all the new families! What a rollercoaster ride we had this month. Looking forward to seeing all the pictures!
February 26th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
Just received an email from my agency up here in Canada. They are confirming LID till 6 March 2006. They advised there are 650 children in this batch and are expecting 850 children done in the next round. It also says in their email that there are currently 12,000 files of parents waiting to adopt. Congratulations to all who are getting their special packages soon. Hope this information is helpful.
February 26th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
RQ I just got an e-mail from my canadian agency and they wrote: the cutoff date is 3/6/2006
February 26th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
When did the new requirements kick in? May 06 or May 07? I can’t remember. I would assume that things would speed up around then too. Why is March 06 so big?
February 26th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
new requirements went into effect may 2007. I don’t think anyone knows for sure why march 2006 is so huge, but it is. The numbers, for lots of reasons I guess, get smaller after that and there has been tons of attrition.
Congrats to the families that will be receiving referrals this month and even to those who know they are next! Being next is a very nice feeling. Its happening, to you, soon!!!
susan
http://www.crowellgang.blogspot.com
lid 2/13/06, dor 9/29/08, georgiana ours forever 12/7/2008!
February 26th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Who knew 4 days would sound so good?????
LID 3/27/06(inching closer)
February 26th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
natashadiamond,
Thats very interresting, the part about how many matches this month and how many next month. Do you usually get that type of information??
ash2008,
not sure why March is so big, but possibly because back in Jan/ Feb 2006 it was taking a long time to get log in dates. Then in March 2006 they logged alot of Feb DTCs and all of the March DTC. It was like they caught up which resulted in alot of Feb and Mar being logged in March.
Waiting in Texas
3/21/2009
February 26th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
Waiting in Texas,
I have the same thoughts as you do about why March is so big. I guess great minds think alike! =)
February 26th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
Not sure if I put any faith in this & next months numbers? Especially as they also state there are 12,000 waiting files . Why would CCA suddenly leak info on numbers when it’s never happened before? Also, the waiting files are likely to be more like 20-30,000 ( if not more by now)as the backlog grows.
The sooner March 06′s huge month is referred the better we will be able to guesstimate possible wait times for those April-06 – May 07.
February 26th, 2009 at 4:37 pm
It is interesting that an agency actually has information about how many matches this month(650 babies) and how many will be next month (850 babies) and how many families are still waiting (12,000). Does anyone belong to an agency that also gives this kind of information?? This is the kind of information that families need and this information is available…it just means that China has to share this with all agencies and agencies should be able to share this with their families waiting. Families should at least also get how many waiting families are logged in this year. This will help us families at least track everything a little better…Don’t you think?
February 26th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
Wait a minute. In response to Natashadiamond’s agency’s report, this doesn’t make sense to me. What am I adding up wrong? If there are only 12,000 applicants still waiting, and they are referring OVER 500 babies per month, it would only take another 2 years for everyone to get their babies, RIGHT? Have I been out on Maternity Leave for too long, or do these numbers totally not add up? Are they saying that even Feb 2009 families only have 2 more years to wait?
February 26th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
My agency – In Canada – just sent us a communication saying CCAA matched 650 children in this batch (cut off dat March 6th) and are expecting to match 850 in the next one. They also specify they are currently 12 000 files and they expect to match 6 500 of these before the end of the year.
February 26th, 2009 at 5:10 pm
12,000 seems VERY low to me.
February 26th, 2009 at 5:17 pm
maybe they meant from Canada??
February 26th, 2009 at 5:17 pm
It’s possible that Natashadiamond’s agency is only quoting the numbers for his/her country?
February 26th, 2009 at 5:28 pm
Wow – could it be that we will actually be in THIS batch???? After 41 months, it really doesn’t seem real, but believe me, WE’LL TAKE IT!!!!! :-) We really thought we would be in next month’s batch, so this would be an awesome surprise! Waiting to hear more before I get REALLY excited……too late – I already AM really excited! :-)
February 26th, 2009 at 5:29 pm
Oh yeah, in all my excitement I forgot to post that our LID is 3/6/06.
February 26th, 2009 at 5:33 pm
I heard a recent report from the CCAA that there are currently 4,000 dossiers logged in JUST for April 2007. So I find the 12,000 total hard to believe also. But we also know there has been a LOT of people dropping out, going the SN route, and/or adopting from other countries…and not nearly as many dossiers submitted since May 2007. So hard to know what to believe…either way – I plan to hang in for as long as it takes!
February 26th, 2009 at 5:37 pm
I don’t think those #’s are for Canada only…I would like to think so but I would find it hard to believe that there were 650 families across Canada that received referrals.
