I’m sure everyone has heard about the traffic jam outside of Beijing, but did you know that it “miraculously” cleared up? The funny thing is, when Letterman started joking about it last night during the monologue and I realized how much of an embarrassment this would be to the Powers That Be in Beijing, I looked at RK and said, “It will be gone by morning. They aren’t going to let this remain a joke.” He didn’t think so. Perhaps I should have made a little wager with him about it. Reading between the lines, it sounds like officials let more trucks into Beijing than they normally would in order to clear some of it up, they are routing some traffic over different routes, and are also keeping people off of the road from the origin point. So, the traffic problem hasn’t been truly fixed, but the vehicles on the road are gone, the highway no longer looks like a huge parking lot with people playing games in the shade under the trucks, so the media coverage (and jokes) will stop.
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There is a “blockbuster” Chinese movie out called Aftershock, a movie spanning the time between the Tangshan earthquake and the Sichuan earthquake.
Mr. Feng’s real-life wife, Xu Fan, plays Li Yuanni, who in the aftermath of the Tangshan earthquake is faced with a parent’s nightmare decision: Rescuers tell her they can save only one of her 7-year-old twins, both buried in the rubble. Hysterical with grief, she chooses her son, Fang Da, who is rescued, though he loses an arm. The daughter, Fang Deng (Zhang Zifeng), is recovered later, and pronounced dead; the frantic and despondent mother puts her beside the corpse of her husband, then carries their son to find medical help. But the little girl is actually still alive, and when she’s found later by a childless couple—army doctors—they assume she’s an earthquake orphan, adopt her and take her away. Decades pass, another earthquake strikes, and brother (now a successful businessman, played by Li Chen) and sister (a doctor, played by Zhang Jingchu) both head for Sichuan as volunteers.
You can read more about it here. And there is a good synopsis of the movie here. If you plan to see the movie you probably don’t want to read the Wikipedia link.
I’ve tried to look around the ‘net, see what is being said. There are some people who are upset that more of the history of the time isn’t talked about. I’ve also found a review that talks about the mother choosing the son over the daughter, given from the viewpoint of a young lady who feels pain at that, and talks about how it feels to be a tier under her brothers, simply because she is a girl.
Last week, as we were trying to get ready one morning, GlitterGirl (now in the throes of Tweenhood) screamed at me “You don’t understand!!!!” and then ran to her room in tears. This because she wanted to wear last year’s shorts that are now too short for the dress code, and I told her she could not. After counting to ten in my head, I went to her room and sat on the floor, leaned back against the bookcase, and quietly said, “Scream at me again and you’ll lose your computer for a week. Talk to me, explain to me what I don’t understand. Help me understand.”
She did, and I didn’t treat her feelings as inconsequential. We found another outfit for that day, and this weekend we went in search of another pair of shorts that match perfectly with the shirt she wanted to wear. It actually is a special shirt (long story) and she wants to be able to wear it as a special shirt, not just with some jeans or jean shorts. I didn’t get it, now I do. And now she has a skort that matches the shirt. Problem solved. And now I understand.
I hope that I never shut her down so that she thinks there is no way I can understand something important. I’m white, so of course I can’t understand what it’s like to not be white. If she yelled “You Don’t Understand!” at me about how it feels to be Chinese, she’d be right. I don’t understand. I’ve tried to learn as much as I can, and I hope I can help her with anything that comes up… I can learn a good deal about it, but I can never actually understand.
But I don’t think she would ever yell at me about race. It’s easier to lose it over shorts, over the not-quite-as-important-stuff, than it is about the really big stuff. From what I understand, if kids truly think their parents are so far away from being able to understand that they will never be able to, then their parents will never have a single clue that they have issues around being non-white in a world of white people. Makes perfect sense to me, there is one issue in my life that my mother never had a clue about, and still doesn’t. She wouldn’t be capable of understanding, so I never made the attempt. It’s easy for me to understand that if GG thinks I’m not capable of understanding something then I’ll never know there is an issue at all. We’re back to the “things you don’t know, that you don’t know you don’t know” thing again.
