Sorry I seem to have pulled a disappearing act. Lots of things going on at work right now and may continue this way for another week or two as I approach a couple of deadlines. I don’t think I’ll be gone for days at a time again, though. I should be around several times a day to at least check on things and post if I see any rumors to speak of.

Now, onto some analysis: Let’s take a historical look of how the raw numbers have fallen in the past as compared to this month. This chart shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember that you can’t compare numbers from different polls. It’s like looking at a citywide map and statewide map and trying to say that an inch on this one took ten minutes so an inch on that one should take ten minutes. It doesn’t work. Still, you can get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone.

There appear to have been some expedites in this batch, so it may not be quite as small as it first appears. Not a lot of expedites, but enough that we should take it into consideration.

Now we need to talk about the columns on my projections. The original good/bad scenario was based on what they were doing back in the summer of 2006. In June of 2007 I added the Horrid column, and in June of 2008 I added the “Spring 2008 Small” column. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections.

And finally, here are my projections:

And to end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.

I’ve had a bunch of work emergencies pop up.

I know I’ve normally put out an Analysis by now, but it is probably going to be next week before I get a chance to do it.

The following families have pictures!
For Chandler With Love
Jodi & Tom Shaw
And Merrilee Makes Three
Littlemisunshine
I dream of Kassidy
Jade
Eva Grace
Casey
Willow!!
A Clear Sign
Landyn
mcmanusadoptionjourney

The following families have received their referral, but no picture yet:
Pickalilly

The following families are expecting their referral in this batch:
Journey to Annaliz
Waiting for Mia

The following families in the SN program would like to share their news:
Our Leap of Faith
Journey to Della Grace
Hannah

The following sites have sound and are not work safe:
Filling a Place No One Else Could Fill
Notre rencontre d’amour

If you are expecting a referral in this batch and would like your blog listed on the Babies!!! post, please list it in the comments to this post.

Please list the name of the blog and the URL of the blog.

Also, if you have a SN adoption you would like to share, feel free to share that with us as well.

I think we can take the 25th as cut off to an R5 now.

Congrats to all who will be included!

 
 
I’ll also give it an R3 that there will be some expedites in this batch. It has now come from several sources.

Referrals did not arrive in all of Europe, but at least one agency in one country made phone calls late Friday. The LID’s were for the 23rd.