Projections
The first chart (below) shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember that each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison.
This may have been a small month when you consider it was only two days, but when viewed in terms of poll numbers it wasn’t small in comparison to the batch sizes in the past year.
Next we’ll take a look at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections.
Here are my projections:
You can always find your way back to the Projections and When posts by clicking on the Analysis category in the lower right hand column.
I’ll end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.
July 23rd, 2009 at 7:56 am
Hi RQ,
I’m curious why you are projecting that the next batch will include half the number of referrals for a spring 2008 small number (Marcy 23 is at 37 in the polls). Adding March 23 to the small number would get them to 77. I would think they’d get to March 24 at least. Just wondering…
Thanks for everything you give us – everyday!
Jackie
LID 3/23/06 (we’re next!)
July 23rd, 2009 at 7:58 am
WHOO! HOOO! How long have we March 23 LID waited for this!?? I am surprised that you are projecting a 1 day batch for the Spring 2008 small? I would have thought it would include 24th as well. Looking ahead I have everything crossed that we have more batches closer to the Winter 08 Horrid because that would obviously be awesome (as my daughter says) for those waiting behind after this incredibly loooong MARCH.
July 23rd, 2009 at 8:14 am
I was wondering the same thing, especially with part of 3/23 already matched last month.
I can pretty much think that Sept is our month!
LID 3/27/06
Thanks RQ- this site is a lifesaver!!
July 23rd, 2009 at 8:49 am
Seeing this chart with my LID tucked up in the upper left corner took my breath away!! Cannot imagine what it will be like to see my sweet daughter’s face next month!! So hoping that it’s a more than 1 day batch…that would be heart breaking for so many!!
For those who may be seeing their LID on this chart for the very first time….I remember the excitement!! Enjoy it…your turn will come too!
Congrats to all those who recently saw their baby’s face for the very first time!! So many young ones this time…yay!!
Catherine
LID 03/23/06
July 23rd, 2009 at 8:59 am
37+40=77
And 77 is higher than the number used for the first column.
Please, don’t shoot the messenger. I don’t want them to do one day, but if I didn’t point out the possibility then I’d be lying to you.
July 23rd, 2009 at 9:18 am
I know you have the 23rd as the spring small column, but I think it’s more than reasonable to think they will get through the 24th.
And SanRN, yes, I believe September is our month!!! Finally, I feel confidant to say we are next next!!!
July 23rd, 2009 at 9:26 am
Based on how things have been looking the past 1.5 years, it would certainly be a speedup to see winter 2008 horrid.
Best case w/o a speedup seems to be between spring 2008 and winter 2008 horrid.
COME ON SPEEDUP!!! IMO if we’re going to see it it would be next month. I know a lot of people believe IF there is a speedup it might not be until the fall or late fall, but i think if it’s going to happen it will start happening next month….if it doesn’t i’m going to let that possiblity go.
July 23rd, 2009 at 10:13 am
RQ – I think perhaps the 3/23 is ok for the Spring 2008 level prediction, but that this months referrals’ X in the previous table should not be in that column since they did 101 based on the poll. This may be what is causing confusion because if 101 is considered Spring 2008 then 77 should logically fall in that category too.
July 23rd, 2009 at 10:54 am
zhaouner’s point about the 77 versus 101 is what I am confused about too, especially since in last month’s projections you had the 24th in the spring 08 category (which was based on a projection that they’d get to the 22nd this month, which they did).
If your prediction is the 23 it’s the 23rd, that fine. I’m just trying to understand how you determined that.
July 23rd, 2009 at 11:05 am
Thank you for the data. I am not thinking that there will be any speed up. I think we will continue to plod along as such. I was wondering… does anyone have any data on the number of the SN adoptions recently? Now that there are shared lists- do you think the process has ironed out the creases and it is flowing better? Are more children being adopted because of the lists? Just curious as to what is happening in the SN program and if there has been any changes in terms of more children being adopted.
5/06
July 23rd, 2009 at 11:07 am
I’m kind of covered up at work and can’t go into specifics, but projections for the referrals just received were based on the fact that the month before had been so small (numbers wise) and that they had matched more, but not mailed them yet. This month they did a large-ish number and the odds are they haven’t matched very far (if any at all) into the next day.
July 23rd, 2009 at 11:40 am
Hi there…. Is anyone else LID 4/21/06? Does any one want to offer an opinion on when? The way I read the chart and looking at all the postings it may still be next year for us.
Thanks Laura
July 23rd, 2009 at 12:07 pm
I’m super happy to see that RQ shows a 7 day batch even in the “small” column once we get into April ‘06, much less two week batches in the “horrid” column. Wouldn’t that be wonderful! Larger # of days per batch are around the corner!
July 23rd, 2009 at 12:38 pm
Thanks RQ for all you do. I am happy just to be in the “projection” area. I am keeping my fingers crossed for a referral in August but a part of me thinks it might be more like September. I am going to keep repeating BIG BATCH, BIG BATCH, and BIG BATCH. Thanks again, life without your site would be sooooooooooooooooooo long.
LID 3/27/09
http://www.ourchinaangel.com
LID 3/27/09
http://www.ourchinaangel.com
July 23rd, 2009 at 1:20 pm
So, is it safe to say we are FINALLY next?!
LID 3/23/06
July 23rd, 2009 at 3:21 pm
I was wondering if there was to be a speed up in the autumn due to increased nursery fees would there have been an increase in finding ads placed in the last few months?
July 23rd, 2009 at 3:27 pm
Hi laura42106,
Our LID is April 20, 2006. We think we may receive a referral in February or March 2010. Best wishes!
July 23rd, 2009 at 5:42 pm
I don’t know, p12, maybe now they’ll start doing fractions of days a month?
Seriously, though, it looks like you’ll have no more reason to booooooo from now on (unless you’re at a ball game or something).
Best wishes,
Ruth
3/24/06
July 23rd, 2009 at 6:48 pm
p12 you’re next?!!? That’s great! Though I will miss the boooooooo comments. :)
July 23rd, 2009 at 7:01 pm
Question for RQ,
Are we using the new polls yet?
Thanks-
July 24th, 2009 at 7:21 pm
don’t worry, I’m going to boo if I don’t get a referral next month, and HOPEFULLY pass the baton in Sept. Quest began in ‘97. This site IS a lifesaver. LID 3/26/06 Next?