Projections
I forgot to list something on my To-Do list: I needed to add a 2010 Calendar to the Calendars page, which I’ve now done. You’d be surprised how often I have to refer back to that page.
I’m working on the poll results and hope to have them up later this afternoon. It might be tomorrow morning, but I’m hoping for this afternoon.
The first chart (below) shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember that each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison.
Next we’ll take a look at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections.
Here are my projections:
My biggest conundrum this month was how to label the columns for my projections. I finally labeled them as if we are going to see a new batch about every 30 to 35 days. If we keep seeing large intervals between times then obviously I’ll need to make some changes to that in the future.
Invariably, someone is going to ask why I bother doing more than two columns. The answer is simple: when the CCAA finally reaches the post-new-rules families and they may be referring a month (or more) at a time, and people start saying things are back to 2006 (and before) levels… I want to be able to show people whether the CCAA is or is not back to doing 2006 numbers. If I keep doing those columns then we’ll know for sure if they ever get back to those numbers. If I stop doing them then I’ll stop keeping track of what it would be on new polls and then we won’t know. I’m in this for the long haul, and that means I’m trying to look forward a few years to see what information we’re going to want to have when we get there.
You can always find your way back to the Projections and When posts by clicking on the Analysis category in the lower right hand column.
I’ll end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.
December 7th, 2009 at 10:43 am
RQ, I would gladly take your “Winter ’08 (Horrid)” column as it would make our referral around June/July/August 2010. That would be approximately 4 years from our LID of 06/22/06. I know it is a only a projection but it does bring me a bit of joy to know that we could be approximately 7 months from our referral. I also take a bit of comfort in that your projection have been historically accurate except when CCAA really did something out (way out) of the norm.
I will wait to see how the next 2 or 3 referrals go before I give my wife a report on how things are progressing. I do not want to get her hopes up for a sooner referral if it is not going to happen.
RQ, once again thanks for all that you do!
December 7th, 2009 at 10:49 am
Realistically, you should look at the first column, not the second column. That’s mostly where the CCAA has been hitting in recent months.
December 7th, 2009 at 11:50 am
As much as I want to believe, I just can’t…yet. With a September LID, this would probably put us in line for a referral at some point in 2011. I’m going to wait for the first few referral batches and then, possibly, get excited at the prospect of ‘only’ another year (and a bit) more of waiting.
December 7th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
RQ, duly noted. Considering how long we have been waiting the first column still looks good. The psychological effect of CCAA referring May 2006 in April/May 2010 is positive since that would be approximately one month from us as referrals go.
December 7th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
How is it possible that last 2 years referrals have hitted to the first column? There have been 30% decrease every year, so should’t there be one lower column by now?
December 7th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
The State Department has not yet released the 2009 numbers, so we don’t know the decrease in US Adoptions from China yet for 2009. The decreases you are seeing on the State Department page show up in the adjustments I had to make back in 2006 and 2007 and 2008. We don’t know the 2009 numbers yet.
December 7th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
I hit submit too soon… I wanted to add that with the time frame between referrals growing, it is possible for the annual number of children to go down without the number of children per referral batch going down significantly.
Also, by occasionally throwing one really really tiny batch in, but making the rest of them just slightly less than previous batches, that also keeps me from altering my numbers downward.
Whatever the reason, I have not had to move my numbers down since the summer of ’08. Take a look at the first chart in this post – from July of 08 until now the numbers are about the same.. with a few big months and a few tiny months thrown in. I’ve been able to use the same formula, without altering anything, and have been able to get very close to the cut-off date with my projections.
December 7th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
There were 2 batches in December in 2007 and 2008 – here’s hoping for 2 in 2009!
LID 4/4/06
December 7th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
kellyo! holy cow! Please let history repeat itself in 2009! Pretty Please With A Cherry On Top!!
catherine
lid 4/3/06 NEXT!
December 7th, 2009 at 6:15 pm
With an LID of 04/05/06 I am on pins and needles! Could we possibly be in the this NEXT batch?????? Is someone matching us with our baby now??????????? Is this REALLY going to happen for us???????? We just passed the 44 months LID this past Saturday but amazingly, I was calm and at peace. I’ve been telling myself we will get a referral in February just to protect my heart, but what if it happens SOONER?????? What if we get a second batch of referrals in December like someone suggested might happen????????? This is getting exciting now! YAY!!!!!
December 10th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
mommychinaadopt…..I’m in the same boat at you…we are LID 4-3-06 and to think we could be next just makes us CRAZY with joy! I am just going completely crazy inside with excitement. My hubby keeps telling me I need to calm down. That’s REALLY hard to do right now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WE have been praying and praying for a wonderful Christmas present, but I like you and thinking Jan/February just to be safe!
Have a great holiday!
And….RQ…thanks for all you do! I’m checking EVERY day!