Projections
The first chart (below) shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember that each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison.
Next we’ll take a look at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections.
Here are my projections:
You can always find your way back to the Projections and When posts by clicking on the Analysis category in the lower right hand column.
I’ll end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.
August 25th, 2009 at 10:47 am
RQ – Should the first row say September? Not that I wouldn’t LOVE to be in the Spring 08 small group for October (LID 4/5/06) but I think it should be November! Thanks for all you do!
August 25th, 2009 at 10:55 am
Thanks DCmomtobe – I fixed it.
August 25th, 2009 at 10:57 am
Whoever thought I would be cheering “come on horrid case!” Thanks RQ…always appreciate your charts, time and effort.
August 25th, 2009 at 11:05 am
I’m *really* happy if these projections come true. My fear was that they wouldn’t get that far into April this year. Granted, my LID is in September, but any forward movement is a GOOD thing.
August 25th, 2009 at 11:22 am
Seeing our LID date in September makes me cry. I have been on the fence if not we would be in for September and have been waiting to see what RQ was projecting. I know it could fall on the short side of the 28th but I am feeling good that we will be in. Thank you RQ for this post. I really needed it today!
August 25th, 2009 at 11:26 am
RQ – I have a question if you don’t mind.
I was looking over your PJ’s for the past couple of months and the spring 2008 column has been consistent.
for this october referrals (two months from now) for example, your pj’s in may were through 4/4, in june through 4/3, july though 3/31 and now 4/3 again in august. so four months later and the pj’s within a day.
the next column however, the horid one – varies a great deal. for october referrals for this column in may you pj’d through 5/15, and now it’s 4/12.
i was wondering why?
thanks!
August 25th, 2009 at 11:28 am
RQ- Question, not because I doubt you, but because I am trying to understand your mind…Why does this month qualify for higher than Spring 2008 small when it appears that the poll numbers are down from last month? Is it the the expedited referrals?
August 25th, 2009 at 11:32 am
I can’t believe we are finally NEXT! I actually start to shiver when I think about it!!!
August 25th, 2009 at 11:41 am
it’s been almost a year and a half since we’ve seen the horrid column!
August 25th, 2009 at 11:50 am
RQ – I’m wondering if you have any ideas about this batch of referrals please. I have a 24 March 06 LID but haven’t got a referral. I know of one other person in my situation here in the UK, and there well be others.
Many adopters with 23 and 24 March LID have their referrals now.
I’m wondering if you’ve heard anything about a split date, or if it’s possible that another package is on the way….
Any light you could shed would be great.
thanks a lot
Deanna
August 25th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
Deanna – what is you agency saying?
August 25th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
Hi
There isn’t an agency as such here in the UK. All overseas adoptions are handled by the government. There is a small team dedicated to overseas adoptions. I’ve emailed and phoned them, but have had no reply. I assume they don’t have any information. They have processed 5 UK referrals in this batch, as far as I know.
D
August 25th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
cassiesmom –
The projections last month were for March 23rd in the first column and March 28th in the second column…. since the CCAA made it to the 24th, that’s between the two columns, which is what I noted.
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Noendinsight – I have no idea what you are talking about. Can you ask in another way? I’ve looked back and can’t make any sense of what you are saying. Sorry.
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deannab – I’m sorry, but I haven’t heard anything. If you can’t get anything out of your government, perhaps BLAS can help? If you haven’t already dealt with them, perhaps someone else who doesn’t have a referral is in contact with them?
August 25th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
RQ- I was wondering if you had any thoughts on the timing of referrals within the month and the effect that may have on the October referrals………this is what I am thinking…….
The referrals have essentially changed from the end/beginning of the month to about the 3rd week of the month. There is a holiday during the first week of October which has sometimes affects the sending out of referrals…..but now if the referrals are generally sent out about the 3rd week of the month….wouldn’t the October holiday affect the referrals for this coming October. I am thinking….(and this will be hard on waiting parents)…….that the referrals after September could possibly slip by a couple of weeks which would put them back into the beginning of November. If this does happen, this slip added to the one last May would result in a potential of only receiving 11 referral batches this calendar year. (I am considering the Dec 29, 2008 referrals as the Jan 09 referals)
Also, the referrals for January 2006 and February 2006 LIDs have ended on the last day of the month…….I am curious to see if they do the same and make March 31 a cutoff date.
