Projections
I’m going to take a few days off from our virtual tour. We’ve got two days left to go, we’ll pick up on that when we’ve got the analysis and discussion about referrals taken care of.
I plan to put another daily LID poll up either this afternoon or (if I don’t have time) then tonight after the girls are in bed.
The first chart (below) shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember that each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison.
Next we’ll take a look at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections.
Here are my projections:
The big question this month has to do with how the future will (or won’t) be impacted by the long span between referrals we just experienced. I think that one of three things could happen:
- Nothing. We see the next batch of referrals about about 32 days after this batch and we don’t see an increase in the number of babies referred.
- The next batch comes sooner than would ordinarily be expected, with a number of referrals that would normally be expected.
- The next batch comes at a regular interval but we see more babies than we would normally expect to see in a referral batch.
I have no rumors at this point to give us a clue as to what to expect. I will address the time frame possibilities in more detail tomorrow on the When post.
You can always find your way back to the Projections and When posts by clicking on the Analysis category in the lower right hand column.
I’ll end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.
October 13th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
Thanks RQ as always for all the helpful info! Can you help me understand the historical trends chart a bit better? I’m a little confused why this month and August rate a second-box-from-the-left scoring, whereas last month rates a third-box-from-the-left, presumably a better month.
This month was essentially the same number of families as last month under either poll, and there were significantly more in August under either poll.
Thank you!
Daddyjac (LID 5/16/06)
October 13th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
The second chart shows where previous cut-off dates fell in relation to my projections. It’s a way for you to judge how past projections have looked after the fact, so that you can view the future projections within the same lens.
October 13th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
I see. So the chart reflects not the absolute size (using poll numbers) of the referral batches, but instead how the referral batch compared to prior projections. So would I be correct that the first three boxex are essentially:
1. Smaller than RQ predicted for a Spr 2008 Small-sized batch
2. Exactly RQ’s prediction for Spr 2008 Small-sized batch
3. Bigger than RQ predicted for Spr 2008 Small, but smaller than predicted for Winter 2007 (horrid)
?
October 13th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
As to the “When?” question, it appears we may have to adjust our expectation about the length of time between referrals. While the average since 7/2007 is still 31 days, the average since 9/2008 has been 36 days. Since 12/29/2008 it has been 38 days. This 52-day interval is the longest since before June 2007. On the other hand, there have been some notable short intervals in the past too, namely Dec. 08-Jan. 09 (18 days and 24 days respectively) and Sept. 08 (two batches at 22 and 27 days each).
October 13th, 2009 at 2:05 pm
RQ, despite the frequent disappointments that CCAA provides us I have to say that your projections (Spring 2008 Small)actually provides a bit of comfort in that they provide us the possibility of a referral before the end of next year.
Looking at last months projection you hit the date on the head (March 28th).
LID: 06.22.06
October 13th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Given that your March 28 prediction was for September, and that referrals came out in October, nine days short of two months from the previous referrals, I think you should score this batch as worse than “Spring 2008 Small.” Doubling the time between referrals is just as much a slowdown as halfing the number of referrals.
In any case, thanks for doing the work that allows the rest of us to nit pick.
October 13th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
JustWait – remember that from what we’re told, referrals were completed and just sitting there for at least a week, possibly longer, because there was no one in the office with authority to sign them. Then add their holiday time onto that, and you get the long time between batches. I agree that if they don’t play catch up then this represents another kind of slow down… but they still kept their batch size the same and that is what the projection was for. And the referrals were completed at about the right time, even though they didn’t ship it out for several weeks.
If they continue to take this long between batches then yes, we’ll have to regroup. But I’m not ready to do that just yet.
It is my hope that they kept working and… ack, I’ll deal with the When stuff tomorrow.
October 13th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
Does the upcoming Trade Fair influence date of referrals or only travel plans? Do I hang my hat on 32 days or longer?
October 13th, 2009 at 7:10 pm
Imajine….we are still waiting to hear why we were not in our agencies batch–we have no indication as to why. Our LID is 3-28-06–with no referral.
They should prepare you that you may not get a referral when your LID comes up (since we weren’t the only family). I wonder how many families have been afffected by this? I hope it’s just an oversight and that they send another package out?! We are hoping to hear tomorrow…..no news today.
October 13th, 2009 at 7:16 pm
nicki3 – were you questioned during the review process?
Pretty much everyone who has to answer questions during review gets placed with a later LID group with their agency. Some agencies don’t tell their clients this, but they really should. I’ve talked about it on the blog quite a bit, but every month it seems that some still get broadsided with it.
If you weren’t asked questions then definitely stay on top of things with your agency to find out what the problem is.
October 13th, 2009 at 8:06 pm
Thanks RQ. We did have to clarify one thing (4 ys ago) but everything was fine. Our paperwork says we are 3/28 LID–our agency has not said otherwise. They seem as confused as we are. How do you know what LID you are then? After waiting this long..how do you clarify a LID? This is crazy….as if our wait has not been long enough. To think that our LID may be even later…
October 13th, 2009 at 8:16 pm
nicki3-
I think that I am the other family from your agency that did not receive their referral. I did have an issue in the reveiw room, but was assured several times from the agency that it would not affect my referral. I believed them and was completely devestated when they called me yesterday to tell me that my referral was not included (as well as one other family). I am very upset about this situation, especially since I asked my agency several times if this would affect my referral and even had them check with the offices in China to assure me that I would still be considered in the March 28 LID group. I have no idea how long this sets us back.
October 14th, 2009 at 2:58 am
rq, i’m a 9/06-er, hoping to appear on the projections box in the next 6 months or so. sooooooo…i was struck by looking at the NSN referral blogs that all except one of the kids is from jiangxi province….
i haven’t been keeping an eye on which provinces are referring the most kids these days, but as my 5-year-old is from anhui, i’m starting to pay more attention to where our next daughter will be from. have you, or anyone, been keeping an eye on where the referrals are coming from lately? i seem to think i’ve seen a lot of henan but i may be completely making it up…. and has hunan ever gotten back in the picture?
October 14th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
anytime anyone with my agency has been questioned in the review room, they do not get a referral with their lid group.
i don’t think the c2a2 gives a new LID either. i could be wrong about that. i think they tell agencies you may or may not be in the same lid group. i know one family that was just asked for a new passport photo in review and they still got held back.
so sorry this happened to you guys.
my agency had three 3/22 families that did not get referrals last batch. i don’t know if they got them this time around yet, but if they do i’ll let you know. i know a 3/7 family that didn’t get a referral in their group has since received one.
years ago when they were doing 30 days at a time it didn’t happen – it didn’t matter.
October 19th, 2009 at 1:46 am
Ugh! All I can say is ugh! I am thankful that I pursued domestic adoption on top of my LID of 9/20/06 which at this rate – seems like about another 5 years away.
Thanks Rumor Queen for doing the stats….although sometimes we don’t want to hear them:)