I have an email from someone telling me the CCCWA is matching. I don’t see any rumors out there saying this, though.

Anyone else hearing rumors?

I know we have a few marathon runners amongst us; I hope everyone is safe after the senseless bombings in Boston yesterday.

No one with a referral posted their blog in the comments. This marks the first month we don’t have a Babies!!! post.

I posted results from the new poll yesterday, but it will likely be a few months before I begin using the new poll numbers, as I’ll need to get an idea of how they fit into my formulas.

The first chart shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison.

Hopefully, the average figures I’ve recently added to this chart give an idea of why I don’t use a new poll as soon as we have it. I need to figure out how much weight to give the new poll, and how it fits (and doesn’t fit) into the ratios already created with former polls, before I can begin using it.

Next, we’ll take a look at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections — the X shows where the actual referrals fell. In those cases where I’ve added a new column and things would have looked different had that column been in place at the time, I’ve used a ~ to show where they would have fallen on the new column.

I was one day short this time — not enough to make me change the numbers in my formula.

Here are the projections:

 
 
You can always find your way back to the Projections and When posts by clicking on the Analysis category in the lower right hand column.

I’ll end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCCWA continuing to do what they’ve been doing. There’s no way of knowing if they’ll continue to follow recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.

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I’ve posted the results for the latest poll on the Poll Results Page.

I’ve also put together a chart showing the totals from the past six polls. As you can see, the hills and valleys mostly correlate to each other — but the hills keep shrinking. As the total pool shrinks, each poll becomes less meaningful. I’ll continue to do them periodically, but my weighted average will be influenced more by the older polls than the newer.

If you don’t see the graph, click the “more” link. Read the rest of this entry »

The last 12 referral batches arrived at 26, 28, 32, 24, 27, 37, 32, 31, 35, 27, and 35 day intervals.

The shortest time frame is 24 days, the longest is 38. We see 27, 32, and 35 twice.

The average over the last year is 31 the median is 32. If we throw out the two highest and lowest the average is 31 and 34. If we look at the last six months… 33 and 35. The past three months is 32 and 35.

Looking at the numbers, the soonest we’d expect to see them this month would be Monday, April 29th, the latest would be Monday, May 13th. The most likely date of arrival, based on the numbers, is either Friday May 3rd or Monday May 6th.

EDIT: How could I have forgotten May Day? The CCCWA will work Saturday and Sunday, April 27th and 28th, and then be off for three days, Monday through Wednesday, April 29th to May 1st. Since it only takes a few days to organize, match, and mail now, I’m not sure this will make a huge difference in timing. They’ve been edging up in time between referrals, but who knows whether they’ll take care of it before the holiday, or wait until they return?

Looks like the cut-off is the 24th.

I’ll get to the When and Projections posts sometime this week — hopefully tomorrow, but things are hectic with my having been off playing for a week. My children are the two most wonderful kids on the planet. I know constant vacation would get old after a while, but I think it’d take a pretty long time, and one week wasn’t enough.

If you are included in this batch and want your blog listed on a Babies! post, please list your blog URL and blog name in the comments to this post.

I’ll also be closing the poll sometime today. If you are still expecting to accept your NSN referral when it finally arrives, and you haven’t logged your LID yet, please do so.

The rumor is the next cut-off is October 25th, which is pretty much what we expected. One European agency has the information on their website; I’ll give this a strong R3 at the moment, but it won’t take much to move it higher.

If you’re expecting a referral this time around, or you’re in another program and want to share your news, please list blog name and blog URL in the comments.

And if you’re still waiting, please click here to vote in the latest LID poll. I’ll close the poll once we begin seeing phone calls. If you’ve already voted, please do not vote again.