You have such good insights……I am just wondering what you think……..
August 25th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
Hi RQ
thanks for this. BLAS emailed me yesterday morning congratulating me on my referral, and giving me their fax number so that I can send the documents for translation when I receive them. So as far as BLAS is concerned, they think I’m in. It looks like BLAS assume all LIDs up to and including 24 March are included. I’d like to think that too but so far for me (single adopter) and another couple that I know about, it’s been a deafening silence. Don’t know what to make of it.
Deanna
August 25th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
I’ll put my When post out tomorrow, and I’ll talk about timing then.
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Deanna, it sounds like maybe you need to get both your govt and BLAS checking into it for you.
August 25th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
Thanks…..I will watch for your post tomorrow.
August 25th, 2009 at 1:17 pm
Thanks RQ. Will do that. I really appreciate your work and your website, by the way. My main source of information.
thank you so much
D
August 25th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
sorry RQ – let’s see if i can explain it this way.
i was comparing how the projections have changed over the past couple of months.
using this october’s referrals as an example.
on may 23rd you projected the october “spr 2008 small” batch to go through april 4th.
today’s post has October “spg 2008 small” going through april 3rd.
so, it’s only a difference of a day.
but, this isn’t true of the “winter ‘08 (horrid)” column.
on may 23rd you had the october projection though May 15th, but today’s post has it going through April 12th. a difference of 33 days.
it seems like as time goes on the “spr 2008 small” column is pretty steady while the “winter ’08 (horrid)” column fluctuates a lot of days.
hopefully i’m making sense!
August 25th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
do you think the CCAA reads the predictions?
August 25th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Noendinsight – each column going up will fluctuate more and more, because the numbers used for those projections are larger.
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Mina – in the past the consensus has been that the CCAA does not bother reading here, but that the agencies like to run and “tattle” to the CCAA when something is posted here that they don’t think should have been… kind of the equivalent of “you didn’t tell us this, but you told someone and now it’s on the internet, and we didn’t know about it and that makes us look bad to our clients, and we’re not happy about that”. For the most part that seems to have stopped, but that was the main reason for plugging ‘the leaky faucet’ a few years ago.
August 25th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
Thanks, RQ, as we would be so lost without you. Call me a crazy optimist but I like to think that the number of families matched each month gives us much more hope than the days included in the referral. I know we are still a ways off, but with a 06-2006 LID, it feels like 9-10 months remaining according to the 05-2009 poll. Looks like the CCAA is matching anywhere from 75-100 families each month. Hang in there everyone! Any other June LID’s out there?
LID 06-20-06
August 25th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
I’m prepared for them to only get through 3/28 next batch. 3/29 looks too big to be included next round but after that I really think we’ll see some progress….hopefully!
August 25th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
Finally, we are NEXT. I’ve waited 40 glorious months to be able to say that. To be honest, it’s not really sunk in yet. I mean, after waiting all this time, our adoption has been this think that was always “someday” but never close enough to fully grasp the hugeness of… but now, knowing we are next, it’s enough to drive me into overdrive. Suddenly, I feel so unprepared….
August 25th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Okay… so am I the only one who read:
“Noendinsight Says:
August 25th, 2009 at 11:26 am
RQ – I have a question if you don’t mind.
I was looking over your PJ’s for the past couple of months…”
and thought she was talking about RQ’s pajamas??
I was cracking up envisioning a cute flannel number covered in her majesty’s crowns! : )
M2I
http://www.MyChineseShamrock.blogspot.com
August 25th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
miasmama:
we are LID June 15 06 and I for one am starting to get a little nervous. I have thought for about the past yr now that we were looking at traveling in the summer of 2010, and RQ’s projections work for that – that would mean a referral somewhere between Spring 2008 Small & Winter 2008 (Horrid). But if CCAA keeps up this pattern of only 2 days per mo, then we are looking at waiting another 3-4 yrs, not just another yr or so. We are definitely not spring chickens anymore & also would prefer that there not be such a huge gap between the kids – our JieJie is going on 6. BUt what can you do but hope & pray……
hang in there!