GG and I have talked about race, and I feel comfortable that I know how she feels. I’ve found ways to bring it up that seem natural – waiting for something in our regular conversation that is a good lead in to it, or talking about it after seeing a TV show or movie that helps us to talk about it. For instance, after watching Save the Last Dance we had a talk about how Sara might have felt, moving to a school and neighborhood where there weren’t many other white kids. And then we talked about how some of the other characters felt about Sara and Derek “liking” each other. From conversations like these, I do feel that I have a good handle on how she feels about race, and right at this moment she has more issues around being the shortest person in the class than she does about being Asian. I suppose it makes sense, a little under half the class is white and about 15% are Asian, so being non-white and being of Asian heritage isn’t that big of a deal… but being the shortest in her class… that does set her apart. The thing is, she’s also the fastest runner in her class, and is one of the strongest people in her class (girls and boys, not just the girls – she’s really strong). So we’ve talked about how she’s this powerhouse, packaged in a small package, and how she should be proud of that. I’ve also gone through my mom’s photo albums with GG, looking at old pictures of me with my friends, so she can see that I was always the shortest in my classes, too. And we’ve talked about how it feels. That one, I do understand, and I can commiserate with her and then help her feel good about it.
But, here’s the thing. If she were going to our local school, the one she’s zoned for, then I think she’d be dealing with being Chinese and she’d be dealing with being short. Her identity would be tied up in both things. Right now she’s cool with being of Asian heritage, it’s not a huge issue – it’s just part of who she is. I’m glad she’s in an environment where she’s only dealing with being short as an issue. Eventually she’ll deal with the race stuff more. Based on the ages that kids are supposed to go through various things, I know that the majority of her thoughts about race are yet to come. I hope I can keep the lines of communication open with her about it.
We do not sit around talking about being adopted, or talking about being of Asian heritage, very often. Seriously, most of our days are taken up with what to eat, getting homework done, talking about who did what at school, and what went on between GG and her boyfriend. They’ve “liked” each other for a little over two years now, this is actually serious stuff. When your kid asks for advice about when it’s okay to kiss, and how you’ll know if he’s wanting to french kiss or not… then you know you’ve kept those doors of communication open. Right? I hope so, anyway. She’s thinking of this stuff two years earlier than I did. But my mom didn’t have a clue about any of it. No way I could have talked to her about it. (GG and I also talked about teen pregnancy when we watched Save the Last Dance, BTW.)
Some people asked for ideas about how to open up communication with their kids about race. I think that most of our really good conversations have branched out after we watched a movie or TV show together. Or as she’s reading a book (mostly the classics) that have racial content in them and I want to talk to her about what she’s reading, help her get a handle on the ideas she’s reading in those classics that she’s (thankfully) not yet encountered in her own life.
There are lots of subjects that can be uncomfortable to talk about, but we have to do it anyway – drugs, smoking, drinking, kissing, peer pressure, how babies are made, teen pregnancy, STD’s, race, adoption. One of GG’s friends has an eating disorder (to the point of needing professional intervention) and now we’ve had to start talking about that, as well. For those of you with two and three year old children, some of this seems so very far away. It may be that for now you should just work to keep an open mind, and work to not shut communication down about anything. If you’ve got a two or three year old then right now the most difficult thing to talk about is probably adoption, but there are books that help with that (I Love You Like Crazy Cakes, Rosie’s Family, etc). It’s good practice, and it’s very important to start those conversations early. When your child is a tween and rapidly approaching teenhood though, the conversations get much more difficult.
As GG gets older there are more and more times I am reminded that I don’t always have the answers. Sometimes I have no idea what advice to give. But I’ve learned that if I listen, really listen with my heart, then I can usually come up with the questions to ask that help GlitterGirl find her own answers.
Wow – looks like the consulate has opened up more slots. You can read their notice here.
They also listed upcoming holidays, which I’m going to copy here, just to make sure we’ve got a record of them when the page there changes to another URL.
U.S. Labor Day: Sept. 6 (Consulate Closed)
Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival: Sept 22 (Consulate Closed)
New Year’s Day: Jan. 1 (Friday, Dec. 31, Consulate Closed)
Thanks to everyone who contacted their congressional representatives. It sounds like they’ve opened up more slots for the month of September. Once we reach the point where people are trying to make appointments in October we may have to make the request again.
