The Backlog
In June of 2007 I figured the backlog was likely around 29,000. In March of this year I estimated that the backlog at around 23,750.
What is it now? Good question.
Let’s assume the CCAA is currently getting around 50 dossiers a month for the NSN program, and that they referred around 150 NSN babies a month since the last time I figured the backlog. That brings the backlog down by around 100 families per month (not per batch, since there have only been eight batches in ten months: I divided the yearly figure by 12, so this is per month). That brings us down to 22,750. But that’s not what is bringing the backlog down, it is attrition that is bringing the backlog down. We figured attrition at 30% back then, and now it looks like attrition is at 43% gone. Using the bigger attrition number, that brings the backlog down to around 18,300.
Using our Projection Estimates, at 1,000 NSN referrals a year, it will take another 18 years to get through the current backlog if there are no new dossiers. At 1100 referrals a year, it will take another 16 years to get through the backlog. At 1400 referrals a year it will take another 13 years. Based on the batch we are about to get, I’d say that 1,000 NSN referrals a year might be a bit too optimistic.
Even if the backlog is now down to 12,000 (that’s the lowest estimate I’ve seen an agency give, most agencies are up in the 15,000 to 18,000 range when they give an estimate)… anyway, even if we use 12,000 as the backlog figure then we’re still looking at an additional 8 to 12 years (or more) to get through that backlog. Unless, of course, attrition continues to rapidly bring those numbers down. Which is what I think the CCAA is counting on at this point.
No matter how I do the math, it ain’t pretty. I really wish I could come to the blog to post really good news for everyone.
December 28th, 2009 at 10:01 am
No words.
M2I
http://www.MyChineseShamrock.blogspot.com
December 28th, 2009 at 10:15 am
Thus, the program is actually shutting itself down. Actions speak louder than words.
5/06
December 28th, 2009 at 10:18 am
My U.S. agency reported to us (LID 4/3/06) last night “The CCAA has updated their website and it states that referrals have been made through April 3rd.”
December 28th, 2009 at 10:28 am
Definitely not what I was hoping for!!!
December 28th, 2009 at 10:37 am
Our LID is 4-3-06. Any definite news as to when we might see a picture??? It’s been a long 4 years, and I just want to see her face!!!
December 28th, 2009 at 10:52 am
I have finally accepted that there will be no speed up. It has only taken me 3.5 years to get there…
December 28th, 2009 at 11:00 am
I’m with Mom2Isabel….No words! I feel so bad for everyone waiting…..
Our LID is 4-3-06 and we’ve waited 4 years…..we’ve YET to hear from our agency as our main social worker is off until the New Year and the ’sub’ is off until tomorrow. I’ve emailed and called, but I guess we have to wait.
Hoping and praying for good things for ALL of us!
December 28th, 2009 at 11:19 am
RQ, I know it must be tough being the bearer of bad news but we come here because we know you give us the facts and reality of the situation unlike our adoption agencies, well at least my agency.
I looks like we are in for a net “1 day” of referrals with April 1 & 2 being weekend days. So, so sad!!!!
December 28th, 2009 at 11:47 am
RQ dont ever feel bad for what you have to tell us. At least you talk with us, I think the general concensus is that our agencies dont tell us anything……
Also RQ do you have a guess as to when they will be finished with April 2006?? I know it is just a guess….
Kristy
4/21/06
December 28th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
Long time lurker, finally decided to join and post. I’ve tried to understand the stats and where that places me in the scheme of things, but still am not sure about how long a wait I can plan on- other than it being a long time. If anyone knows what the est. wait time is based on my LID (4/19/07), please let me know.
December 28th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
Our agency is open today, they said that the Fed-X runs in the morning….just waiting for a call!!! I would “think” that they have been mail, because the box was changed.
Waiting for a CAll
Teresa
LID 4/03/06
December 28th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
……… and so we wait.
Come on team, let’s continue pushing forward!! Our babies are depending on us!!
RQ – just please tell us that “something is in the air” SOON!!!!
December 28th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
Still waiting for our daughter…. Praying for better news!