August 25th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
miasmama and cangirl — c’mon over to the June ‘06 LID Room! And, join the rest of us Juners agonizing over the wait and predicting how unprepared we’ll be. We just started a LID List and need your input.
August 25th, 2009 at 5:19 pm
I’m finally NEXT!!!!!!!!!!!!! I can’t believe it. Thank you so much for all you do, RQ. We love you. You have been so helpful with all your information and the cameraderie (sp?) of this community that you have made. THANK YOU!!!!
<3 <3 <3
August 25th, 2009 at 5:20 pm
There is no pattern of 2 day batches. There is March which pretty much everyone agrees is the largest month in the history of China adoptions so far.
You can’t take the snapshot of March and apply it broadly.
The “average” days referred for over 2 years has 5 days.
August 25th, 2009 at 5:40 pm
Miasmama,
We are June 10, 2006. I don’t know what we would do without this site. Our agency is good but they don’t have any information. The only good stuff is here.
Perhaps the process will move along quicker now.
Susan & Joe
LID 06-10-06
August 25th, 2009 at 8:34 pm
Thanks RQ for all you do. I don’t know how you find the time. I am so happy not to see the 27th listed in any of the columns! I take it that means we are in for sure next month. I can hardly believe it!!!!! I don’t really want to wish our lives away but I can not wait until next month. Thank you again for all you do, it really does help the wait feel a little better.
LID 3/27/06
http://www.ourchinaangel.com
August 26th, 2009 at 8:22 am
We are LID 5/30/06…..so have been fully prepared to wait another 1.5 to 2 years. Really, after 39 months, that seems like the home stretch.
But now seeing RQ’s predictions, well, it looks like it could be sooner than that.
I had a bit of a HOLY **** moment.
We aren’t prepared!!!!!!
We’ve spent the past 40 months moaning and b******* about the wait, and now that it could conceivably be staring us in the face, I for one am panicking a bit.
We still have a good bit of money to save. I know, I know, we’ve had 40 months to do it, but it always seemed so far away. So now the scramble is on.
Does this sort of panic bit happen to everyone???
It’s like: “what the heck have you been doing all this time?”
HELP and reassurance from our RQ family would be appreciated.
Are we (I) really panicking for no reason?
Cindy
LID 5/30/06…perhaps closer than we think…YIKES!
August 26th, 2009 at 9:31 am
I was looking at the projections it said.
Spr wntr smr 2006 2006
2008 2008 2008 mid good
small horrid bad
I’m sorry I just do not understand that.
I do not post very often I do not want to seem stupid.
I understand the left hand column where is says
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Our LID is 5/16/2006
August 26th, 2009 at 10:51 am
waiting for jessica – look at the chart above the one you are looking at and it shows historically what they have done.
those titles refer to the number of referrals that have been sent in the past. for the past six months they have done the Spr 2008 small column or in between that and the next column (horrid).
it’s been 19 months since they’ve done the Spring 07 bad column, so that’s unlikely.
most people look at the first column as a “not-so-good” case (Spr 2008 Small) and the second column as a “very-good-please-happen” case (Wntr ‘08 horrid) and anticipate referrals will fall somewhere in-between.
personally i ignore the last three columns (Smr ’07, 2006 Mid Case and 2006 Good Case) because it’s been almost two years since the C2A2 has done that many referrals. it’s still good to see them because it helps illustrate the slow down and allows us to dream things will get better.
i’m not doing a great job of explaining it and i’m sure someone else can do a better job!!!
August 27th, 2009 at 6:52 am
Thanks Noendinsight. Sometimes I have trouble with charts.
August 27th, 2009 at 7:06 pm
Macy girl I have the same LID. Do you think we will get matched in 9 months? The China Forecastor says December of 2010. : (