February 26th, 2009 at 5:39 pm
No it is not possible those numbers could only be for Canada, they are way too high for that.
February 26th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
Maybe there are now only 12000 files? Is it possibel that there has been so much attrition and that becasue of the wait many fewer files have been sent in the years following 2005/2006? Not to mention the change in requirements putting a lot of people off? Back in March 2006 I remember it being a really peak time because back then the wait was still relatively short so EVERYONE was applying to China. Here in Sydney there was a miraculous speed up and my file as a single got to China well before I expected. It meant I scraped in before the turning 50 cut off.
If what they are saying is true it is great news for everyone waiting. I just feel very sad for those who have lost hope and pulled out.
Meimeiandme
LID 23rd March 06
February 26th, 2009 at 5:52 pm
So happy for those with 3rd to 6th LID’s.
Congratulations
Best,
bgw
LID 7th March 06 – Next as expected. And once out of the way there will be a great relief.
February 26th, 2009 at 5:55 pm
If they referred 750 children per month on average, that’s 9,000 NSN children in a year and last year we know was maybe a third of that number (6,000 SN AND NSN)!!
If they referred 650 families this month and are planning on referring 850 next month (which we all know will likely be only one day 3/7) then that means that there are close to 1,500 families in only six days in March??!
We know March is large, but it can’t possibly be that large.
As someone said, April 2007 was thought to have 4,000 families. We know that’s the largest ever. So how many could March have started out with? 3,500? with attrition, that’s only 2,000 families and the 3,500 number is way too high.
Way-back-when most people were saying March had 2,500 families originally; that would be 1,500 with attrition for the ENTIRE month.
Also, in the past 25-30% of RQ families voted in the polls. Which means would equal around 250 families for the month. I find it hard to believe that only 9% of March 2006 families voted in the poll.
February 26th, 2009 at 5:57 pm
one other thing. there are 35 months of LID’s from March 2006 on.
I don’t see how that could only be 12,000 families.
February 26th, 2009 at 6:00 pm
I think the 650 families this month and 850 next month IF TRUE includes SN as well.
February 26th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
I agree, I think the numbers for the next two months may be accurate, but I don’t see how there are only 12,000 total for the last 3 years worth of LID. We all know how big April 2007 is. I know people think 4 days are a big deal, but 2 of those days were weekend days with little to no LID’s. This is basically 2 days worth of LID. I highly expect that next month may be a one day batch. With a May of ’06 LID, I just feel like we are always “about” a year away from referral.
February 26th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
I would assume (and that doesn’t mean much) that she’s meaning that Canada is saying that they have 12,000 dossiers in China, or her Canandian agency does. I thought the worldwide totals were more around 30,000.
Nonetheless, she’s basically reporting quite a speed up! I would assume that if China is doing those kind of numbers for Canada they’re doing them for everyone else.
Congratulations to all who will be receiving referrals soon! So, happy it wasn’t one day.
February 26th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
Ash2008—”Why is March 2006 so big?”….I blame Oprah. I blame Oprah for alot of things. She probably reran the Lisa Ling report from China about China. My girlfriend saw that report and that inspired her to adopt.
Everytime Oprah has a discussion on ADD, bipolar, a book of the month it complete chaos; therefore I will just blame Oprah. (hee! hee!)
February 26th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
There’s no way there could only be 12,000 dossiers left, unless the agency was speaking of their own country. Still, I’m happy about 4 days even though 2 were a weekend. Psychologically it makes me feel much better to see 4 calendar days ticked off. Hopefully this pans out!
February 26th, 2009 at 6:24 pm
Has there ever been a one day batch??? I know that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Who knows, maybe they could not finish 3/7 because it is so big but they started it and will finish it and another day or two next month.
February 26th, 2009 at 6:40 pm
I think that we are not really considering just how many people have gone special needs and came home with a child already. We hung in there for a healthy referral, but we are the first group to get a healthy referral in over a year at our agency due the slowdown and people flipping to the SN program.
February 26th, 2009 at 7:00 pm
To all those March 7th-ers,
As hard is it to miss by just one day, there is such a relief just KNOWING that you are next. When I just missed it, the final month was strangely peaceful. Breathe, relax and rejoice that the child’s face will be in your hands in the next batch.
Laureen
A.K.A M2I
http://www.babysites.com/sites/laureenmary
February 26th, 2009 at 7:02 pm
WOW!!! I have been grading too any papers!
So sorry about the errors in that last post. :0
That first line should have been:
As hard as it is to miss by just one day…
: )
Laureen
February 26th, 2009 at 7:14 pm
WOW!!! even more, Mom2Isabel. I read it that way the first time. And I haven’t been grading papers :)
February 26th, 2009 at 7:19 pm
Pamplemousse, those numbers are in line with what my agency told me a couple of months ago. They said the CCAA would match approx. 2000 more babies this year compared to last year.