7-31-06
December 28th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
Referrals are at our agency in St. Louis. About 45 mintues ago they said we should receive our email in about an hour!
Angie Swanigan
04/03/06!!!!
December 28th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
Angie – Please e-mail us with your agency! Ours is St. Louis also — maybe we have the same one? cminkle1@yahoo.com
Our LID is 4/3/06!!
December 28th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
So sad. It’s just unbelievable that they continue to accept applications! Congratulations to those about to get the call (hopefully) today! :-) You are in for a fabulous ride.
December 28th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
We just got our referral e-mailed to us!!!! More from us later!!!
December 28th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
Our agency is NC emailed that they received the POSTING from CCAA of 4/3/06, but have no word on referrals being sent to the US. Our regular social worker and ’sub’ are out of the office, so this came from another person. She said the ’sub’ will be contacting us tomorrow! I sure hope we get referral!
Those of you that got referrals today…..congrats!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We are 4-3-06 and beside ourselves with excitement.
December 28th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
We just got a call from our KY agency she is here
Please add our blog
http://ladybugsandhugs.blogspot.com
Wait Hope And Dream
Teresa
LID 4/03/06
December 28th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
congrats to all the 4/3 people!
if this batch is any indication of what’s to come, 1,000 NSN referrals is very optimistic…that would be getting into june. at three days per month we’d be lucky if they sent out 500 referrals for the entire year…
December 28th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
Huntergirl we are with the same agency and hopefully since other referrals are in fact arriving, we may yet year something before this day is done. Keeping my fingers crossed.
4/3/06. Waiting by the computer and the phone!
December 28th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
Yeah for the referrals arriving! I have goosebumps for you all!!!! I never thought we would get to see April 06. march seemed like forever!!!!
December 28th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
we’re really in trouble if the next batch is small because that’s followed by CNY and we know the batch after that is super-small.
December 28th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
We are keeping our fingers crossed for you all and hope next year referrals move along faster.
And always remember, it is one of the most beautiful things you will ever experience.
http://sgroiland.blogspot.com
December 28th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
This is so disheartening but we have seen the writing on the wall for a very long time. Again, NSN is becoming obsolete and SN is becoming their main program. They are doing everything they can to make SN fast and easy and are even notifying agencies when the list is coming out. They are bending over backwards for SN but phasing out NSN.
One question, I have heard of people who are stuck in the backlog who cannot switch to SN even if they wanted to. Is that really happening? Can people who want to go SN route not able to based on their agency? And if that is the case, can they switch agencies?
I just am searching for some ray of hope for the late 2006 to 2007 and beyond.
Christy :)
ps congrats to all the 4/3 folks!! Referral day was one of the best days of my life!!!!
December 28th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
This is what my agency reported last week to us.
This is numbers within their agency so that will give you a percentage of adoptions:
-13 from the healthy program, and 43 from the special needs program
international adoptions to the United States
-China came in 1st, with 3001 children, and Ethiopia came in 2nd with 2277
December 28th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
I’m so old that I might be the first person to get a referral after I’m dead. I can barely realistically see waiting another two years, much less 12 more years. Thousands of dollars that I cannot get back… Thousands of dollars that I could have just DONATED to some worthy cause that would have been better used.
December 28th, 2009 at 4:50 pm
kcbock, that is correct that not everyone can access the SN program. In my country IA is run by one government department per state. If that department chooses not to become involved in the SN program then their clients cannot access the program. There are no privately run agencies and you can only apply to your own states government department.
Regards,
Long_March
December 28th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
Hi RQ,
are you able to estimate from your data what proportion of the 18,000 backlog makes up the April 06 to pre-May 07 rule change applications versus the post-May 07 to now applications?
Kind Regards,
Long_March
December 28th, 2009 at 7:26 pm
I’m quite new in this web. LID 23-june-06, writting from Spain. Not very familiar how you calculate number of files closed in each batch/month and if this is only US or worldwide, but if it is a kind of help, there has been 33 files closed with LID 3-apr-06 not assigned to any adoption agency (technically called “Protocolo publico”) to Spanish families. Source: http://www.afac.info asignaciones tag.
Regards
koldollorca