The first chart shows the size (in poll numbers) of the previous batches and this batch. Please remember that each poll has to stand by itself, you can’t compare numbers from different polls. We can still get an idea of how the sizes of the batches have gone, but you can’t do a direct comparison.
You can, however, see that the last seven batches have been in a similar range. Historically the numbers have deviated a good deal, I find it interesting that they are now holding rather steady.
Next we’ll take a look at how reality has looked in hindsight with the projections. The graph below shows where past referral batches have fallen on my projections, the X shows where the actual referrals fell. An X in the Spr 2008 column means the referral exactly matched that projection. An X between two columns means the reality fell between those two projections.
A few months ago I made the decision to add a new, smaller, column. I’ve been fiddling with the numbers for that column and think I’m close to where I need to be now, but it’s possible they will still need tweaking. Keep that in mind until I tell you I’ve landed on numbers I’m happy with.
Here are my projections:
You can always find your way back to the Projections and When posts by clicking on the Analysis category in the lower right hand column.
I’ll end this with my standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.
I’m told that the consulate is once again backed up with appointments, and that people are having to delay travel because there aren’t enough appointment slots available.
When this has happened before we’ve been able to get them to open the schedule up a bit more by getting our congress people involved.
It can be just a simple note explaining that babies and children are having to spend longer than necessary in an orphanage because of delays at the US Consulate in Guangzhou. Explain that there aren’t enough appointments available for the exit visa, and ask that your senators and representatives talk to someone who can open up the schedule to allow for more appointments.
And now for the question this raises in my head… does this mean more babies are being allowed out of China? I hope that’s exactly what it means, but I don’t think we have enough information to deduce that for sure. It’s possible that the consulate had too many time slots with not very many people so they dropped some time slots and just went overboard and dropped too many. Or, it’s possible the consulate hasn’t made any changes and suddenly there aren’t enough slots. I don’t know which is the case.
The last 12 referral batches arrived at 32, 31, 52, 51, 27, 34, 28, 35, 35, 28, 38, and 32 day intervals.
The shortest time frame is 27 days, the longest is 52.
The average is 35, median is 33. If we throw out the two highest and two lowest then the average is 32 and the median is 32.
If we look purely at the numbers then we’d expect to see referrals between Monday, September 13 and Thursday, September 23. The most likely date of arrival would be either Friday, September 17 or Monday, September 20.
The Moon Festival (or Mid-Autumn Festival) is September 22, and I believe the CCAAA will be off that Wednesday and Thursday. Possibly Friday, I’m not so sure about that. It is likely referrals will have already been mailed by then, so this isn’t likely to affect this batch, and probably not the next one, either.
It is possible we could begin to see first rumors the week of September 6th (please note I said the week of, not necessarily on that day), and I would hope to begin seeing some more substantial rumors the week of September 13th.
we had a talk about how Sara might have felt, moving to a school and neighborhood where there weren’t many other white kids. And then we talked about how some of the other characters felt about Sara and Derek “liking” each other. From conversations like these, I do feel that I have a good handle on how she feels about race, and right at this moment she has more issues around being the shortest person in the class than she does about being Asian. I suppose it makes sense, a little under half the class is white and about 15% are Asian, so being non-white and being of Asian heritage isn’t that big of a deal… but being the shortest in her class… that does set her apart. The thing is, she’s also the fastest runner in her class, and is one of the strongest people in her class (girls and boys, not just the girls – she’s really strong). So we’ve talked about how she’s this powerhouse, packaged in a small package, and how she should be proud of that. I’ve also gone through my mom’s photo albums with GG, looking at old pictures of me with my friends, so she can see that I was always the shortest in my classes, too. And we’ve talked about how it feels. That one, I do understand, and I can commiserate with her and then help her feel good about it.
, 
, etc). It’s good practice, and it’s very important to start those conversations early. When your child is a tween and rapidly approaching teenhood though, the conversations get much more difficult. 