I hope everyone can just be a little more patient (I know,not easy) and you WILL see a change in a few months.
February 26th, 2009 at 7:26 pm
Will this be classed as Feb referrals or if they don’t arrive at agencies until Monday on…March?
I am not letting the 6th be the final cut off date just yet, until the CCAA box is updated.
February 26th, 2009 at 8:01 pm
Wow! That would be wonderful if this rumor was true. Our LID is 03/03/2006 as we have been waiting 4 years and 2 months. This is hard to believe it’s finally going to happen for us.
February 26th, 2009 at 8:03 pm
Wow. That means we’re next. I got a lot of stuff to do in the next couple months…
I’ve purposely avoided the emotional roller coaster for the last few years. I don’t think it can be avoided much longer.
3/7/06
February 26th, 2009 at 8:52 pm
The backlog is done and over. It has been since May O7 with the requirement change. The referrals have just not caught up.
In my area of NY, just 2 counties. My social worker went from doing about 6-8 home studies a month to 3 in a year. That is just one social worker. The NSN dossier submission has dropped dramatically, the impact will not be seen until a few a referral cycles after they get into May of 07 LIDs
February 26th, 2009 at 10:18 pm
Maybe they mean there are 12,000 more files left to finish 2006. Is that possible?
Perhaps I am missing something…
February 26th, 2009 at 10:19 pm
That just means it won’t pick up until the May 07 people are referred. That’s over a year’s worth of LID’s.
February 26th, 2009 at 11:25 pm
To March 6th? I’ll take it. Nine (that’s 9) more days to go.
Yah!
LID March 15th 2006
http://www.atlastmilanascominhome.blogspot.com
February 27th, 2009 at 1:43 am
Ugh, my heart is breaking for those of you right on the cusp. I was really hoping the 7th would be in.
Sending hugs!
http://faithhopeandlove-fhl.blogspot.com/
February 27th, 2009 at 5:41 am
I am quite doubtful about the 12.000 figure.
My guess is :
- 2006 : approx 15.000 dossiers still waiting to be matched
- 2007 : approx 13.000 dossiers still waiting to be matched
- 2008 + 2009 : approx 6.000
Which makes a total of 34.000 from March 2006 up to Feb 2009.
Needless to say, I would love to believe in this, but 12.000 does not make sense at all to me.
On the contrary, 12.000 REMAINING DOSSIERS LID 2006 WOULD!
Bon courage to all.
February 27th, 2009 at 6:18 am
To Mom2Isabel & Dreaming of Cassie your well wishes are gratefully received.
I can’t speak for all 7th’rs, but we are really happy that they managed to get to the 6th! I for one truly was not expecting anything this month.
Our real worry was that they were not getting to the 6th, I think that would cause my heart to be break!
Best,
BGW
February 27th, 2009 at 8:25 am
Congratulations to the people who will see their child’s face very soon!
I’ll take 4 days, even if it is a tiny batch, it’s still 4 links I can take off my countdown chain and now there are only 20 left!!!!! 20 LID’s to go – woo hoo!
Rachel
LID 3/28/06
February 27th, 2009 at 9:01 am
waiting in Texas Says:
“Who knows, maybe they could not finish 3/7 because it is so big but they started it and will finish it and another day or two next month.” How do you know the 7th is so big? Where can I look exactly to find out the prediction of the # of dossiers for certain days? We’re 3/10/06 and I’m trying to get more info. about the number of dossiers between the 6th and the 10th.
Concrats to the 3/6 families!
February 27th, 2009 at 9:02 am
waiting in Texas Says:
“Who knows, maybe they could not finish 3/7 because it is so big but they started it and will finish it and another day or two next month.” How do you know the 7th is so big? Where can I look exactly to find out the prediction of the # of dossiers for certain days? We’re 3/10/06 and I’m trying to get more info. about the number of dossiers between the 6th and the 10th.
Congrats to the 3/6 families!
February 27th, 2009 at 9:02 am
Good morning,
Just wanted to let you know that Canada adopted in 2006, 608 children from China, in 2005 it was 973 children and in 2004, 1001 children.
Congratulations for those who will see their baby for the 1st time!!
February 27th, 2009 at 9:43 am
I noticed that the person who put the comment about their agency saying there is a backlog of 12,000 is from a Canadian agency. So maybe it’s true that there is a backlog of 12,000 Canadians but I sincerely doubt the backlog for the US is 12,000. Just a thought.